with CHARLIE HARPER

As the US and other stock exchanges slumped again early this week, the effort to figure out what’s really in Donald Trump’s head continues. An unusually cogent analysis of Trump’s tariffs came Tuesday from a Georgetown University professor speaking to a select audience on a webcast.

According to professor Marc Busch, the US president can still salvage some real gains from his dramatically unsettling early steps that have turned the world international trade upside down during the last ten weeks.

Busch noted that Trump’s final response to an offer from the European Union over the weekend could trigger big benefits. European officials noted that they had already made the “zero-zero tariff” deal proposal to reduce trade disparities on imports like chemicals, pharmaceuticals, rubber, plastic, machinery and cars.

“We have offered zero-for-zero tariffs for industrial goods as we have successfully done with many other trading partners,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said.

“Because Europe is always ready for a good deal. So we keep it on the table,” she said at a press conference.

“We stand ready to negotiate with the US,” von der Leyen added. “But we are also prepared to respond through countermeasures and defend our interests.”

Trump initially rejected the proposal by the European Union, saying the offer was not enough to reverse his 20 percent duties on imports. But as we know, Trump often reacts this way as a means of extracting concessions from transactional partners. And yesterday, some tariff reconsideration was underway.

“The EU has been very tough over the years,” Trump told reporters when he was asked about the offer. “It was formed to really do damage to the United States in trade.”

Busch is an expert on international trade law and policy. He admitted at the start of his remarks that he has a “natural affinity” for tariffs in general. “They can be a very useful tool in implementing a national trade policy.”

He then tried to get into Trump’s head by identifying various possible motives for an obsessive policy that has aroused criticism across the globe.

“Here’s one plausible theme: Tariffs force foreign direct investment.” When we consider this, we think about how America forced Japanese automakers like Toyota and Honda to bring their manufacturing businesses onto US soil in the 1970s and 1980s. Now, these Japanese titans have invested hundreds of millions of dollars in auto plants in places like Ohio, Indiana and Tennessee.

That’s a lot of manufacturing jobs created in areas with economies that were either depressed or moving in that direction. But that was forty-plus years ago. The US economy has changed and developed since then.

Busch continued with a second possible rationale. “Maybe the objective is instead simply to restore bilateral issues by eliminating the trade balance with these other nations.

“Or thirdly, perhaps Trump’s tariff gambit is simply to raise revenue.” Maybe raising revenue from tariffs would offset perpetuating Trump’s tax breaks for his wealthy friends, as he clearly intends. Who knows now? But we’re likely to find out pretty soon.

The professor then punched a hole in the second rationale. “The thing about the trade imbalances is that 85 percent of American workers now are employed more in the services sector than in the manufactured goods sector.

“If you add in that factor, the so-called ‘trade imbalance’ gets dramatically shifted in the other direction,” Busch said. “Canada is a good example. Yes, the US certainly maintains a goods trade imbalance with Canada. But add in the services trade component, and you have a startlingly different picture.”

Figures to support Busch’s comments come from the World Trade Organization, a 30-year-old world group of more than 150 nations that has often been criticised by Trump for alleged bias against the US. Last month, Trump ordered a pause in American financial support for the WTO. He derides the organization as infringing on US economic sovereignty.

Busch returned to the EU’s ‘zero for zero’ offer. “It’s important to remember here that Trump has a perfect right to complain about various long-standing European non-tariff barriers to trade, especially with regard to imports such as cars from the US.”

Anyone who has driven in Europe and returns to the US can appreciate the gross imbalance in automobile sales and respective market availability.

Summarising, Busch said Trump has positioned the US, and the international economy, at a real inflection point. “We cannot easily unwind the uncertainty we have created,” he said. “There’s been a real loss of international trust.”

Still, there is room for optimism. Curiously, Busch sees the much-vilified World Trade Organization as part of a potential solution. “In 1947, 23 nations met in Havana to form the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs; the GATT basically imposed a cap on tariffs.”

“I believe that if the WTO – which China controversially joined in 2001 – would simply return to a worldwide policy that would cap tariffs, we could all get out of the current mess with economic disaster avoided and Trump able to boast about the various trade deal successes he had achieved. Win-win.”

As this week drifted along, however, it was hard to see a positive outcome. Even as characters as diverse as 53-year-old tech billionaire and Trump adviser Elon Musk and 91-year-old Iowa Senator and GOP leader Chuck Grassley continued to mutter about the tariffs, Trump characteristically seemed to double down on his tariff tactics.

Could a simple cap on tariffs be an answer?

Hockey legends and their politics

While the world’s attention seems riveted on Trump and his economic machinations, two of the world’s most rapacious strongmen remained steadfastly focused on their territorial ambitions.

Curiously, hockey became involved.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was visiting Washington for a meeting with Trump, even as his troops continue an assault on Gaza that seems to be leading to some kind of permanent neutralisation of whatever remains of a Hamas-led threat to Israel’s southern border.

And Russia’s Vladimir Putin is still playing diplomatic footsie with Trump on a ceasefire in the three-plus year Ukraine war. Putin, still appearing to be following pages from Adolph Hitler’s 1930s playbook by talking peace while annexing territory from his neighbours, is intensifying his assaults on Ukraine with increasingly callous and brutal attacks on civilian institutions.

Even Alex Ovechkin has become enmeshed in Putin’s machinations. Long identified as a staunch Russian nationalist, the newly-crowned all-time National Hockey League goal scorer received congratulations from Putin:

“I congratulate you on your outstanding record. You have surpassed legendary masters in the number of goals scored in National Hockey League games,” Putin said Monday.

While Ovechkin has been able to navigate his controversial relationship with Putin, the man whose record he broke has had more trouble due to his own relationship with Trump.

Wayne Gretzky, the Ontario native whose rise to superstardom propelled the Edmonton Oilers to numerous NHL championships before his controversial trade to the Los Angeles Kings in 1988, has proudly embraced his Canadian-ness even while living in the US ever since.

That hadn’t really dimmed his status in Canada until Trump returned to the White House this year and immediately began imposing crippling tariffs on Canada while ranting about possibly annexing the country. Canadian politicians are now running for office on claims they can best deflect Trump.

According to a Canadian Broadcasting Corporation analysis, “pictures of Gretzky celebrating Trump’s election night victory at Mar-a-Lago and attending his inauguration don’t sit well at a time Canadians face an existential crisis in the wake of rising tariffs and the US president’s comments about turning its northern neighbour into a 51st state.

“Many find it unsettling that Gretzky is silent on the topic, even with Trump suggesting Gretzky run for office for the eventuality of becoming the nation’s governor once it joins the US.”

“I always thought he was the greatest,” a long-time Canadian neighbour told CBC about Gretzky. “Now, I wouldn’t say I hate him. Dislike is a better word.

“It disappoints the hell out of me. And I don’t think his father would appreciate it either,” he added. “A lot of people are pissed off with him right now because he went and kissed Trump’s ring.”

The two greatest hockey scorers of all time are both mixed up with two of the world’s most controversial political leaders. With all that’s happening, why would we be surprised?