The Tribune

with CHARLIE HARPER

A RECENT security conference in Munich, Germany may offer the best recent illustration of the challenges and possibilities that confront the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an alliance that has underpinned global post-World War II security perhaps more than any other international body, including the United Nations.

As usual, the US and the Trump administration are at the centre of any consideration of the recently-concluded Munich Security Conference. This session was unusual because, despite House speaker Mike Johnson cancelling plans for a big congressional delegation to the conference, several prominent American Democrats attended.

Several Democrats who were in Munich were burnishing foreign policy credentials as a preparation for a possible 2028 presidential run. They included California governor and early nomination frontrunner Gavin Newsom; Senators Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego of Arizona, Chris Murphy of Connecticut; Elissa Slotkin of Michigan; Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York City; former Commerce Secretary and Rhode Island governor Gina Raimondo; and Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer.

While most of the Dems attended quietly, Newsom spoke out.

“European leaders see us as a wrecking ball,” he said in an interview at the conference. “They see us as unreliable, and a lot of them think it’s irreversible. They don’t think we’ll ever come back to our original form.”

Newsom insisted he believes the US relationship with Europe can still be repaired and salvaged. The implication was clearly that he is the man to make that happen.

Ocasio-Cortez, or “AOC,” seems to have inherited the outspoken socialist-leaning perch so long occupied in Democratic politics by Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, now 84 years old. At a panel, someone asked AOC about potential deployment of US troops in the event China launches a military assault to take Taiwan.

This might be the trickiest question in American contemporary foreign policy. But she didn’t handle it very well. CNN reported that her response was “um, you know, I think that this is such a, you know, I think that this is a, um — this is, of course, a, um, very long-standing, um, policy of the United States. And I think what we are hoping for is that we want to make sure that we never get to that point,” she said.

AOC and other potential candidates will get ambushed by questions like this one repeatedly as the US moves gradually toward active presidential campaign season. She’ll doubtless handle it better next time.

US Secretary of State and National Security Adviser (among other current administration roles) Marco Rubio led the American delegation. His words were watched very carefully by not only other attendees, but also observers in government and the press throughout Europe and the US.

Rubio, who clearly wants the Republican nomination for president in 2028, showed why he is constantly walking a political tightrope.

On one hand, like the rest of the current cabinet, he needs to please an audience of one – the president. That means hewing closely to Trump’s line on almost every issue that arises. But Rubio also knows that the president’s popularity on many issues is sagging, and that at least some voters already recognise that Trump’s general boorishness in international relations is making the US look bad.

Rubio will need to be able to portray himself as a converted and loyal Trump servant from now until the 2028 GOP primary elections, but also leave himself enough wiggle room to move strongly toward the political centre and toward much more traditional Republican foreign policy immediately after securing the nomination. Otherwise, unless the Democrats bungle their own nomination process at least as badly as they did in 2024, Rubio or any other GOP nominee is unlikely to win.

Accordingly, Rubio was careful to differentiate his remarks from the incendiary oration delivered at this same conference last year by US Vice President JD Vance. Vance scolded his European audience in blunt terms over their immigration laxity, defence spending hesitancy and general ‘woke’ fecklessness. Vance’s own audience of one – Trump – applauded. But the Europeans were outraged.

In what can only be seen as a measured, differentiated approach, Rubio told his audience that immigration had become a challenge in the US as well. And he said that together, the US and Europe in the postwar era had "a dangerous delusion" that they had entered "the end of history" and that "every nation would now be a liberal democracy, that the ties formed by trade and by commerce alone would now replace nationhood." But the end result was "an unprecedented wave of mass migration that threatens the cohesion of our societies, the continuity of our culture, and the future of our people."

Rubio’s conciliation got a rousing standing ovation from an audience hopeful of some kind of return to the comfort of an American security shield as protection against aggression by Russia. Still, it’s very trendy among pundits and observers to declare that the post-war American security guarantee has now been irrevocably withdrawn.

Maybe. Maybe not.

Trump’s particular foreign policy is certainly different in style and process than virtually all of his post-war predecessors. But two things are important to keep in mind. First, the president remains a transactional pragmatist in his own mind, prepared to adapt to changing circumstances and not be bound by the tenets of traditional foreign policy. It’s not impossible to imagine him changing his mind on many things, including his view of NATO. 

Second, and in any case, he will not remain president beyond 2028. While that is three years in the future, Trump’s ability to act internationally with impunity is likely to be much more circumscribed after this November’s election, if not sooner. Whatever the Supreme Court finally says about Trump’s ability to unilaterally enact tariffs without Congressional approval will matter. Nothing is forever.

Such considerations are not persuading German chancellor Friedrich Merz that a profound schism has not already developed in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Widely viewed as more technocrat than demagogue, Merz spoke unambiguously in Munich.

“A divide has opened up between Europe and the United States,” he said Friday to help open the conference. “The United States’ claim to leadership has been challenged, and possibly lost.”

According to numerous news reports, Merz criticised the "big power politics" that he believes are currently being employed by the US, China and Russia.

"Great power politics turns away from a world in which increasing connectivity translates into the rule of law and peaceful relations between states," said Merz. "Natural resources, technologies and supply chains are becoming bargaining tools in the zero-sum game of the major powers. This is a dangerous game."

Merz said that Europe had learned the lessons from World War II about "big power" dominion and he urged his European colleagues to build a new European economy that will rival these big powers but maintain democratic values.

In his comments, ironically, Merz perhaps inadvertently echoed one of Trump’s main foreign policy themes. The US president constantly rails at Europe for “ripping off” the American taxpayer by devoting far less of their budgets and GDP to defence, instead relying on an American-led defence shield.

"Russia's GDP is currently about 2 trillion euros,” Merz said. “The GDP of the European Union is almost 10 times as high, but still Europe is not 10 times as strong. Our military, political, economic, and technological potential is huge, but we haven't tapped into this potential for a very long time. So the most important thing is to turn the switch in our minds now."

He's right.

Europe hasn’t tapped its military potential since the end of World War II. But the Americans might be careful what they are wishing for. It was precisely the exercise of European military might that led to two 20th century world wars.

Merz acknowledged that “the current geopolitical climate” has forced Germany to implement changes to how it funds its military so that it is able to operate at "full speed." Rubio acknowledged Germany’s increasing commitment to the defence of Ukraine in his remarks.

All of this recalls a remark at the same conference 10 years ago by then-senator John McCain. “I refuse to accept the demise of our world order. I am a proud, unapologetic believer in the West. I believe we must always, always stand up for it. For if we do not, who will?”