Hurricane Irma: Four days to get ready; new map shows storm further south

As of Monday, September 4, 2017

10.25pm: Accuweather has supplied this new map (main picture) from 9.45pm. LINK for mobile users.

6.15pm UPDATE: Accuweather's latest Hurricane Irma tracking map (main picture) - LINK for mobile users

3.50pm UPDATE: The latest tracking map from Accuweather (main image) shows Hurricane Irma further south later in the week compared to yesterday's images.

By SANCHESKA DORSETT

Tribune Staff Reporter

sdorsett@tribunemedia.net

HURRICANE Irma is expected to be a major category four or category five hurricane as it moves closer to The Bahamas, according to Accuweather meteorologist Evan Duffy, who said on the system’s current track the eye of Irma will likely “cut very close to New Providence” by Friday bringing with it “heavy rains, flooding and strong winds.”

In an interview with The Tribune on Sunday, Mr Duffy said Irma, currently a category three hurricane, poses an imminent risk to the entire Bahamas because the system is growing and is not expected to weaken before it moves into Bahamian waters.

Kevin Nugent, a meteorologist from Baron Weather, a US agency, said Bahamians should “prepare for the worst but hope for the best”.

“Over the past 24 hours, the models have come together in better agreement and are predicating a hit for The Bahamas,” Mr Nugent said.

“We are at the point now where Bahamians need to begin making preparations,” he added. “By late Friday, early Saturday, the Bahamas will experience the impact of this hurricane. However, there is still time and a shift in track could make the difference between a direct hit and The Bahamas being spared.

“The hurricane will need to be monitored very closely as model guidance has come into better agreement and has shifted the track much closer to The Bahamas over the past 24 hours. The official NHC (National Hurricane Centre) forecast extends to 7am Friday morning and at that time the hurricane is forecast to be a category four storm near the Turks and Caicos,” Mr Nugent added.

Irma has been fluctuating in intensity over the past few days, but is expected to strengthen to a category four hurricane with sustained winds of 130-156mph on its closest approach to the islands.

According to Accuweather, the exact path of Irma beyond the middle of the week remains uncertain and will depend on a variety of factors. However, Mr Duffy said in all but one of the possible scenarios, The Bahamas will be greatly impacted.

“If and when this storm goes to The Bahamas, it will have a significant impact because the system is growing,” the Accuweather official said. “It is already a category three and is not projected to weaken because there is not a lot of land mass between The Bahamas and this system. So unless this tracks close to the Dominican Republic, The Bahamas will experience significant rain, wind, storm surges, rough surf and rip currents.

“Honestly we are still pretty far out but the models are coming together. Around Monday we expect the storm to turn to the north and west. This track will put Antigua and Barbuda, Montserrat, St Kitts and Nevis, Anguilla and the British Virgin Islands in the path of the storm. “Everyone in that area should be paying attention. After that is when things get confusing we have some different tracks possible. The first track goes west and passes the Antilles and if that were to occur, there would be significant impact to the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southern Bahamas including Inagua, Crooked Island, Ragged Island and Andros,” Mr Duffy said.

“That has a low chance of happening. The other path means the system will move west northwest away from the Dominican Republic and directly over Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas as a major category three or four hurricane. That’s bad news because the track literally runs the entire Bahamas. The island will get a direct hit, this has a moderate chance of happening. In the other track, the storm will run along the eastern side of the Bahama Islands causing issues for Cat Island, Eleuthera and Abaco and the eye will cut very close to New Providence. This track also has a moderate chance of happening and will cause a lot of issues.

“Another scenario has the system turning north west after it leaves the Dominican Republic and then it will graze the Bahamas. However, the wind impact would still be high, there will be plenty of rain and wind but the worst would be avoided, this also has a moderate chance of happening. Lastly, the storm could stay north and then move east and go somewhere between Bermuda and miss the Bahamas completely but that has a low chance of happening. The Bahamas will probably start seeing rough surf as early as tomorrow (Monday) and things will start picking up on Wednesday for the Turks and Caicos Islands.”

Local meteorologist Orson Nixon said Bahamians should be preparing for the worst.

“It is still a little far off but based on the models we use, most of them have the centre of Irma passing through the entire island chain or east of the island chain,” Mr Nixon said.

“Bahamians should prepare, the entire island chain needs to be ready. We have a few days to make arrangements because even in the best scenario the Bahamas will get tropical storm force winds. Irma should be a category four or five by the time it comes to the Bahamas. It is small now, but it is expected to expand in the next 72 hours, this will be bad for us,” Mr Nixon said.

