The Tribune

with CHARLIE HARPER

“MANY forms of government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe,” Sir Winston Churchill said. “No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.”

Churchill made this remark in November 1947, with memories doubtless vivid in his mind of both world wars of the first half of the 20th Century. The United States and the United Kingdom led the way to victory in both wars, and democracy was rightly celebrated.

Much is written these days about democracy, especially since it seems especially, and almost unprecedently, frail in the US. The American president makes no secret of his disdain for the messiness and inconvenience of democracy, and is trying in several ways to dismantle the American system of governance even as the country should be celebrating 250 years of independence and comparatively moral leadership in the world.

Surrounded by craven but often mercifully incompetent co-conspirators, Donald Trump continues to test the durability of American democracy. Will his successes be undone by his inability to curb his own excessive ambitions and poor judgment?

On immigration, for example, while Trump has not completed the construction of his signature wall along the US border with Mexico, he has doubtless succeeded in shutting off wide open border left by his predecessor. Trump won’t finish the wall, but few care or remember that central issue from the 2016 presidential election campaign or Trump’s first term.

What people will instead remember is the stunning behaviour of Trump’s immigration and customs enforcement agents in various Democratic-governed American cities, from Chicago to Washington to Los Angeles, Memphis, Portland and most spectacularly, Minneapolis. Since most US cities are governed by Democrats, that list could expand to include dozens of major cities by the end of this current presidential term.

That probably won’t happen, because the appearance and conduct of often poorly-trained and inexperienced ICE agents in Minneapolis and elsewhere has finally alerted the somnolent American people to the widening gulf between their self-image and the image of American democracy, and the crass, corrupt, and violent reality of this second Trump administration.

While for now, Trump seems to be pulling back from Minneapolis and muting his aggressive talk and behaviour, few observers think this will be the end of the president using law enforcement agents, military and national guard soldiers, conservative-dominated regional and national courts, and activist right-wing politicians to move against cities and states that rejected Trump at the ballot box in the past three national American elections. 

The outrages won’t stop. They will certainly continue, cropping up in other places and under other pretexts.

But will they succeed? That’s increasingly in question.

Led by Trump himself, who sees catastrophic defeat staring the Republicans right in the face in November, this current American administration will do whatever it can to not only stave off that coming defeat, but also ensure that even when it happens, enough power will have been concentrated in the executive branch of the government that the great Trump reset of American government can continue.

It’s quite possible that the Democrats will recapture control of the US House of Representatives almost in spite of themselves. Their national political agenda still seems ‘woke’ to many. And while state primary elections in numerous states will be held in the next several months to select nominees of both parties for the upcoming elections, the calls of many Democratic leaders for voters to choose moderate centrists has been largely unheeded.

For success in most elections, a political party must enforce and display strong unified leadership. ‘Electable’ candidates need to be recruited to join a political process that can be devastatingly seamy and profoundly unsettling to families and communities.

Trump’s excesses should have instilled pragmatic unity in his opposition. In some cases, that has happened. In other areas, old tensions and divisions have kept Democrats from joining forces behind candidates who could actually unseat unsavoury or unpopular GOP incumbents.

Those incumbents, so long as they have not incurred Trump’s wrath by daring to defy him on some of his most outlandish initiatives, will probably win again. The upcoming election in the state of Maine is illustrative.

Susan Collins is the incumbent Republican senator, seeking her sixth six-year term this November. She announced her bid for re-election this week. “At a time when Washington seems broken and trust is low, Maine needs experienced, steady leadership and a senator committed to the hard work it takes to get things done,” Collins wrote in an op-ed in her hometown Bangor Daily News on Tuesday.

Collins has drawn harsh criticism from Trump on several occasions, most recently when she bucked him and voted with a handful of other Republicans and all Democrats to curb his war powers. Trump declared that she "should never be elected to office again,” according to Fox News.

"Republicans should be ashamed of the senators that just voted with Democrats in attempting to take away our powers to fight and defend the United States of America," Trump said in a Truth Social post at the time. Collins responded in a skilful, reasonable way that shows the experience of her long career in the Senate. "What I think the president's criticism demonstrates is that I'm independent in the way I approach issues. I look at what the impact is on the state of Maine and what the impact is on the country and Mainers appreciate that," she told Fox News Digital.

"I support President Trump when I think he's right, I don't when I think he's wrong, and that's the approach I've always taken with all of the presidents with whom I've worked,” Collins said. “I’ve never agreed 100% with any of them. So, this president is more outspoken when you disagree with him than previous presidents, but I think that I can fully justify how I have voted."

GOP Senate majority leader John Thune of South Dakota also made sense when Fox News asked him if Trump should weigh in or stay neutral in the Maine contest.

"I would defer to Susan Collins on that,” he said. "I think she knows how to run for office in Maine,” Thune continued. “She's been incredibly successful there. She is a veteran campaigner who knows her state well and knows what works."

The Democrats are already spending a lot of money on campaign attacks aimed at Collins, whose 30-year run in the Senate makes her Maine's longest-serving member of Congress and the longest-serving Republican woman senator in American history.

She has defied Trump on a few occasions, including on the war powers resolution, but has nonetheless supported him on an estimated 94% of votes on his initiatives. Perhaps most notably, she supported the Supreme Court nominations of Brett Kavanagh and Neil Gorsuch during Trump’s first term.

Many vilified Collins for the Kavanagh vote because he was the subject of allegations of inappropriate behaviour toward women. Alaska GOP senator Lisa Murkowski, by contrast, did not support Kavanagh. Kavanagh and Gorsuch joined the conservative majority in overturning Roe v Wade in 2022.

But Kavanagh’s confirmation vote took place almost a decade ago, and Americans often don’t remember singular events that took place one year earlier or less.

While the battle for Collins’ seat is often cited as the most likely to turn out of office a Republican incumbent senator, she will be a tough out. That’s partly because Democrats haven’t yet been able to agree on their nominee, and this will likely be still up in the air by the time they hold their primary election in June.

One of the two main contenders is current Maine governor Janet Mills, a popular incumbent who is, however, five years older than Collins. At a time when voters say they are tired of aging politicians Mills’ age will negate a major criticism of Collins.

The other contender is neophyte politician Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and military veteran running a progressive, anti-establishment campaign backed by Senator Bernie Sanders.

That hardly sounds like a probable Democratic win.