The Tribune

Surface observations and Doppler radar data from Puerto Rico indicate that the centre of Laura is currently over the Virgin Islands, eastern Puerto Rico, and the adjacent Caribbean waters.

Overall, the system has become a little better organized since the last advisory, with strong convection forming not far from the centre to the east and southeast and a somewhat better-defined circulation.

However, the central area of light winds is quite large, and there is evidence of several centres rotating around the main storm centre. Earlier data suggested that the maximum winds had decreased to 35 kt, and that is the initial intensity for this advisory.

Laura is moving into an environment of light shear, and combined with the somewhat improved organization it suggests the storm should strengthen. However, the forecast track takes the centre over Hispaniola and then down the length of Cuba, which should at least slow any intensification. This is reflected

in the new intensity forecast which shows Laura slow strengthening Over the Gulf of Mexico's warm water and favourable shear environment into hurricane. A scenario now supported by much of the guidance.

KEY MESSAGES

Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through today. Tropical storm conditions are also expected along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti, and the Turks and Caicos and South-Eastern Bahamas Saturday into Sunday.

Heavy rainfall is likely.

Tropical storm conditions are possible over portions of the Central Bahamas Sunday night, as well as portions of eastern and central Cuba Sunday and Sunday night.

The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since Laura is forecast to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles through Monday. However, Laura could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, Florida and the northern U.S. Gulf Coast by next week.

TODAY

Atlantic facing: NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt.

Seas 2 to 4 ft and 3 ft or less elsewhere.

TONIGHT

Atlantic Facing NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt.

Seas 3 to 5 ft and 3 ft or less elsewhere.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

SUNDAY

Atlantic Facing, E winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

Elsewhere, NE to E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 ft or less, building to 3 to 5 ft.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

MONDAY

E to SE winds 30 to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.