As the storm approaches, officials have warned businesses against price gouging while urging residents to begin hurricane preparations.

John 6 years, 7 months ago

Fortunately most of the spaghetti models are showing the storm passing to the North East of the Bahamas. But as a local meteorologists said the steering currents that direct these hurricanes change constantly and so you must be vigilant and prepared.

tell_it_like_it_is 6 years, 7 months ago

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/...">https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/...

John 6 years, 7 months ago

Bahamians are not taking this one lightly. They are already shopping for hurricane supplies. With the effects of Hurricane Mathew still on their minds (some experiencing a hurricane for the first time as an adult). They are wiser.

sheeprunner12 6 years, 7 months ago

Which model is Basil Dean using?????? ......... How can we trust him after Joaquin?????

sheeprunner12 6 years, 7 months ago

This hurricane seems to be coming our way .......... Mandatory evacuations, states of emergency for affected islands and post-storm curfews better be enforced this time ...... each island needs to have a RBDF contingent on each island to bolster the police ...... hope those new RBDF boats are functioning this time around .......... God help us

ashley14 6 years, 7 months ago

I'm praying for all areas in danger. They are saying that this hurricane may be the strongest on record and could wipe towns off the map. We have family on the coast of the US and they are packing and getting out. On a Island, where do you go. Prayers for all and God is good.

banker 6 years, 7 months ago

If god is so good, why do you need prayers and why is he going to kill people or destroy their lives?

OMG 6 years, 7 months ago

Oh thank you for saying what I have always said. If there is this powerful God why can he not prevent the storm ? If he can't prevent the storm then he sure as hell can't do much about what happens afterwards.

John2 6 years, 7 months ago

The answer to your questions about God is very complex, God is omnipresent, he is every where, all Hurricanes are apart of his surpreme Being, The earth is the lord and the fullness there off, The world and they that dwell therein.Storms have a Purpose, Nature is God,Hurricanes are gods way of moving heat from one part of the planet and balancing the Temperature of the air and seas. Just as in war there are innocent casualties , Acts of nature cause casualties and i would not even attempt to question or try to answer why God allows people to Die in severe acts of nature ... but i can say this, Worship him in spirit and in truth and he will reveal the answers to your questions even if he takes years to do so.

Bonefishpete 6 years, 7 months ago

Is it time to depopulat the southern islands? Can government afford to continue to rebuild them?

sheeprunner12 6 years, 7 months ago

Are you smoking some of the Harold Road dump fumes???? ......... Compare the government's rebuild efforts of Joaquin and Matthew ....... who gets the contracts and the deals when the city is affected?? ....... not much work done in the South yet ........... and a Cat4 storm is upon us again ..... Private sponsors did far more for Joaquin than the PLP government .... Who knows what will happen this time???????

ThisIsOurs 6 years, 7 months ago

"Private sponsors did far more for Joaquin than the PLP government .... Who knows what will happen this time???????"

Nothing. Four months to get ready for hurricane season and "nothing". As I've said before, Dames hasn't realized as yet that he's the Minister of "national" security, not the commissioner and not the minister of "crime". FNM's need to wake up to what is not happening. There no time to "give them time". They should have been prepared for the "known" problems from day 1. The "timing" of this looming hurricane is the first unknown for an unprepared administration, who knows what else they will face before the end of the year. Demand something different.

They will have a rushed press conference with the same pat answers having done nothing to prepare any island for anything.

Jetflt 6 years, 7 months ago

Depopulate them and move where? Crazy ass Nassau??? No thank you!

banker 6 years, 7 months ago

I'm just hoping that she turns northward soon.

ThisIsOurs 6 years, 7 months ago

Actually maybe this isn't an "unknown", it seems like we've had some storm system the first week of every school year in recent memory...

Well_mudda_take_sic 6 years, 7 months ago

Abaco, New Providence and Grand Bahama stand to be hardest hit by Irma as a CAT 4-5 with sustained winds greater than 140-150 mph. Now that's what I call a trifecta! Unfortunately Minnis and KP will use this devastating event as an excuse to further drive up our already unsustainable national debt. Can't wait to hear which corrupt buffoon Minnis will appoint as his hurricane recovery Czar in the aftermath of Irma given his very poor judgement in appointing Marlon Johnson as Financial Secretary! I can hear Vomit and Shameless Shane laughing that if Minnis had no bad luck he would have no luck at all !!!!

