The Tribune

By MALCOLM STRACHAN

The world woke up to war on Saturday. The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran – and Iran in turn launched retaliation attacks on Qatar, Bahrain, Jordan and Kuwait. Targets hit included Fairmont The Palm Hotel in Dubai, as well as injuries in an incident at Dubai International Airport. Three hundred British troops were with 200 metres of an Iranian missle and drone strike on a US naval base in Bahrain – showing how high the risks of even greater escalation might be.

The explanation for why the strikes happened now was slim at best from US President Donald Trump, saying that there were “imminent threats” without spelling out what those were in detail.

It stands in considerable contrast to another war that has been subject to question over the years – the Iraq war – not least of all from Trump himself.

That was a war with a Bahamian casualty. Norman Darling was born in The Bahamas and serving as a Private First Class in the US Army when he was on patrol with seven others near Mahmudiya, south of Baghdad.

He had joined the Army to give his daughter a better life in Florida, trying to do his best for his family.

The patrol was searching for roadside explosives on April 29, 2004, when a vehicle approached his unit. The driver detonated a bomb, killing himself and the entire patrol.

Darling was awarded the Purple Heart and granted US citizenship posthumously.

It is important to remember the Bahamian connection to Iraq because it is a reminder of the global impact of these matters.

As we digest the beginning of this country, we have already seen how it might start to affect Bahamians today.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has already urged Bahamians not to travel to parts of the Middle East, telling people to avoid all travel to Israel, Palestine and Iran, and avoid non-essential travel to Syria, Iraq and Yemen, and caution for the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain.

Those in the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain have been urged to shelter in place until further notice and avoid non-essential movement.

Given the increasing business connections between the region and The Bahamas, that is a challenge. I know of several people who had travelled to the region recently or had travel plans lined up who are now rethinking.

Questions are also being raised internationally about what this will do to oil prices – meaning you and I might end up paying more for our power bills in the long run.

The comparison with the Iraq war inevitably also invites contrast with how the case for war was laid out.

Back then, it took nearly two years for the administration of then-President George W Bush to build up to the war itself.

In 2001, the administration started to build up those efforts, leading to the Iraq Resolution passed by the US Congress in 2022, with the intent to “disarm Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, to end Saddam Hussein’s support for terrorism, and to free the Iraqi people”.

Through 2003, the US kept building its case, including a famous address by Secretary of State Colin Powell to the Security Council.

Joined by UK Prime Minister Tony Blair in laying out the case, including in a dossier in the UK that came to be known as the Dodgy Dossier, that was praised by Powell.

The concerns centred around how authentic the claims were of the existence of weapons of mass destruction – weapons which were not found in Iraq after the subsequent invasion.

Considerable effort when in to getting a mandate from the UN Security Council to justify the war – only for Secretary General Kofi Annan to describe the war as illegal.

There was a resolution though – the UN adopting a resolution to give Iraq a last chance to disarm or face the consequences.

By comparison, the US attack along with Israel on Iran has not seen such a long and deliberate build-up.

In a recorded speech, Trump accused Iran of an “unending campaign of bloodshed and mass murder targeting the United States”. One of the examples he gave was the 1979 takeover of the US Embassy in Tehran, another was a bombing of a US barracks in Beirut in 1983 that killed 241. Neither seems particularly relevant to any imminent claims of threat.

The more imminent threats he referenced seemed to include Iran having a nuclear programme – even though the White House claimed to have “totally” wiped out that programme when it joined in Israel’s attacks on Iran in June last year. Gone or not? If it was destroyed then, how is it a justification now?

Trump said: “For 47 years, the Iranian regime has chanted ‘Death to America’ and waged an unending campaign of bloodshed.”

He called it “mass terror”, but did not pinpoint why the attack takes place now instead of after 46 years, or 45, or one.

Trump also claimed Iran would soon have a missile capable of hitting the US, but has provided less evidence than in those dossiers of years gone by.

Trump has called for regime change in Iran – and certainly the initial attacks have already led to a change in leadership. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatolah Ali Khamenei, was killed in the attacks.

When it came to the Iraq war, Trump has said a number of times that he opposed the 2003 invasion, although fact checkers have shown over the year he said no such thing before the invasion happened. He has criticised it often though, after the invasion, and fully opposing from 2004.

He said on Fox News at one point: “Look, we should have never been in Iraq. I’ve said that from day one.”

He also called Iraq a “terrible mistake” in an interview with Howard Stern, adding: “And it turns out that all of the reasons for the war were blatantly wrong. All this for nothing!”

It should be noted that Iran is continuing to insist that it should have the right to enrich uranium. There may well be cases for presenting concerns about the nation’s intentions – but the Security Council, and even Congress, have been bypassed in this decision. No building the case these days, just the attack. We will never know if there could have been another way now.

Right now, the world is waiting to see what happens next – Bahamians included. The general advice right now seems to be keep your head down and stay out of it. Not the worst advice, but it all shows the uncertain world we live in right now. Between this and the action in January to capture President Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela, we are in a new age.