The Tribune

WITH both major parties having launched their official campaigns, the upcoming general election appears to be a toss-up.

The Progressive Liberal Party’s (PLP) launch a few weeks ago was a high-energy well-attended event buoying the spirits of the party faithful and leaders, many of whom are convinced that re-election is near. Some in the PLP camp feel near certain that they will upend the one-term curse that has dogged Bahamian politics for decades.

They may be right. Yet are they being overconfident?

Bahamians have a way of surprising governments confident of re-election. Ask Sir Lynden Pindling, Hubert Ingraham, Perry Christie, and Dr. Hubert Minnis, all of whom were confident of re-election before their parties were voted out of office. If Mr. Davis succeeds he will be trumpeted by his party.

Following the Free National Movement’s (FNM) launch last week, the party’s spirits and belief that they can win have been significantly boosted. Even a strong PLP member hoping for victory labelled the FNM’s event “impressive.”

The turnout and energy at the opposition’s launch was as energetic as the government’s. The event showed a united party, with a mostly new slate of candidates. More than just well produced, it favourably highlighted FNM Leader Michael Pintard and a range of policies.

Voters want to envision a party leader as a potential prime minister. After last week, more voters likely saw Mr. Pintard in the proverbial chair.

After critiquing the PLP’s record last Saturday, various candidates pivoted to specific policy and programmatic ideas proposed by the FNM. The range of speakers showcased the party’s new talent and seasoned faces.

Editorials in both dailies described the launch in generally positive terms. The Nassau Guardian, which has been consistently critical and negative about the FNM and Mr. Pintard offered some praise in two editorials.

“Delivering one of the strongest and most focused speeches of his political life, Michael Pintard on Saturday night outlined a forceful case against Philip Davis and the Progressive Liberal Party (PLP), put Free National Movement (FNM) candidates on notice that he would not tolerate corruption in his administration, and pledged that he and his team would govern with integrity and humility,” one editorial noted.

“A lot of the launch was about the show of it all – that is to be expected, but there was substance as well to hold the party too as the campaign proceeds,” The Tribune wrote. “It was a showing stronger in substance rather than just full of catchy slogans.”

Many in the country were pleasantly surprised at the turnout and the dynamism of the event and are now weighing their options after watching a resurging party. This includes many in the FNMs base who feel greater motivation to support the party.

While the FNM may feel more confident of its electoral prospects, it has considerable work to do. Though many Bahamians are struggling with cost-of-living pressures and the inability to afford many things, this will not automatically or necessarily translate into a win for the opposition.

Further, the FNM faces an incumbent PLP with many strengths, that has often made it a political juggernaut. The PLP’s base remains strong, though there are disgruntled supporters who may not vote for the party because of various disappointments and unfulfilled promises.

The party will be flushed with money, including from gaming boss, Sebastian Bastian, and other gambling interests who overwhelmingly favour the PLP.  Incumbent parties have other sources of significant funding from domestic and foreign donors eager to keep favour with the government of the day, especially if they believe it will be re-elected. Though the PLP has the money advantage, the FNM will need to press its donors to be more competitive.

The PLP has always enjoyed a strong ground game, including get out the vote (GOTV) strategies and mobilization on election day. The party will also present its record to the public under the theme, “Building on Progress.” The government is now rushing through legislation to boost its record.

Such last minute’s legislation, however, has usually not convinced undecided voters.

Having served a term as prime minister, Philip Davis will be seen by many as someone who can do the job. Mr. Pintard will need to showcase in the campaign the gravitas and persona necessary to convince more voters that he is prime minister material.

For all its strengths, the PLP faces the burden of incumbency and the one term curse. The party’s failure to deliver on a range of big-ticket items and promises, including in Grand Bahama, will cost it votes.

In an article in this journal on Monday, entitled, “Too soon for PLP to celebrate victory: Only opinion poll that counts is the election,” the writer dissects the nature of polls and their potential unreliability. And polls are just snapshots of a given moment.

While the recent poll ballyhooed by the PLP and referenced by the writer has some resonance, it also has a stark warning for the party, as noted in the column.

“For fewer than two in five people to be giving outright support to the incumbent party is a worrying sign for re-election hopes.

“For the PLP,” the writer continued, “the poll results last week contrast pretty badly with its election results in 2021. The party has gone from 52% support in the election to just 38% in the current polling. That 38% is only just above what the FNM got in the last election when it suffered a landslide defeat.”

Importantly, the low voter turnout at the last election, caused in part about health safety concerns during a COVID wave, contributed to a good number of voters, already exhausted by pandemic restrictions, not voting. Many FNMs stayed at home for myriad reasons. Many more of them are likely to vote this year.

The takeaway is clear. There are pathways to victory for both parties. If the PLP can get out its base and enough other voters, it can win re-election, especially if the FNM’s base does not come out in strong numbers.

Yet, if the FNM gets out its base and enough voters disgruntled with the government, it can win. Both parties should be looking at the undecided numbers with cautious eyes, wondering how they can garner those votes.

The FNM, as the opposition party, has a chance to secure perhaps the greater number of undecided voters.

There is an old saying in politics: “The only voters you can be sure of are those voters who tell you they will vote against you.”

The Golden Isles by-election contained lessons for both major parties, including the importance of voter registration, ground games, and candidate appeal. In the general election, the incumbent government will have less state and other resources to pour into an individual constituency.

With the election likely weeks away, the Bahamian people are about to cut through the political noise, predictions, and guesses. They will render a verdict on Philip Davis and his government, and will decide whether they believe Michael Pintard and the opposition should form the next government.

Both camps realize the election is more a toss-up than many thought as recently as January.