7:30AM SKYGuard | Bahamas Dept of Meteorology Real-Time satellite long range projected track of new tropical cyclone, now named Ian.
Information from the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
Hurricane conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands by early Monday, with tropical storm conditions possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica on Sunday.
Early next week, Ian is forecast to move near or over western Cuba as a strengthening hurricane and then approach the Florida peninsula at or near major hurricane strength, with the potential for significant impacts from storm surge, hurricane-force winds, and heavy rainfall.
Recent satellite fixes indicate that Ian has turned westward (270/12 knots) overnight to the south of a narrow ridge centered near Hispaniola. By early Sunday, Ian is expected to reach the western portion of the ridge, and should turn west-northwestward, and then northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean in 36 to 48 hours. After that time, Ian is forecast to turn north-northwestward and northward around the western portion of the ridge. As mentioned before, the track models are in general agreement with this scenario, however there is a large amount of cross-track spread at 72 hours and beyond. In fact, the east-west spread in ERROR guidance at 4 days is approximately 180 -250nautical miles, with the ECMWF model along the eastern side of the envelope, and GFS ensemble along the western side.