The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

MORE than half of Grand Bahama’s businesses are cautiously optimistic over the island’s economic outlook for the next 12 months with almost two-thirds both expecting to grow but citing cost of doing business concerns.

The Grand Bahama Chamber of Commerce, unveiling the findings of its 2026 Business Climate and Economic Outlook survey, which received responses from 114 employers, said the findings showed the private sector is more confident than current conditions suggest but much depends on improving the climate for commerce - especially the ease and cost of doing business - plus bringing key reforms and major investment projects to fruition.

The responses produced a somewhat mixed picture, as Grand Bahama’s business community split almost evenly into around one-third who were positive on the current trading climate, one-third who were “neutral” and the final third who were negative. The actual splits were 35.7 percent who described themselves as “very positive” or “somewhat positive”; 33.93 percent who were “neutral”; and 30.4 percent either “somewhat” or “very” pessimistic.

“The result is mixed rather than uniformly pessimistic,” the GB Chamber said. “Current sentiment remains weaker than businesses’ own growth expectations. The business community is not uniformly negative, but confidence will depend on visible progress in the operating environment.”

Ten larger companies, featuring more than 50 employees, were more optimistic than their smaller counterparts , with 70 percent describing themselves as positive about Grand Bahama’s current business climate compared to just 32.4 percent of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The SME findings mirrored those of the overall survey, with one-third “neutral (35.3 percent and the remaining 32.4 percent “negative”.

And, in a further signal that Grand Bahama’s private sector sees emerging opportunities, more than half - some 52.21 percent of respondents - voiced confidence in the island’s near-term economic prospects over the next 12 months compared with 31 percent who were either “somewhat” or “very” concerned and 16.81 percent who described themselves as “neutral”.

Again, the larger employers were more optimistic, with 90 percent - or nine out of the ten - who have more than 50 staff pronouncing themselves “confident” and none expressing concern. While the number of confident SMEs was less at 48.5 percent, they nevertheless exceeded the 34 percent who are “concerned” about the economic outlook over the next 12 months.

“Confidence remains stronger than the rating of current conditions. This points to cautious optimism rather than a settled economic recovery. Optimism appears conditional on anticipated projects and reforms translating into visible delivery,” the GB Chamber said of the findings.

And, suggesting there is real hope that the island’s economy is poised for a rebound, some 70 businesses - 62.5 percent or close to two-thirds of respondents - said they expect to grow and expand over the next year. Most of the remainder, 35 businesses or 31.25 percent, predicted that they will experience no change while only seven companies - just 6.25 percent - said they believe their operations will shrink and contract.

All those companies fearing a contraction are SMEs, but 58.8 percent forecast they will expand in the upcoming 12 months with another 34.3 percent predicting “stability” - meaning more than nine out of ten, or 93.1 percent, are optimistic they will not go into reverse. All ten large companies voiced confidence they will grow.

“Businesses appear prepared to pursue opportunity despite present constraints,” the GB Chamber said, adding that it will look to pursue “removing constraints from businesses that are already inclined to grow”. Such “constraints” were highlighted by the fact that more than half of companies cited the ease of doing business in Grand Bahama as “somewhat” or “very” difficult - matching the number voicing confidence over the outlook for the next year.

Some 55.3 percent of responding businesses cited ease of doing business challenges, with just 22.81 percent describing themselves as “neutral” and almost 22 percent rating the operating environment as “very” or “somewhat” easy. Both SMEs and large employers, 54.8 percent and 60 percent, respectively, described the business climate as difficult.

“This is a system-wide issue,” the GB Chamber said in its analysis. “The result reinforces regulatory efficiency as a core economic issue. Ease of doing business should be treated as an ecosystem agenda spanning approvals, utilities, banking, Customs and information flows.”

Breaking down the challenges, close to two-thirds or 62.83 percent of Grand Bahama business survey respondents identified the “cost of doing business” as the greatest impediment, with 48.67 percent and 45.13 percent fingering “economic conditions” and “Bahamas government policies, processes, requirements and/or approvals”. And more than one-third, 34.51 percent, mentioned similar challenges with the Grand Bahama Port Authority (GBPA).

Utilities costs were cited as an issue by 38.9 percent of businesses, with access to skilled labour and business banking named as barriers by 33.63 percent and 35.4 percent of companies, respectively. “SMEs emphasised financing and banking (38.8 percent each), Government processes (47.6 percent) and market demand (37.9 percent),” the GB Chamber said.

“Large enterprises emphasised skilled labour and utilities (60 percent each), followed by housing (20 percent). Utilities, market demand, finance, banking, GBPA processes and skilled labour form a second tier. No single intervention will resolve the operating challenge.”

Ralph Hepburn, the GB Chamber’s president, in a note prepared for both the Government and the GBPA on the findings of a survey conducted between June 15 and August 4 this year, said: “The central message is constructive but clear. Grand Bahama businesses see opportunity, and 62.5% expect to grow during the next 12 months.

“That optimism remains conditional on visible execution, clearer communication, a more enabling operating environment and practical opportunities for local businesses to participate in major developments.

“When respondents were asked to select Grand Bahama’s priorities for the next five years, five issues ranked highest: Airport redevelopment; regulatory reform and improvements to the ease of doing business; Grand Lucayan redevelopment; workforce development and skills training; and attracting foreign direct investment.”

Redevelopment of Grand Bahama International Airport was identified as “the dominant five-year priority” after being cited by 82.5 percent of respondents to the GB Chamber’s survey. “Separately, 57.5 percent identified accessibility to Grand Bahama, including travel availability and cost, as a development that would positively affect business,” it added.

Regulatory reform and the ease of doing business were identified as an issue by 55.3 percent of companies. “The same share rate doing business in Grand Bahama as somewhat or very difficult,” the GB Chamber added. “Increased hotel, resort and vacation rental capacity was selected by 49.6 percent as a development that would positively affect business.

“Workforce skills and development were also selected by 46 percent as a development that would positively affect business, while 33.6 percent identified access to skilled labour as a current barrier. Attracting foreign investment was also selected by 43.4% percent as a development that would positively affect business.”

The GB Chamber added that “power reliability and energy costs were selected by 46.9 percent as a development that would positively affect business. Utility costs were identified by 38.9 percent as a current barrier”.

Mr Hepburn, in his briefing note, said: “The Chamber respectfully asks that these findings inform practical planning, more predictable communication and measurable follow through. Businesses need earlier visibility into development and procurement opportunities, clearer processes and regular progress reporting so they can prepare, invest and participate.

“The Chamber shares the survey in the spirit of partnership, and with a strong belief in Grand Bahama’s potential. We remain ready to convene businesses, provide practical feedback and work with both Government and the Grand Bahama Port Authority to support a more enabling and competitive business environment.”