Britain's general election may be about 'Brexit' but, Peter Young writes, domestic issues matter as well . . .
Campaigning for the General Election in Britain on June 8 has been in full swing but has inevitably been overshadowed by last week's terror attack in Manchester.
Electioneering was suspended for some days but has now resumed and there is renewed focus on the manifestos of the two main parties, the Conservatives and Labour, which had already been published.
These describe their respective positions on a range of policy issues affecting many aspects of life in Britain and are of major concern to voters, even though this election is mainly about the nation's departure from the European Union (EU) following the referendum last June. So, with each party having set out its stall, this is an interesting moment to take stock of developments.
In the normal cycle, following David Cameron's victory for the Tories in 2015, the next election would have been in 2020. But Prime Minister Theresa May has called this latest poll in order to achieve greater stability, unity and certainty across-the-board, and also, specifically, to strengthen her negotiating hand in the forthcoming 'Brexit' negotiations.
The main conclusion from her stance on these is that, assuming the Tories win the election, 'Brexit' is going to happen for sure despite the earlier uncertainty. Meanwhile, Labour's position on Europe remains unclear though it is apparently in favour of 'Brexit' generally.
Until last week, the Tories had a substantial lead over Labour and most pundits were anticipating a landslide victory next month. The gap has now narrowed, with Labour surging ahead in the latest opinion polls despite accusations of a weak response to the terror threat after the Manchester attack, partly because of a backlash against controversial social care provisions in the Conservative manifesto.
It is clear from Labour's manifesto that the Left has tightened its grip on the party, which is now committed to huge tax and spending increases. These include higher social benefits and other public expenditure, which would also require substantial capital borrowing together with a raid on businesses and the better-off in society. It also plans nationalisation of the rail, energy and water industries and would institute a defence review which could result in the abandonment of Britain's nuclear deterrent.
Seen as lacking economic competence, today's Labour Party appears now to be set on turning the clock back to the bad old days of the 1970s in wholesale rejection of the stance adopted by New Labour which brought Tony Blair to power in an overwhelming victory in the 1997 election.
The indications are that all this does not resonate well with large numbers of people who also consider that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn lacks the qualities required of a Prime Minister and could not anyway realistically lead the 'Brexit' negotiations - not least because Labour would have to enter some sort of coalition with the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party and would be stymied by them because of their preference to remain in the EU.
As such, Labour's immediate future looks bleak and, barring some unforeseen development, the Conservatives are still expected to win the election comfortably, if not by the landslide predicted earlier.
In these circumstances, the Conservative manifesto deserves greater scrutiny as an indication of how the country is likely to be governed during the next five years. Those looking for similarities between Mrs May's approach and that of former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher may be surprised by the explicit rejection in the manifesto of 'untrammelled free markets' and of the 'cult of selfish individualism' together with a commitment to embrace a classless society by positively doing away with social division, injustice, unfairness and inequality (surely a Utopian dream) in a form of Toryism which places greater emphasis on the community and social cohesion and on the good that government can do in people's lives.
Compared to Lady Thatcher's fundamental belief in libertarianism, free markets, tax cuts, nationalism, privatisation and deregulation, Mrs May has already shown herself to be less pro-business and more interventionist. Less ideological and more pragmatic, her aim seems to be to spread opportunity, promote workers' rights and increase the power of the state, including a bigger role in the lives of what she has termed 'the just about managing'.
This may reflect the current mood of the country, but many of her own party believe that the individualism which she rejects is the wellspring of the profit motive which drives capitalism.
Opposition has grown to the Tories' proposals for reform of certain social care, including forcing the elderly to fund the entire cost of long-term care (now modified with introduction of a possible cap), means testing the winter fuel allowance for pensioners and scrapping the so-called triple lock on annual increases of the state pension. While this approach may lose some Tory votes, the question remains whether, as a leader on the centre left of politics, Mrs May will be able to maintain the strength, stability and unity of her party which is her declared aim in calling a snap election.
Notwithstanding the importance of such domestic matters, 'Brexit' remains the prime issue which will define the success or failure of her government - and, with the resumption of campaigning, she is almost certain to return to the core message that only a Conservative government can provide the 'strong and stable' leadership needed for the 'Brexit' negotiations.
Since the referendum was relatively close - 52 to 48 per cent in favour of leaving the EU - there has been a long rearguard action by the 'Remainers'. But the government has made it clear that it will not fudge the issue and be half-in and half-out of the EU, so it should come as no surprise that the manifesto contains a commitment to take Britain out of the single market and the customs union and thus take back control over immigration which should be reduced to sustainable levels while still admitting the skilled workers which the country's economy needs.
The government is also committed to ensuring restoration of the sovereignty of the UK Parliament and leaving the European Court of Justice so that its own laws will be made in London, Edinburgh, Cardiff and Belfast and interpreted by judges across the UK and not in Luxembourg.
The Prime Minister has said that obtaining the best deal possible for Britain outside the EU is the most important challenge facing her government over the next few years. This was essential for the nation's prosperity, but no deal was better than a bad deal. Leaving the single market would mean the UK could champion free trade worldwide and should be able to secure its own bilateral trade agreements with other countries as well as with the EU itself.
Fighting the coming election on such a strong 'Brexit' platform should stifle any lingering opposition on the subject within the Tory Party. But Mrs May has emphasised the importance of continuing to co-operate with the 27 remaining EU member states in a wide range of areas like counter terrorism and crime, specific European programmes and scientific collaboration as well as many others.
Once the British people had spoken in the referendum, a so-called hard 'Brexit' was almost inevitable. Having declined to participate in the Schengen agreement abolishing internal EU borders or in the eurozone single currency, and as EU leaders press forward inexorably towards ever-closer political union and a federal state, Britain was bound to step aside from the bloc sooner or later.
Overall, the Tory manifesto will reassure 'Leavers' as reinforcing the steps that Mrs May has already taken towards 'Brexit'. Whether the voters as a whole will agree - with numbers of 'Remainers' also perhaps now supporting her - will be revealed on June 8.
• Peter Young is a retired British diplomat living in Nassau. From 1996 to 2000 he was British High Commissioner to The Bahamas. Comments and responses to insight@tribunemedia.net
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