The Tribune

With CHARLIE HARPER

World events probably aren’t unfolding as American President Joe Biden hoped when he took office, but after eight years as Vice President and several more as chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he can’t be too surprised at the recent turn of events.

Biden always knew the world wasn’t going to pause while the US settles in after a presidential transition. But he surely hoped for fewer distractions abroad as he continues to pursue his very ambitious public health and economic recovery agenda at home.

Biden’s initial avowed foreign policy plan was to focus on China, the principal American rival on the world stage. While Beijing’s tightening grip on Hong Kong and reports of increased refugee flow from that city and mainland China to Taiwan have fuelled some added US-China tension, several more traditional flash points overseas have flared at the State Department and National Security Council recently.

An unfortunate decision by a half dozen Israeli police to enter one of Islam’s most holy sites during Ramadan and disable loud speakers during evening prayers has ignited the worst fighting in years between Israel and its Palestinian neighbours and subjects.

Seizing world headlines once again, Middle East violence has claimed at least 145 people in Gaza and erupted in a wave of mob attacks in mixed Arab-Jewish cities in Israel. Downtrodden Gaza has turned into a humanitarian crisis as public health conditions continue to deteriorate.

There have been military assaults and casualties along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. While a wider full-scale war still seems unlikely, America and its President have been once again thrust into the centre of things.

Biden reportedly spent much of last weekend on the phone with Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu and various Palestinian leaders, trying as have many of his predecessors to broker a ceasefire that would lead to a durable peace in the region. Few expect quick success.

Biden also faces fissures within his own party about the appropriate US response to recent Israeli actions.

Meanwhile, in Moscow, the US Embassy was forced last week to issue the following notice: “Reduction of Consular Services – Effective May 12, US Embassy Moscow will reduce consular services offered to include only emergency US citizen services and a very limited number of emergency immigrant visas. These service reductions are necessary due to the Russian government’s April 23 notification of its intention to prohibit US Mission Russia from employing foreign nationals in any capacity. Non-immigrant visa processing for non-diplomatic travel will cease.”

Imagine the American Embassy on Queen Street issuing such a statement. How would South Florida merchants survive without their Bahamian customers?

In imposing these tough new rules, Russian President Putin is deliberately ratcheting up tensions with Washington. He knows withdrawing Russian nationals from embassy service will limit and largely hobble the embassy staff as it tries to fulfil its responsibilities. The former KGB boss seems quite comfortable in returning to his familiar adversarial role toward the Americans.

And Washington knows all too well how this narrative unfolds. Thirty five years ago, under President Ronald Reagan, a group of conservatives serving on an intelligence advisory board succeeded in forcing the State Department to fire all its locally-engaged staff as security risks in the Soviet Union and other Eastern European countries.

Their replacements were mostly Americans with language ability, but the unique perspective of employees who are from the local community was lost. It took years for the various embassies to regain their footing.

American Democratic Presidents are often elected in the expectation they will focus on domestic ills, and Biden is certainly no exception. He must be gnashing his teeth and impatiently pacing in the Oval Office as his time and attention are increasingly forced toward foreign issues.

But he knows it all goes with the job.

Playing the game

Oddities in the schedule of American political elections can sometimes elevate an otherwise relatively obscure state to temporary national prominence.

The best examples of this are the quadrennial New Hampshire “first in the nation” presidential primary election and the outdated political party caucuses in Iowa that help lead off American presidential campaigns.

Virginia and New Jersey share a similar if less well-known distinction. In the year following American presidential elections, these two states elect their governors to four-year terms. Since the two states elect their governors in an odd-numbered year when there are no regularly scheduled congressional elections, these two states are closely watched. Look for this to continue this November.

In heavily Democratic New Jersey, incumbent Democrat Phil Murphy is running for re-election and should be favoured despite some glitches in his state’s COVID vaccine rollout.

In currently majority Democratic Virginia, on the other hand, a significant contest is developing. Virginia’s state constitution prohibits governors from running to succeed themselves. But after a term out of office, they can get back in the game.

That’s what Terry McAuliffe has done. Once best known as a prolific fundraiser for and confidante to both Bill and Hillary Clinton, McAuliffe was a very popular governor from 2013-17 and is favoured to win the Democratic nomination next month.

The Republican nominee is more intriguing. Once-red Virginia has not elected a statewide Republican candidate in 12 years. While GOP gerrymandering in the state capitol has maintained several Republican House seats for over a decade, far-right zealots have seized control of the party nominating process. The result has been a succession of debilitating statewide defeats.

A wealthy venture capitalist and political novice named Glenn Youngkin has just won the GOP nomination to oppose McAuliffe this fall. His path to the nomination is interesting because he is trying to walk the same political tightrope Republican candidates will face in coming years in every competitive state in the country.

On the one hand, a potential candidate must demonstrate enough loyalty and even fealty to Donald Trump to stave off any challenge from someone seeking to prove even greater obeisance to the former President. But Trump is generally unpopular in Virginia, so candidates like Youngkin must stay in his orbit long enough to get nominated by a party base still loyal to Trump, but then pivot to the centre in hopes of winning a general election.

Here’s how Youngkin has succeeded so far. During the nomination struggle against several other Trump-aligned candidates, he touted his support for Trump and embraced the Big Lie that crucial irregularities marred and perhaps invalidated the November 2020 general election.

Youngkin’s appeals to Trump voters got more explicit just before the nominating convention when he barnstormed the state with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and appeared on TV with Fox News’s Tucker Carlson, who despite (or is it because of?) his consistently outrageous embrace of conspiracy theory-based nonsense has climbed to the summit of cable news popularity.

“Listen to what Tucker Carlson and I have to say about the liberal takeover of our schools in Virginia,” Youngkin tweeted four days before the convention, along with a video clip of his appearance. “Vote for me for governor on Saturday (May 8) and we’ll stop the left’s attack on our children’s education, our Pledge of Allegiance, & our Commonwealth.”

After winning the nomination, Youngkin was rewarded with the following endorsement from Trump:

“Glenn (Youngkin) is pro-Business, pro-Second Amendment (guns), pro-Veterans, pro-America. He knows how to make Virginia’s economy rip-roaring, and he has my Complete and Total Endorsement!”

But nominee Youngkin almost immediately began to pivot away from Trump. His campaign acknowledged to reporters that a video in which Youngkin touted praise he had received from Trump for working on a China trade deal had been removed from his YouTube page, claiming improbably that it was only because of the need to highlight other videos that are aimed at introducing him to voters.

No one who is paying attention believes that. Youngkin is trying to do what Republican candidates in many states will need to do next year: Win over Trump supporters in his own party to gain the nomination, then move steadily away from them in an attempt to actually get elected.

Observers expect many similar manoeuvers in the weeks and months to come. But the tightrope act will continue. Youngkin must be sure not to aggravate the mercurial Trump, who has often loudly disavowed one-time allies.

The nation will be closely watching to see how this political newcomer does in November.