The Tribune

IT IS unsurprising that Bahamians who are curious and well-informed follow closely the ebb and flow of the nation’s domestic politics. In smaller countries like ours, without the checks and balances and varied layers of authority of larger parliamentary democracies, the powers of government ministers tend to be disproportionately greater and their decisions attract much public interest. One recent example is the arbitrary hike in VAT without adequate prior consultation that has dominated public debate, and this has been followed by intense discussion of this week’s mini-reshuffle of the Cabinet.

The corollary of such close interest in local affairs is less curiosity about events elsewhere beyond our shores. So from time to time in this column we draw attention to aspects of international affairs that are causing concern in the wider world.

There is much talk currently about the gradual but perceptible disintegration of the rules-based international order established after the Second World War. This was based on shared values and objectives that were embodied in global institutions like NATO and the United Nations, together with its specialised agencies, as well as European cooperation that progressively developed from a trading bloc and economic community into today’s fully fledged European Union.

The work of these bodies and what they stand for has been instrumental in bringing about – broadly, though with some exceptions – peace, prosperity and security to the West. But they are now facing perhaps the greatest threat to their existence in their seventy-year history; and, in a troubled world that is becoming less secure with the rise of nationalism and populism, there is even talk of parallels with the situation in the 1930s which led ineluctably to the rise of fascism and a global war. This danger seems to have grown surreptitiously – and, ironically, it is being precipitated by the actions of the leaders of the countries concerned that have benefited the most from international order.

The role of the USA as protector of the West remains unchanged in the face of a variety of potential threats; namely, Russian expansionism, China’s militarisation of the South China Sea, the nuclear challenge from Iran and from North Korea despite last month’s summit meeting in Singapore, and the continuing dangers of terrorism and of mass migration. There is, however, growing disquiet about President Trump’s performance on the global stage. Many believe that his unorthodox, unpredictable and confrontational approach is leading America down the wrong path.

Some examples are US withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement, the Paris climate accord and the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, his vociferous condemnation of NAFTA while also taking aim at the WTO and the EU, and his threats to NATO members about their defence spending. All this, together with rows with friends and allies in the G7 and unilateral imposition of tariffs that could lead to a trade war with China and others, has produced widespread uncertainty and concern about international cooperation and the cohesion of Western countries. Some say that, far from advancing the comity of nations, his actions have soured the global political environment, and it will be interesting to see whether his trip to Europe next week to attend a NATO summit in Brussels, to meet President Putin in Helsinki and to visit Britain will make matters better or worse.

Meanwhile, the growing political crisis in the EU as it struggles to find consensus in dealing with mass migration is becoming a serious threat to the stability of Europe as a whole. Divisions within the bloc, which are widening to expose the crumbling façade of unity, could even lead potentially to its collapse.

Despite agreement at a recent EU summit to measures to stop migrants travelling within the Schengen area, including establishing refugee processing centres in different countries, member states like Austria, Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic continue to refuse to accept any migrant quota system.

As a result, the mood in Europe seems to be shifting towards scrapping the Schengen arrangements permanently and restoring borders.

As well as the migrant crisis, the EU is facing the upheaval of Britain’s forthcoming departure from the bloc and a rise of ‘euroscepticism’ which could become a major threat to the entire European project. In particular, it may no longer be practicable to adhere to freedom of movement which was one of the founding principles of European integration contained in the Treaty of Rome in 1957, though the EU is still intent on ever closer political union and a federal superstate that will consign the nation-state to history.

To Bahamians, much of this may appear far removed and only of marginal interest. But, as a small island state, we are inevitably dependent on others for our overall welfare. We rely, in particular, on the US for our security and, in the main part, our prosperity – investment, imports of goods and services and large numbers of tourists as a source of foreign exchange. But we also need to interact with many other countries and be aware of events elsewhere in an interconnected world since these may indirectly affect both our economy and our whole way of life as a sovereign nation.

Whether we like it or not the ripples of events around the world will somehow find their way to our shores.