ThisIsOurs 6 years, 7 months ago

Something is not right. Does anyone remember the uproar when Ishmael Lightbourne was appointed as VAT Czar? Christie admitted to wanting to help him out. Gave him control over one of the largest revenue budgets in the country. Just one. It's never good when a person in debt is given control of such large funds, it's an audit red flag. And the entire country knew it, certainly all FNM supporters did. It's one of the reasons the Constitution states an MP cannot be bankrupt. People voted for change, something is not right. FNM's need to open their eyes, the country needs to grow, we can't be satisfied with nice words and marketing campaigns. Remember Christies comforting words were that Gowon Bowe would be there to look after the money.

OMG 6 years, 7 months ago

You are deluded Mudd take sic. It was the PLP that drove debt to these unsustainable levels and left the following government with few options. On what planet do you live ?

John 6 years, 7 months ago

Irma is staying on a more Southwesterly course making a direct hit over the central and Southern Bahamas more probable. There is nothing to break the storm down and if it doesn't shift course the only thing to hope for is that it picks up speed and thereby spend less time over the islands. Some reports are predicting heavy sea surge (over 20 feet).

John 6 years, 7 months ago

The eye seems to be headed towards the South and Central coast of Cuba. Then moving across to the US . But there is a very interesting situation developing for the following week (Tuesday and Wednesday). Let your qualified weather people tell you what it is at the appropriate time. Hint how many eyes do you have?

John 6 years, 7 months ago

The spaghetti modules all showing Irma trekking further South and over Cuba for two days, then making a sharp turn to the North and over Florida (Miami Ft. Lauderdale). But look what happens on Tuesday-Wednesday...

John 6 years, 7 months ago

Ok so now they are saying itt on the Weather Channel another storm is possibly developing right behind Irma. Can probably be a named storm by Wednesday. Right off the coast of Hispaniola

John 6 years, 7 months ago

Jose expected to pass North of The Bahamas and head to the East coast of the US right behind Irma as it comes off the coast of Florida.

John 6 years, 7 months ago

Inagua will probably get a direct hit on Friday.

John 6 years, 7 months ago

Daryl Miller is telling the people the hurricane will hit the entire Bahamas, when it is trekking South and expected to cross over parts of Cuba

ThisIsOurs 6 years, 7 months ago

I don't blame him. He's filling the information gap. NEMA should have been in contact with each station to make sure correct info is disseminated. Especially the more popular shows

ashley14 6 years, 7 months ago

Banker and Omg I've asked all of those questions before. Without suffering there would be no compassion. I chose to have faith and believe in prayer. There is a reason for everything or so I believe. Well and I guess I could respond glad it's you and not me. Well what do you expect you live on a Island. Screw everyone else. That's not me. I have compassion and the love for people. I'm always nice because I chose to be. Well unless you mess with my family, well have you ever seen a momma bear. She would run. Kindness goes along way.

banker 6 years, 7 months ago

What worries me about religion is that it teaches people to be satisfied with not understanding the world they live in under the cloak of moral rectitude. You say that without suffering, there would be no compassion. That is not true. You can love someone without anyone suffering, and love embraces compassion. You can have compassion without suffering. I saw a colleague try to give a speech, and he failed miserably. He was so nerve-struck, that he forgot the words. He wasn't suffering and the whole room was compassionate and gave him an ovation.

There is a reason for everything as you say, but its not what you think. People get sick because they germs have invaded their bloodstreams and the leucocytes cannot fight it. Hurricanes come because of thermal dynamics in meterological conditions. People have accidents due to a confluence of factors and events that spontaneously meet at one place in time. Cancer may happen because a free radical from something as innocuous as an element in the flour in a slice of bread happens to react with cellular DNA and damage it, causing the cells to grow uncontrollably. Mental illness happens from chemical imbalances in serotonin and dopamines among other brain receptors.

You can choose to have faith and believe in prayer, but its laughable to write it as fact in news article comments, that prayer makes a difference in where people might die or lose everything they have. The hurricane is coming and it can't be prayed away. We learned that with Hurricane Matthew last year. You can't pray anything away - cancer, homosexuality, bad luck, the weather, poverty, ugliness or stupidity. Some will be lucky and be saved and some won't. Things are neither good nor bad in a rational world -- just their perceptions of them on an individual level. What is bad for you might be good for me.

I am sure that you are a very nice person, but faith or belief in God doesn't make you any nicer. What makes you nice is a choice of behaviour. You would be nice if you were an atheist too -- probably nicer because you would realise that gays can't help it, and what religion calls some sins, are intrinisic drives of sexuality, human behaviour, survival behaviour and evolved behaviours from our animal past. The sooner that mankind releases the superstitions of religion, the sooner we will advance towards a totally enlightened society.

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