The Tribune

by SIMON

EARLY last year, some polling reportedly had the governing PLP winning the next general election handily. There were questions about how divided the Opposition was. FNM Leader Michael Pintard was not getting the traction he needed.

If a week is a lifetime in politics, as the saying goes, fast forward a year plus.  Weeks ahead of the May 12 general election, the major parties are in a competitive race with the numbers having narrowed dramatically.

Some of this was inevitable, as both parties ratified candidates and intensified their election campaigns. Voters pay more attention as an election looms. Still, the incumbent party appeared extremely confident. Many of its supporters argued that there was no chance the Opposition could win.

They may still be right. Yet, they may also be quite wrong. Once the FNM appeared as an alternative government following its campaign launch a relatively few weeks ago, the numbers tightened.

Was the country now looking at a viable alternative they did not discern throughout much of last year?

The FNM’s chances were boosted by a manifesto that appears more comprehensive and far-reaching than the PLP’s. By example, the promise of a national lottery is widely popular. As FNMs started believing they could win and mounted a stronger campaign, they gained momentum.

While the momentum has shifted to the FNM, this is no guarantee of electoral success. Still, the momentum shift was picked up by The Nassau Guardian in an editorial earlier this week.

“The PLP’s chances appear to be fading, as the May 12th vote nears. For years, we have noted that the PLP has not particularly angered the electorate despite some of its more egregious decisions. However, observing the past two weeks, we believe that has changed. People are growing tired of the PLP’s shenanigans and hubris. It appears the party has drunk too deeply of its own Kool-Aid and has grossly misinterpreted what the electorate will stomach.”

Bahamians abhor arrogance and dismissiveness in their political leaders. This has not stopped successive prime ministers, ministers, and politicians--giddy with power--from acting like God Almighty, governing with hubris and contempt for accountability, openness, and fairness.

The editorial continued: “The PLP’s blanket entitlement has become a net negative. They are proving to be every bit of the non-transparent, unrepentant, poor stewards of the people’s trust and treasure many feared it would be. And the mood of the people is shifting against it. We could be reading this wrong, but we believe there may be a reckoning coming for the Davis administration.”

While affordability, the cost-of-living, jobs, and the general state of the economy remain significant issues for the electorate, three other issues are at the forefront of voter’s minds.

The collapse of basic public services, especially healthcare, has Bahamians exercised. The state of Princess Margaret Hospital, the Rand, and clinics is frustrating the public. Most Bahamians have personal, family, or other horror stories about the state of public health, including long waiting hours.

Bahamians are increasingly angry over the massive spending by the government on consultants, travel, the Beaches and Parks Authority, and no-bid contracts. The Davis Administration has had a dismissive, almost contemptuous, attitude to those asking legitimate questions about the lack of openness and the excessive amounts spent.

The administration has also angered the dailies, whose reporting on spending, has the government on the defensive on a daily basis. This is not the kind of headwind a party wants during an election campaign.

Just ask the last FNM government and former Prime Minister Dr. Hubert Minnis what they endured and battled (unsuccessfully) at the last general election.

Some months ago, this columnist asked a candidate running for a seat in southern New Providence what residents were telling him were their major concerns. The candidate recalled that he started talking about the cost-of-living, he was stopped by a senior male voter.

The senior was visibly angry and told the candidate to stop talking. “We won’t have to worry about the price of things if we lose our country,” the senior said.  For him, illegal immigration was the number one issue.

Bahamians can be xenophobic and chauvinistic. There are, however, many Bahamians who are not, yet are alarmed about the influx of foreign nationals to the country. Many worry that we are not assimilating many new arrivals.

Moreover, the fraud reported in the press on passports and voter’s cards, and questions about whether certain groups are being granted citizenship in exchange for votes, is reaching a fever pitch, angering most Bahamians.

Fellow columnist Brent Dean observed in The Guardian last Friday: “Bahamians do not mind a reasonable flow of necessary people into the country. We need immigrants to help grow the economy and bring in skills and resources we do not have. What Bahamians are opposed to is the uncontrolled movement of thousands of people per year from Haiti to The Bahamas. This amounts to a takeover of a small country by a larger neighbour.

“The issue of immigration is shaping up to be a major one during this election campaign. The parties are trading official attacks in the mainstream media. But an even more aggressive battle is taking place unofficially on social media and via messaging apps.”

With less than a month before the national vote, the major parties have cranked up their machinery and are burning up social media. In this election, AI is playing a considerably greater role, which will increase in future contests.  Money is flowing in all sorts of ways for an electorate that is highly transactional.

Yet money alone will not win an election.

Candidates of all parties are on the ground, with the Killarney constituency being heavily watched because of the independent candidacy of Dr. Minnis. How many voters will the Coalition of Independents attract in this and other seats?

With a flood of voter registrations, there will be many more voters than at the last election. Who will this significant increase in registrants benefit more?

The FNM continues to argue that there are significant and worrying irregularities regarding the voter register. Both parties will need aggressive and well-trained poll workers. Funny things happen on election day, especially when a party is desperate.

The PLP has an aggressive advertising and paid media strategy. It has produced a number of successful rallies, attempting to generate energy, enthusiasm, and momentum.

Will this prove successful? Time will tell.

At the final rally before former prime minister Hubert Ingraham’s last election--which he lost--the FNM had a massive crowd. In the event, the crowd was not a bellwether of what was to come. The FNM suffering a terrible loss.

The election cake may already be baked. What the major parties may be battling over--including in their get-out-the-vote plans on election day--is the size of the margins in each constituency and in the final seat count.

Yes, while there are silly things in an election season, including silliness by politicians, journalists, and voters, the country is engaging in a democratic exercise and ritual that will have serious consequences for us all.