By NEIL HARTNELL
Tribune Business Editor
nhartnell@tribunemedia.net
The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) believes that 2016 is “rich” with economic opportunity in the Bahamas, after the Government undertook numerous reforms that laid the groundwork for renewed growth.
In an analysis that may shock, and even dumbfound, many in the private sector who are enduring a far different reality, the IDB’s latest Caribbean Quarterly Bulletin painted an extremely rosy picture of the Bahamas’ economic prospects.
“The groundwork laid presents a positive picture for 2016,” the IDB said, referring to the Government’s reform efforts.
“With the arduous demands and pains of 2015 now behind, the foundation has been laid for a 2016 that is rich with new mobile options, lower electricity rates, universal health care, and maybe a new mega-resort, among other things.”
The hard-pressed Christie administration will likely be delighted to receive such an endorsement, but several strands of the IDB’s optimism have already run into difficulty or been slowed down, while the benefits of several initiatives will only materialise over the medium to long-term.
For starters, little to no progress has been made in resolving the $3.5 billion Baha Mar impasse, and the management contract for the Bahamas Electricity Corporation (BEC) has only just been signed with PowerSecure International.
The Government’s mobile liberalisation timetable has already suffered several delays and, with the second license and associated agreements yet to be issued and concluded, the new operator’s likely launch has already been pushed back to the 2016 second half.
As for universal health care (UHC), the Government’s planned National Health Insurance (NHI) launch is likely to be delayed, according to ministers and officials, amid little buy-in by stakeholders and differences over the scheme’s merits.
In a nod to the downside, the IDB conceded: “The IMF’s October 2015 World Economic Outlook foresees strong economic recovery for the Bahamas in 2016 and 2017.
“However, given the delays in the Baha Mar opening, economic recovery is probably going to be slower, with acceleration of the economy being delayed for one or two years.
“Fiscal outcomes, including debt-to-GDP, are also expected to be adversely affected by the weaker-than-expected growth performance,” the IDB added.
“A resolution of the plan to complete Baha Mar will boost economic performance. Even though it will be later than projected, the eventual opening of the Baha Mar property is expected to give a strong boost to the Bahamian economy. Stronger growth will also support the government’s fiscal consolidation, as well as facilitate a reduction in the debt-to-GDP ratio and a more robust build-up of buffers against shocks.”
Based on latest forecasts, it appears likely that the earliest Baha Mar’s economic impact will be felt is 2018, and that depends on how quickly the project’s financier, the China Export-Import Bank, reaches a deal with a new investor/purchaser.
Comments
birdiestrachan 8 years, 1 month ago
Well Neil there is no doubt that you will not want to hear anything good about the Bahamas. But IDB has said something good about the Bahamas. and it must hurt you really bad. But is it all right you will just have to get over it.
The IDB works with facts but with you dear man facts do not matter it is all about politics
banker 8 years ago
Birdie, please get away from the computer, and go and put your PLP burka on.
birdiestrachan 8 years ago
It is all right if you can not stand the truth.
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