By PETER YOUNG

The past year has not been good for incumbent governments in countries like the US, UK, Japan and Germany. But last week Canada and Australia bucked the trend. In both, the sitting governments triumphed in general elections.

In Canada, existing issues like the cost of living, energy and climate change that were expected to be uppermost on the campaign trail were overtaken by developments surrounding its giant neighbour to the south.

The election was held during economically turbulent times brought on by President Trump’s worldwide imposition of tariffs together with his threats about making Canada the 51st state of the US. To many, threats about territorial acquisition were all too real and needed to be addressed, even if, to others, such action by Trump remained fanciful.

After the Liberal party forced its own leader, the ineffectual and unpopular Justin Trudeau, to resign as prime minister, the party chose a political outsider, Mark Carney, to replace him. The new leader, who had never held elected public office before, was a former governor of the Bank of Canada and of the Bank of England. Despite being a political novice, therefore, he was said to be articulate, experienced and knowledgeable.

Just months ago, the long serving Liberals were well down in the polls and seemed almost on the point of ignominious collapse as the opposition Conservatives were running high and heading for a handsome win. But, soon after stepping into his new role, the political novice Carney has achieved a remarkable victory, albeit a narrow one as a minority government.

His party won 162 seats out of 343 in Canada’s Parliament, enough to form a minority government but falling ten short of a majority. It has secured a miraculous political resurrection that was also a landmark personal success for him by holding public office for the first time.

Carney made it clear that his main focus would to be to stand up to Trump, and this approach evidently resonated strongly with voters. They switched their support in sufficient numbers to secure a narrow victory over his previously highly rated Conservative party opponent who was expected to win in a landslide, but, incidentally, also lost his own parliamentary seat.

On the campaign trail, Carney spoke out resolutely against what his party characterised as the real threats Trump posed, both to Canada’s domestic economy and to its basic sovereignty as an independent nation. For many observers, his electoral success can be primarily attributed to his tough and effective handling of these threats which became the defining issue of the election.

His simple but unequivocal response to Trump’s approach about America owning Canada as its 51st state was to say that Trump was first trying to break Canada because “he wants our land, our resources, our water”, but “that will never, ever happen”. These were firm and strong words, indeed, that caught the electorate’s mood.

It is worth noting that historically the US and Canada have always been close partners enjoying a unique relationship forged by geography – a shared border of some 5,500 miles across land and water, often described as the longest unmanned border in the world - similar values and common interests, strong personal connections, and close trade relations within broad economic links. The two countries are also politically and militarily aligned, sharing intelligence and as fellow members of NATO.

Carney has declared most recently – in the wake of Trump’s extreme actions -- that what he termed the old relationship with the US is over. Now is the time, he says, to start negotiations about a new economic and security relationship with the US. In his first speech since winning the election, he said that he planned to meet the US president in Washington as early as Tuesday this week.

He also announced that King Charles, in his capacity as Canada’s head of state, would deliver the speech from the throne in Parliament on May 27, setting out the government’s legislative agenda. He said that having the monarch there – who acts on the advice of the prime minister as head of government - “underscored the sovereignty of our country”. This will be the first time for nearly 50 years that the monarch has opened the Canadian Parliament. The last time this happened was in 1977 when The Queen celebrated her Silver Jubilee. She also carried out this function in 1956. Normally, of course, it is the role of the Governor-General.

This rare gesture will not be just symbolic but also a strategic move to assert Canada’s sovereignty - as a vast and varied country geographically as well as being rich and well developed with a population of some 40 million - in face of Trump’s continuing threat to absorb it into the US.

Historically, it has been Canada’s own choice as an independent nation to maintain its status as a constitutional monarchy with ties to the Crown – and this, of course, is the defining feature that sets its national identity apart from that of America’s. In Carney’s words, Canada is different from the US and prefers to stay that way.

