The Tribune

EDITOR, The Tribune.

Free National Movement (FNM) Leader Dr. Hubert Minnis will face the greatest challenge of his political career when he defends his leadership post against Deputy Leader Loretta Butler-Turner at the upcoming convention.

Conventional wisdom suggests that as the incumbent FNM leader, Minnis has the clear advantage over Butler-Turner and will win the leadership election by a comfortable margin. However, in light of the growing pockets of resistance to Minnis within the FNM, it is nonetheless within a remote realm of possibility that Minnis could lose his leadership post to his deputy. Minnis, based on his recent video ad in which he sought to defend his tenure as FNM leader, realises that support for him as leader is by no stretch of the imagination unanimous within the FNM.

It is quite possible that a fraction of the delegates who will be voting on November 21 are sympathetic to Butler-Turner and will support her. They may have chosen to remain mum in their support for Butler-Turner for fear of appearing disloyal to FNMs who are in favour of supporting Minnis. Whatever the case may be, Minnis losing to Butler-Turner is a very scary proposition for his votaries. However, it is something that should at least be considered by the Minnis camp. It isn’t wise to put all your eggs into one basket. It would be prudent of the Minnis camp to devise a plan B in the event that he loses to Butler-Turner. This might sound farfetched, but I believe that Minnis should negotiate a deal with Butler-Turner to work along with her in the event she wins the election. The same goes for Butler-Turner. Neither should be relegated to the political dumpyard if the election does not go their way. Despite being constantly ridiculed as an inept leader by Butler-Turner backers, Minnis would be a massive addition to her campaign in 2017, if she is FNM leader. A disgruntled Minnis would pose just as much of a challenge to a Butler-Turner led FNM as would the Progressive Liberal Party. As a political spoiler, he could easily discourage his FNM backers to steer far away from the polls in 2017, thus paving the way for another PLP victory. A disgruntled Minnis could abandoned the FNM and run in Killarney as an independent and still win, due to his sheer popularity in that community.

Butler-Turner backers need to stop underestimating Minnis. While it is plausible that a disgruntled Butler-Turner could influence many FNMs not to support a Minnis led FNM, it is equally plausible seeing her causing the FNM to lose the FNM stronghold of Long Island, if she abandons the party and runs as an independent. Former FNM MP for Long Island Larry Cartwright did it before when he ran as an independent and won in 2002. That is why it is of paramount importance that Minnis and Butler-Turner, if their relationship is strained, seek reconciliation for the good of the party. In its current state, the FNM is too splintered to win in 2017.

KEVIN EVANS

Nassau,

November 9, 2014.