The Tribune

THE Department of Statistics is now being dragged to the Mad Hatter’s Ball. First it was the crime statistics, now it appears that the Department of Statistics and National Insurance are out of step with the score sheet set for them by the politicians.

In the final analysis, it all boils down to Bahamians no longer having faith in their politicians. They certainly no longer believe what they tell them— and as for the statistics – well, for those who live in this community, they no longer make sense.

Several months ago, Bahamians were invited to accept that crime was going down — numbers were dragged out to prove it. However, almost every time this mantra was repeated, not one, but several murders followed. For example, this weekend alone three men were murdered, three others, having been shot, were in hospital, while another three were also in hospital with stab wounds. In addition, the death in a house fire on Thursday of retired civil servant, Maud McCartney, was classified as a homicide. In three days, three murders, three shootings, three stabbings and arson that took an innocent life — and yet crime is on the decline.

Looking over the statistics for the seven months of this year, it is indeed an insult for any politician to expect the average person in this community to believe that “statistics show that most major crime categories have decreased significantly”. The cynics among us believe that the statistics are being manipulated.

If serious crime is going down, it has to be attributed to the skills of the dedicated doctors in the operating rooms who are in fact saving lives, thus reducing the murder count. If it weren’t for the doctors, murder statistics would frighten Bahamians from their easy chairs.

Ever since making his unforgettable pre-election promise in April last year when he rallied the troops in Hatchet Bay, Eleuthera with the words: “Vote PLP. Vote for a PLP government that is ready to create 10,000 immediate new jobs for Bahamians,” Deputy Prime Minister Philip “Brave” Davis is desperate to find the magic potion to enable him to deliver on his promise. If Bahamians had been aware, not only of our local troubles, but also of the world’s economic crisis they would have never fallen for Mr Davis’ promises. But a desperate people, often make foolish mistakes. Believing that Mr Davis — or anyone for that matter — in that economic climate could keep such a promise was living in a fool’s paradise.

Standing in the wings ready to rescue his friend from his embarrassment was none other than Labour Minister Shane Gibson. Through National Insurance (NIB) contributions, he boasted, he could prove that the 30,000 unemployed before the May 2012 election were now employed. Mr Gibson was confident that National Insurance contributions was one of “a few ways we can tell how many jobs are operating in the Bahamas”. Mr Gibson’s figures were what Mr Davis had relied on to boast of his accomplishments.

Not only had Mr Davis kept his promise, but he had exceeded it by 20,000 according to Mr Gibson’s NIB count. But then there was the embarrassment of a 60-page document, funded by Bahamas Information Services to mark the government’s two years in office. In that government publication it stated: “Almost 7,000 new jobs created as Christie government marks 2nd anniversary in office.”

So where was poor Mr Davis now? He had promised 10,000 jobs immediately. At the end of two years, government’s own publication acknowledged 7,000 new jobs. But then, a look in Mr Gibson’s corner, we find 30,000 unemployed now employed. Somebody certainly had a lot of explaining to do — all eyes turned to Mr Gibson.

It seems that Mr Gibson, either had not understood the figures, or had failed to make himself clear in his first statement to the House. He was now backtracking by explaining that of those 30,000 jobs, some might have been a “mixture” of previously employed people and also of employed who had transferred to new jobs from their current jobs. Obviously there was duplication in the count. Maybe some, who had been counted as unemployed had been working for years without insurance, then suddenly payments started. In this situation, they could not be counted as new employees, but how could one tell?

And then out comes the Department of Statistics report showing that 8,390 net jobs were added to the economy since May 2012. Still not Mr Davis’ promised immediate 10,000. Obviously by his comments, Mr Davis was displeased. He does not seem to understand why the National Insurance figures and Department of Statistic figures do not agree. And so, it would seem, that in future there will be political meddling.

This is a matter that Mr Davis believes should be addressed before the next labour force survey is conducted. “They ought to find the way and mechanism to ensure that there is no disparity in what they are saying and what NIB is saying,” he declared.

The day they find that way, Mr Davis will know how to turn apples into oranges and oranges into apples. As that day will never come, we hope he will understand that he is dealing with two separate entities and in the words of Kipling “never the twain shall meet.”

The more they play with the figures, the more thinking Bahamians will understand that they really do not know what they are doing.