The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The Government’s political opponents yesterday accused it of “manipulating” the latest unemployment data to its advantage, with almost half the 20,000 jobs it claims to have created coming from Abaco’s late inclusion in the Labour Force survey.

Shane Gibson, minister of labour and National Insurance, in responding to the increased 14.8 per cent unemployment rate touted the fact that the employed workforce had expanded by almost 20,000 jobs since May 2012.

That was when the current Christie administration took office, and Mr Gibson said in a statement: “Certainly, in an environment of a subdued and protracted global economic recovery, the Government is pleased with the addition of over 20,000 new jobs and Bahamians to the employment lines since May 2012, but the truth is one Bahamian unemployed is too many.”

All would agree with the latter sentiment, and the numbers published by the Department of Statistics appear to reveal that the Bahamas’ total employed labour force has indeed expanded by just over 20,000 persons or 12.6 per cent since the Christie administration took office in May 2012, growing from 160,650 to 180,820.

But Mr Gibson and the Government get their 20,000 figure by including all of Abaco’s 9,630 employed workers in their calculation.

Abaco was only included in the Labour Force Survey from May 2014, and did not feature in all of 2012 and 2013.

This means that the island’s workforce should not be included in the comparisons between May 2012 and November 2015, with the implication that just 10,000 jobs appear to have been added to the workforce in that time.

With only data on New Providence and Grand Bahama available on a like-for-like basis, the Department of Statistics figures show that New Providence’s employed labour force has increased by around 6,000 since the Christie administration took office, with Grand Bahama seeing a rise of around 4,500.

K P Turnquest, the FNM’s deputy leader, told Tribune Business that it was “intellectually dishonest” of the Government to make the 20,000 jobs claim, based on what the Department of Statistics numbers really show.

“That’s very superficial and disingenuous of them,” Mr Turnquest told Tribune Business. “And anecdotally, with the situation at Baha Mar, we are wondering where these 20,000 jobs are because, looking around, we don’t see that kind of activity.”

Branville McCartney, the Democratic National Alliance’s (DNA) leader, also told Tribune Business: “Again, it’s manipulation to the benefit of the Government.

“How can they speak about job creation when the percentage of people unemployed has gone up?”

Still, the central conclusion from the Labour Force Survey is that the Bahamian economy is not growing fast enough to create sufficient jobs for existing workers, let alone the 3,000-5,000 school leavers who join the workforce every summer.

This is born out by the fact that the unemployment figures have remained stubbornly in the ‘double digits’, moving between 27,000 and 31,500, depending on whether it is May or November, as the Labour Force survey catches new school leavers in the latter month.

Mr Turnquest agreed that this was “the underlying story” from the unemployment data, and said: ‘I think it’s a very big concern, because competition in our base businesses is getting stiffer and we still seem to have trouble with these mega projects getting off the ground.”

He added that the Bahamas Agriculture and Marine Science Institute (BAMSI) was “floundering” when compared to Government claims that it would lead agriculture’s revitalisation, while the $6.5 billion national debt and potential further credit rating downgrades would impact the Bahamas’ ability to borrow.

“Regardless of what the numbers say, it remains that the ordinary Bahamian is catching hell,” Mr Turnquest told Tribune Business. “All the taxes in the last two years have not helped, and the benefits are not trickling down to them.”

Mr Gibson also acknowledged that the Bahamian economy was not growing fast enough to provide the necessary jobs, adding in his statement: “The demands of an expanding labour force continue to drive the Government’s intensified efforts to strengthen the major pillars of the economy, diversify the economy and invest more in human capital.

“The expansion of the labour force will no doubt continue at a rate of 4,000 to 5,000 persons annually, which demands acceleration in the rate of jobs creation.

“The Government is keenly aware of this dynamic and is satisfied that the pending projects, and those in various stages of development and completion, will significantly reduce the level of unemployment over the next year.”