The Tribune

IN AN in-depth analysis in The Bulwark on why Kamala Harris lost her bid for the US presidency in 2024, the campaign’s Deputy Campaign Manager, Rob Flaherty, offered powerful insights applicable to the Free National Movement’s (FNM) failure to win the recent general election.

“My biggest lesson from the 2024 election is that tactics don’t add up to a brand, and a brand is the most important thing in politics today. Without a brand that people genuinely feel is connected to your candidate’s deeply held beliefs, your tactics will add up to nothing. You’ll reach people but won’t close the deal.”

There are a complex of internal and external reasons why the FNM lost. Those who believe that it was mostly due to public relations and related tactics are missing a considerably bigger picture and socio-political landscape and context.

Tactics and PR can always be improved. Still, neither are the main reasons for the FNM’s failures, which will continue to drag the party down if it fails to meaningfully analyse its problems and reform itself.

While there is no single cause for the FNM’s loss, it must be honest in identifying the major reasons for its loss.

More than after-action reports from consultants are needed to revitalize the FNM. The party needs more than a postmortem on this campaign. It needs a new vision of itself and a bold plan to make it fit for purpose.

It’s wonderful to talk about a future Bahamas in policy terms. What, however, does a future FNM look and feel like? Another word for brand is identity. 

Bahamians have some sense of the identity of the PLP, which bills itself as the party of the grassroots. Ask Bahamians what the FNM brand is and you may get blank steers. Even many FNMs cannot articulate what the party’s brand is today.

FNMs in their mid-50s or older have a certain view of the party and the Ingraham era. Times and the electorate have changed. 

Younger voters do not remember the Ingraham years. They have different sensibilities and are removed from politics. They do not watch the evening newscasts. They do not read newspapers.

While newspapers still help set the political agenda, the days of talking to editors at the journals, including The Punch, to drive political communications are over. One must now be a master of the digital domain, especially given the vast possibilities of AI.

Political parties must now invest in influencers, creatives, thinkers, writers, and others who can provide appealing and provocative content. The PLP are masters at emotional appeal, which the FNM often makes rational appeals that fail to grasp voters emotionally.

The party must address glaring failures, such as the need for a digital infrastructure and grassroots outreach that must be expanded now, not months before a general election.

The party must also address leadership at every level, which will be discussed in the months ahead.

Former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham famously launched an era of reform and modernization of The Bahamas that transformed the country. Today, the FNM needs a sustained period of reform and modernization. If the party does not engage in such fundamental change it will continue to diminish and atrophy.

The FNM’s task is to do for the party what Tony Blair, Gordon Brown, and advisors like Alistair Campbell, and the now disgraced Lord Peter Mandelsohn, did for the Labour Party in the 1980s and 90s. This is the scale of the change the FNM requires.

This year’s election was the first time in 40 years that the FNM lost back-to-back elections. Since 2017, the party has lost half of those who voted for them in that election. The party’s seat total remains in single digits after two consecutive elections.

Some say that the party is not in crisis. Many others, including this columnist, vigorously disagree. The FNM is showing the classic signs of being in the proverbial political wilderness.

It has suffered a terrible electoral defeat, including losing seats in New Providence ranging from Yamacraw in the east to St. James in the West. That it failed to win any of this seat-rich belt of constituencies is more than alarming. It was a disaster.

The party failed to adequately reach and motivate the “persuadable middle”, despite disgruntlement with the PLP’s many failures. Another sign of being in the wilderness is internal division, more of which in subsequent columns. 

For now, such division will only worsen if the party fails in substance and tone to heal various wounds. It must also enliven the party with new members, talent, donors, and critically, new voters and those who have left the party.

A loss of confidence afflicts those in the wilderness, who come to lack clarity, purpose, and a sense of identity. The wilderness is uncomfortable, often depressing, with feelings sometimes of hopelessness, lassitude, and indifference. 

Still, the FNM does not have the luxury of self-absorption or self-pity. In the Bible, the wilderness is a time of testing and preparation. “Far from just a physical wasteland, it serves as a powerful spiritual metaphor, a place [for] profound transformation.”

Both major parties lost some voters. Two thirds of registered voters are not with the PLP. But neither did more than two thirds vote for the FNM. The good news for the party is that there is room for tremendous growth.

Drugged by hubris, self-indulgence, and various corrupt and antidemocratic practices, the PLP is unlikely to change. Given the number of seats it has, the party has no incentive to change. 

The party may be convinced that it will win in 2031 with the same formula used to win this year: a base election, flooding constituencies with state and gaming boss money, giving out government largesse such as vouchers, Crown Land and other goodies, and other elements of its playbook.

Is the PLP beatable? Of course. Faced by the entrenched power of the white oligarchic United Bahamian Party, with all of its personal and state wealth, control of government and the media, and the ability to victimize, the PLP of that day faced immense odds.

The PLP unseated the UBP. It became the liberationist party because of the quality of its leadership and intense grassroots activism. Critically, the PLP had a powerful message and identity. 

They created a compelling brand, the power and reach of which remains in the hearts and spirits of many Bahamians. 

The party launched Bahamian Times, a vital instrument of its political strategy, communicating the party’s brand and message to thousands. Produced weekly, it captured the attention and imagination of voters.

We are in a different era. Still, many of the perennial realities of political life remain. Will the FNM modernize to respond to today’s political landscape?

The party has tremendous opportunities for revitalization. However, it must be willing to boldly reimagine itself, possibly attracting more support than it may currently imagine. 

If it fails, however, to grasp the moment, it is possible that it will lose more votes next time, and within 10 years may possibly be near third party status.