The Tribune

Bahamian airport operators should assess their infrastructure against future climate conditions rather than historical weather patterns, a senior meteorologist has urged, warning that rising climate risks could expose critical weaknesses in airport operations.

Jeffrey Simmons, vice-president and director of meteorology at The Bahamas Aviation, Climate and Severe Weather Network (BACSWN), said airport operators must identify the precise thresholds at which extreme weather could compromise their infrastructure and operational efficiency, rather than relying on historical meteorological averages to guide resilience planning.

Mr Simmons made the comments after participating in the International Civil Aviation Organisation's (ICAO) Green Airports Seminar 2026, held in Cairo, Egypt, under the theme “From Ambition to Implementation”.

He said one of the key issues discussed was the need for meteorological services to move beyond general weather forecasts and provide airport operators with more specific information about how conditions will affect their operations.

“It is no longer good enough just to say what the weather will be. We must also be able to say what the weather will do,” he said.

The two-day seminar brought together nearly 300 international aviation leaders to discuss translating global environmental goals into practical action, with a particular focus on airport decarbonisation and resilience against accelerating climate risks.

Mr Simmons served on a panel examining “Understanding Climate Risks to Airport Operations and Infrastructure”, where he contributed from the perspective of Small Island Developing States (SIDS), including the Bahamas, which depend heavily on aviation for economic activity, international connectivity and disaster response.

Mr Simmons said a generic forecast warning of thunderstorms and showers was insufficient, with airport operators needing to know whether conditions could produce microbursts, low-level wind shear, sudden crosswind shifts or flooding that could disrupt runway operations and aircraft movements.

He said the need for impact-based forecasting was a significant discussion point during the seminar, with an ICAO representative on the panel suggesting the approach should be integrated into the organisation's meteorological manuals.

Mr Simmons also highlighted the importance of more precise forecasting of tropical cyclone activity, including when strong winds are expected to begin and end, the timing and duration of peak winds, and anticipated rainfall and flooding.

Such information would help airport operators make decisions about protecting infrastructure, evacuating facilities and determining when airports could safely resume operations following a storm.

He said post-cyclone forecasts were also critical, particularly in identifying lingering convective bands that could affect the safe reopening of airports and the arrival of international humanitarian aid flights.

Mr Simmons identified several gaps in meteorological services that could limit airports' ability to make informed operational decisions, including the translation of weather data into aviation-specific impacts, observation blind spots and a lack of Doppler weather radar.

He also pointed to the need for low-level wind shear alert systems at airports to provide warnings of potentially dangerous wind conditions.

The maintenance of critical meteorological instruments was another challenge raised during the discussions.

Mr Simmons said airport operators should also reconsider how they approach climate risk assessments, moving away from historical averages and instead identifying the specific conditions under which infrastructure could become vulnerable.

He said operators should determine, for instance, the water levels at which electrical substations could flood, the temperatures at which aircraft could face take-off limitations and the wind speeds at which air traffic control towers may need to be evacuated.

Airport operators should then work with meteorological and climate services to determine how frequently those operational thresholds could be reached under future climate scenarios, he said.

“By shifting your mindset from historical averages to future operational thresholds, you ensure that your capital investments actually buy resilience, rather than just reinforcing an airport built for a climate that no longer exists,” said Mr Simmons.

He said meteorological services could also improve support for airport operators by introducing a common operating picture that integrates weather information into existing airport operational dashboards.

This would allow airport management, airlines, ground handlers and air traffic control to access the same information on storm trajectories and timelines, helping to improve coordination and decision-making as extreme weather becomes more challenging.