Poor results for Labour and Tories in UK local elections

Before the local elections in the UK on May 1, commentators were wondering whether the expected results would herald the end of the long-standing traditional dominance of the Conservative and Labour parties in British politics. Now, after sweeping wins by a new party, Reform UK, the general view seems to be that this is increasingly likely to happen. Reform UK claims to be the national political party that offers common sense policies on immigration, the cost of living, energy and issues like sovereignty. But it is also called a right-wing populist party.

A little research confirms that local elections are held at varying times in different areas of the country. But last week there were ballots in 23 different local councils and for a number of mayoralties. There was also a by-election in the constituency of Runcorn and Helsby, an industrial town in the north of England.

The results of these elections are interesting because they can also provide an indication of the current political situation in the UK at a national level.

In summary, Reform won more votes and more seats than any of its opponents by a clear margin. The latest results show it is heading for gains of about 700 seats and of two mayoralties. The party has won overall control of no less than ten councils. It did particularly well in wards which voted for Brexit in the 2016 referendum. The Conservatives lost more than 600 councillors and all 15 of the councils they controlled, and this was said to be among the worst results in the party’s history.

The Liberal Democrats and Greens also enjoyed considerable success, with the former making gains in some councils at the expense of the Conservatives and withstanding in some cases the Reform tide while gaining control of 3 councils.

However, Labour lost nearly 200 council seats as well as the Runcorn by-election mentioned above. This was a seat it had won comfortably at last year’s general election. But Reform won it by just six votes, giving the party its fifth MP at Westminster.

Analysts suggest there has been the customary disillusionment with a sitting government even though Labour has been in power for less than a year and is in the process of implementing its political agenda. But it is still suffering from the public reaction to its imposition of austerity measures such as cutting winter fuel payments for the elderly.

That said, it seems that the results of these elections were worse than either Labour or the Conservatives had anticipated. Reform made big gains across the country while both the major parties endured major losses. But it remains to be seen whether this might be replicated at a general election, not least because, barring unforeseen events, the next one is not due for some four years.

Many believe that Reform’s progress as a political party will depend a good deal on the actions of its leadership. Nigel Farage, its current leader, has said the party now wants to get on with the job of running local councils and delivering for the people on the range of activities for which they are responsible.

He is already a well-known politician in Britain even though he has only been an MP since 2024. He was a founder member of the UK Independence Party in 1993 and campaigned for years for Brexit. He has been a Member of the European Parliament and has been the face of “euroscepticism” in the UK for many years. He played a leading role in the 2016 Brexit referendum and went on to lead the Brexit Party which grew from UKIP and later developed in to Reform UK.

The latest developments suggest a degree of fragmentation in UK politics involving different parties with genuine aspirations to participate in the governance of the country. Reform UK is now riding high, primarily at the local level. But the next general election is too far away to make worthwhile predictions about the party’s emergence as a potentially credible candidate to take on the daunting task of governing the whole country.

Australia returns sitting government

As the other country bucking the trend against incumbent governments, now being called the “incumbency curse” mentioned elsewhere on this page, Australia has just held a general election and has seen its existing governing party win overwhelmingly.

Newspaper headlines have been competing to produce extremes to reflect what has been an amazing turnaround in electoral fortunes for the sitting prime minister, Anthony Albanese, and his centre-left Labor government in achieving an unexpected landslide victory over the opposition conservative Liberal-National coalition. As in Canada, the opposition leader lost his own seat which he had held for many years.

There is insufficient space to go into this properly today. But, reportedly, people are now looking for an explanation for the success of what had become an unpopular governing party, and for Albanese himself as its leader, when both were at record lows at the beginning of the year.

During the campaign, it appears that the main issues were concerns about the cost of living and, in particular, the affordability of healthcare and housing. But, almost inevitably the so-called Trump factor crept in. In an uncertain world made worse, it is said, by the US president’s erratic moves on the global stage, people are seeking stability, consistency and security in their own backyard – so that what one already has and can live with is preferable to the doubt and distrust of the unknown.

Watching Albanese’s victory speech, it seemed to me that he has become more prime ministerial as – in a notably positive and optimistic manner - he stressed the importance of the unity of the nation and the need for people to help one another according to need. It seems that, for many people, Australia’s future is looking better than ever following last week’s election.