The Tribune

A TROPICAL wave was being monitored last night as it tracked through the central Caribbean with the potential to hit the southern Bahamas by Wednesday.

The wave was yesterday centred just to the south of Hispaniola and southeast of Jamaica.

Satellite imagery showed disorganised showers and thunderstorms, but some turning was evident in the cloud pattern, said AccuWeather.com meteorologists.

They said conditions were generally favourable for development over the next few days as the system moved slowly westward, and it may organise enough to become the 18th named storm of the year in the Atlantic.

If that happens, the next name on the 2012 list in the Atlantic would be Sandy.

Computer forecasts show the tropical wave becoming more organised today and tomorrow, south of Hispaniola and southeast of Jamaica, while slowing its forward progress.

The westward progress of the wave will be slowed by a zone of high pressure located over the southeastern United States and northern Gulf of Mexico.

It’s possible that the wave stalls out over the central Caribbean for a time early this week.

The wave will then run into a zone of stronger southwesterly winds aloft by Tuesday and Tuesday night, which could cause it to take a more northerly track through western Cuba or near Haiti.

A track like this would then hit the Turks and Caicos and the southern Bahamas on Wednesday through Thursday before being picked up by a dip in the jet stream and carried out to sea.

In this case, AccuWeather.com meteorologists say there is a risk of prolonged heavy rains and flooding across Haiti, Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, the southern Bahamas and Jamaica.

If and how development takes place will depend largely on where and when the current tropical wave organises.

Forecasters are also watching another area of low pressure several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands for potential development.

Conditions are forecast to become a bit more favourable for development over the next day or two and they say this feature bears watching along with the wave in the Caribbean.