By RASHAD ROLLE
Tribune Senior Reporter
rrolle@tribunemedia.net
JAMAICA’s former tourism minister projects the tourism industry won’t recover from the COVID-19 crisis until June 2021 and will see 80 percent recovery only by winter of next year.
Damian Crawford’s projections come after the Caribbean Hotel and Tourism Association reported the industry has experienced “near complete suspension”.
Mr Crawford, in a paper shared with The Tribune, noted that World Travel and Tourism data shows the Bahamas ranks ninth in the world for dependence on tourism, fifth in terms of what tourism contributes to employment and sixth in terms of tourism’s export contribution.
For the industry to recover, he says potential tourists must first be convinced their own homes are safe.
“Our first bar on the Gantt chart, will therefore be dependent on the estimated end of new cases emerging in the United States, in particular the NY tri-state, Canada and Britain,” he said. “The mayor of New York City, Bill de Blasio, suggests that the peak is expected at the end of April. “Assuming a bell curve and the emergence of the first confirmed case in NY on March 1, this would indicate that the approximate end date for new cases could be June 30. In addition, it is reasonable to assume that these governments will err on the side of caution and by extension, I do not presume that the State Department will lift the Level 4 travel advisory until at least a month after the last reported case. It is also reasonable to assume that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will likely not give an all-clear until a protracted period of no new cases in all 50 states and Washington DC. This is a reason for great concern for the Caribbean as perceived home safety will likely be attained by the prospective traveler between June and August 1.”
Perception of healthcare in third world countries will be the second factor indicating when tourism will rebound, something he projects will the Caribbean will start benefiting from by November 1.
The third factor will be people’s travel intent, something influenced by finances, availability of flights, promotion of staycations, the season and prices offered, he said.
“Tourism is perceived as a luxury good. In times of uncertainty, luxury spending is often shelved because consumption is generally replaced by savings,” he said. “It is also likely that all routes will not immediately receive critical mass to fly profitably to all destinations. This is a threat to Caribbean nations who depend on air and sea travel for visitors. Many countries will likely promote staycations as a safer, more patriotic alternative to international vacations. Fourthly, if the winter is harsh, it may just serve as a motivator for the bird tourist to fly south for winter, especially if there are great deals. Research conducted after 9/11 showed that 64 percent of individuals who expressed a fear of flying, responded that they were willing to purchase extremely discounted tickets.”
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