The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

TRIBUNE Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

THE ABSENCE of “super volatile” signals bodes well for Bahamian real estate’s 2027 outlook, it was argued yesterday, even though homes sales “slowed in most areas” during the three months to end-September.

Laura Morley, a residential sales and leasing agent with Morley Realty, and the firm’s marketing head, told Tribune Business that data provided by the Bahamas Real Estate Association’s (BREA) Multiple Listing System (MLS) showed that the sector had “remained pretty stable” through 2026 to-date even though there were signs buyer activity “softened” during the third quarter.

Both contracted and completed home sales on New Providence dropped by 6.3 percent and 16.4 percent, respectively during the three months to end-September when compared to the second quarter. But, while the number of contracts for pipeline home sales as also down 11 percent year-over-year, deals that closed during the third quarter rose by 16.7 percent in the Bahamian capital.

Ms Morley told this newspaper the data showed that the volume of new listings, and real estate properties coming on to the market, were “a bit lower” than previously with the knock-on effect that contracted land and home sales “naturally slowed” in a number of the major islands - New Providence, Grand Bahama, Abaco, Eleuthera and Exuma.

However, with home sellers on average still achieving more than 90 percent of their listing or asking sum, she added that a key takeaway is properties that are correctly priced will still find a deal relatively quickly. The time New Providence homes stayed on the market before being snapped up fell by 45.6 percent quarter-over-quarter during the period to end-September to hit 87 days.

“The general consensus is buyer activity slowed between the second quarter and third quarter on all five islands, but the closing sales on New Providence and Grand Bahama were stronger than last year,” Ms Morley said of the MLS data.

“It’s not to say the market slowed, but inventories were a bit lower so getting properties into contract naturally slowed a bit compared to last year. Going into the fourth quarter, it’s important to look at sources of new inventory we’re getting, what new properties are going under contract, and pricing.

“The list-to-sell ratio, of what sellers are receiving from buyers, is largely within 10 percent. It’s kind of exciting to see we’ve come down from the influx after COVID. Price are starting to settle, and buyers and sellers are negotiating close to list price, while bearing in mind sellers need to price their properties accordingly.”

New home listings on New Providence fell by 10.9 percent during the three months to end-September 2026, although they were flat year-over-year. New listings of available land were down by 24.2 percent and 9.1 percent, respectively, compared to the 2025 third quarter and this year’s second quarter.

A drop-off in new listings often signals a reduction in the supply of available properties, and thus a tightening of or increase in real estate prices, and New Providence sellers achieved an average of 93.6 percent of their asking price during the 2026 third quarter. Sellers on Eleuthera, Exuma and Grand Bahama also beat the 90 percent list-to-sale ratio; only Abaco was below at 87.6 percent.

“Our market remained pretty stable,” Ms Morley added of 2026’s first nine months. “Prices have not increased or decreased significantly, home closings remained pretty stable. We have a pretty stable market in Nassau, which is in a good spot. Our land sales have increased; they haven’t decreased.”

As for Bahamian real estate’s outlook heading into 2027, she said: “I think it’s important to look at the early quarters of this year. The second quarter was definitely our strongest quarter in 2026, and things have kind of slowed down. As we head into 2027, naturally with the holidays things tend to slow down but it doesn’t mean people will stop looking.

“I think the market will head in a similar direction where it will start to slow down, but that is not any any indication it is trending down. But the last two months of the year, beginning of 2027, will naturally be a bit slower as families recover from the holiday season.

“We’re kind of hoping to see a little more inventory. The buyer activity is still there, but the fact we have not seen so many contracted sales shows the inventory is a little lower. The land market has been bit a bit more volatile. We have seen increases in the price of land, and an increase in contracts and sales on this island. I would say land is doing relatively well,” Ms Morley added.

“The way I see it, the fact we are not seeing anything super volatile in the first three quarters, is reassuring for next year. I think, at least in the New Providence market, things have stayed relatively the same between 2025 and 2026, so I can only imagine that in 2027 things will remain the same in New Providence. Given the world we live in, it’s really important things are stable here.”

Morley Realty, describing the Bahamian real estate market’s performance as “mixed” in its analysis of MLS third quarter data, said some of the five major islands showed “stronger activity” while others were weaker compared to the three months to end-June 2026.

“The home market stayed fairly active, but buyer activity softened in several areas. The land market continued to be more unpredictable, with larger swings in sales activity and pricing,” it said. “Overall, the 2026 third quarter shows a market that remains active but varies significantly from island to island.

“Home sales slowed from the second quarter in most areas, while pricing moved in different directions depending on what was selling. Land remained more volatile, and going into the fourth quarter, realistic pricing and the right level of inventory will remain important as buyers stay selective.”

Turning to specific details, Morley Realty added: “New home listings were higher than last year in Abaco, Eleuthera, Exuma and Grand Bahama, while New Providence was unchanged. Compared to the second quartr, however, listings fell in Abaco, Exuma and New Providence.

“Land listings were generally weaker, with most islands recording fewer new listings than last year. Exuma was the main exception, where land listings remained higher year-over-year despite falling from the previous quarter.

“Buyer activity in the home market slowed during the third quarter. Contracted sales fell from the second quarter across all five islands, with some of the largest declines in Abaco and Eleuthera. Compared to last year, Abaco was the main market to show stronger contracted sales, while Exuma was unchanged,” the real estate firm said.

“Completed sales were more mixed, with Grand Bahama and New Providence recording year-over-year increases, while Abaco and Eleuthera saw declines. Exuma completed sales were unchanged from last year but increased sharply from the second quarter.”

As for prices and sales pace, Morley Realty said: “Home prices varied widely between the islands. Abaco prices remained above last year but fell from the second quarter. Exuma saw a sharp increase in average and median home prices, although this may have been influenced by a smaller number of high-value sales.

“Eleuthera’s average price remained above last year but dropped significantly from the secomd quarter, while its median also declined. Grand Bahama saw lower average and median prices, while New Providence was more stable, with the average increasing but the median falling slightly.

“Land prices were also mixed. New Providence showed the strongest price growth, while Eleuthera also recorded higher prices. Abaco, Exuma, and Grand Bahama all saw lower land prices compared to last year, showing how much pricing can move when fewer sales take place.

“Homes generally sold faster than in the second quarter in Eleuthera, Exuma, Grand Bahama and New Providence, while Abaco was mostly unchanged. Most home sales still closed above 90 percent of list price, with Abaco lower at 87.8 percent. Land results varied more, with New Providence reaching 100 percent and Grand Bahama at 81.4 percent.”

And, when it came to land sales, Morley Realty said: “Land sales showed stronger results in a few markets. Eleuthera saw increases in both contracted and completed sales compared to last year and the second quarter, while Grand Bahama recorded a strong increase in contracted sales.

“Exuma also saw better contracted activity, although completed sales remained below last year. New Providence land sales were still higher than a year ago but slowed from the second quarter. Abaco was weaker across the board, with fewer new listings, contracted sales and completed sales.”