The Tribune

THUNDERSTORM activity associated with a strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, is threatening to develop into a tropical storm later on Monday or overnight according to the National Hurricane Centre in Miami.

The system is reported to be producing winds of 40mph to 45mph and satellite and ship observations early on Monday suggest that it is becoming more organised. A US Air Force Reserve reconnaisance plane is due to investigate the system on Monday afternoon.

“If this development trend continues, a tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight as the system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean Sea at 20 to 25 mph,” the NHC reported. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Tropical storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight.”

The NHC forecasts the chances of the system developing into a tropical storm as 80 per cent over the next 48 hours and 90 per cent over the next five days. It is forecast to track across the Yucatan peninsula and southern Mexico.