The Tribune

“We don’t make choices in politics – others make them for us.” - Earl Deveaux

By LARRY SMITH

WITH less than eight months to the next British general election, the opposition Labour Party appears to be having buyer’s remorse over its choice of leader. In fact, there are some interesting parallels with the political situation here.

After Labour’s 2010 loss, the defeated prime minister - Gordon Brown - resigned as party leader and sank from view (although he continues to represent his Scottish constituency). Hubert Ingraham did the same here in 2012, but also quit parliament, watching as his formerly safe Abaco seat was captured by the PLP in a by-election.

A few months after the 2010 defeat, 40-year-old Ed Miliband (a former energy secretary) was elected leader of the Labour Party over his older brother David (a former foreign secretary). But the younger Miliband has been unable to galvanise his party.

Critics say he lacks style and authority, despite four years in the job. “What is the vision? What are the values? And more importantly, (what is) the narrative?” asked one party leader recently. “Because quite frankly, the Tories have a narrative and we don’t.”

As a writer in the Economist magazine put it: “there is very little love for the government but perhaps even less enthusiasm for the alternative. And yet, there is a deep underlying disgruntlement with politics and a broad foreboding about the future.”

He could almost be talking about the Bahamas.

When the dispirited rump of the FNM gathered at the Holy Trinity Activities Centre on May 26, 2012, they elected Dr Hubert Minnis, the former health minister, as party leader unopposed. Loretta Butler-Turner was chosen as deputy, the late Charles Maynard as chairman and Dr Duane Sands as deputy chairman.

Conceding that the party could have communicated “earlier and better” the work it had done while in office, Minnis nevertheless told the convention “we must be honest about our mistakes and open to constructive criticism”.

He spoke of a more bi-partisan and constructive approach to politics, promising to work with the government to address rising crime and other issues. “Our goal is to improve life for all Bahamians no matter one’s political persuasion.”

But more than two years later there is “tremendous dissatisfaction over the fact that we have given the PLP an unbelievable pass as they stumble from one disaster to the next, whilst our supporters look on aghast,” according to Dr Sands.

Despite having been a senior cabinet minister, Dr Minnis apparently gives too many voters the impression that he is a rookie, rather than a potential prime minister. He has yet to convince the electorate that he has the personal qualities needed to lead the Bahamas.

According to a former colleague, “Minnis and others have not done a good job of enlightening voters on what is going on in the Bahamas and the world. Most Bahamians can live with either a PLP or FNM government, but they want a strong opposition to counter whichever party is in power. The current situation fills a lot of people with fear.”

In such circumstances, Mrs Butler-Turner’s more aggressive style has attracted a lot of attention. “This is not the first time the FNM has been in this position,” she told me recently, referring to the 2002 defeat which came just before she entered politics full-time. “Unfortunately, I feel Minnis did not leverage all of the talents he had available, and if I hadn’t started to talk in the early days, the PLP would be riding roughshod over us now.”

Mrs Butler-Turner said the small band of surviving FNMs were “willing to work very hard after the election to keep things together and keep the party moving. I was caught in the middle because of my more in-your-face style – and the less Minnis had to say, the more people began to say that he just didn’t have what it takes. Now he is accusing me of undermining his leadership.”

It is no secret these days that Dr Minnis and his deputy don’t see eye to eye. In fact, party insiders say their differences are now irreconcilable, and a divorce is required. This deteriorating situation has led FNM backers to push for an early leadership election to clear the air and set the stage for the 2017 campaign. A one-day convention has been scheduled for this showdown on November 21.

“The original balance between Minnis and Loretta could have worked, but the conflict at the leadership level is a genuine distraction now,” one party insider told me. “People see blood in the water, so they become more aggressive in jockeying for position. And a lot of it is done in the press, which means we are often working at cross purposes.”

In the words of Dr Sands, “the estranged couple battle has become the main event, so there is a push for an early convention to resolve the issue. It’s the same with the PLP. The letter of intent is the pre-divorce proceeding between Brave Davis and Perry Christie, but all eyes are focused on the FNM now. We need to get to the point where people are feeling the leader or we are in trouble.”

According to a close friend, “Minnis is considered an outsider in the party. He is not part of the main factions and he’s having a tough time – especially following Ingraham’s legacy. They won’t allow him to lead. He is a straight shooter and a hard worker, but he is hardly ever on the attack. He should do what he needs to do now and solidify his position.”

Dr Minnis is a fairly unusual figure in Bahamian politics – a 50-year-old technocrat who pulled himself up from a life of poverty in Bain Town to become a top physician and successful businessman. He was first elected to parliament in 2007, but seems to have no taste for the vicious political tribalism that most Bahamian politicians revel in.

In various published articles and speeches, he has called for a new Bahamas where government is transparent and accountable, acting in the best interest of all citizens to move the nation forward.

“I believe in putting the national interests over the special interests, in putting principle above politics. The national agenda supersedes politically polarising and personal agendas. With less partisanship in governance comes the eradication of victimisation in our society. I believe we can do better. I believe we must do better.”

These are fine sentiments, reminiscent of Ingraham’s early reformist tendencies when he promised to “replace fear with fair”. Dr Minnis clearly has financial resources as well as the cachet that comes from being a self-made man, but is he able to effectively communicate the issues to a disenchanted audience, as Ingraham successfully did in 1992?

Ed Miliband, the British Labour Party leader who is in a similar predicament to Dr Minnis, recently gave a speech in which he lamented the modern political obsession over image rather than substance.

What the public wanted, he said, was ideas, policies, programmes and hard-edged initiatives.

Unfortunately, at the present time, the FNM has neither image nor substance. As one party insider put it: “We have been fairly conservative, both in and out of parliament, but there are limits to what we can do with newbies and retirees filling most of our few seats.”

A clear example is the inaction of the Public Accounts Committee, which is chaired by St Anne’s MP Hubert Chipman, a senior accountant. The PAC is the only parliamentary committee on which the opposition has a majority and can take the initiative. It is supposed to report within 60 days of the start of each parliamentary session, but you would never even know that it exists.

However, reconstruction is said to have begun. “We have formed a platform committee to develop concrete positions on all the major issues,” a party spokesman told me. “We are evaluating everything – legislative positions, policies, programmes and projects. And knowledgeable working groups are being attached to each shadow minister to help them advance firm positions. We are also looking to get candidates in the field as early as possible.”

There is no doubt that the Christie administration has proved to be a bitter disappointment for many Bahamians. Its main achievements to date have been the regularising of the webshops and the introduction of Value Added Tax – in the face of continued heavy spending on pet political projects.

The PLP has lost all credibility from its flagrant disregard of planning laws and environmental safeguards whenever politics gets in the way. And the party’s aged chieftains have reverted to a style of governance more suited to the bad old days of the 1980s, deliberately rolling back our slow and halting progress towards greater accountability in public affairs.

In the face of what appears to be a major slide in support for the government, the $64,000 question is what can Dr Minnis or anyone else do to reignite FNM prospects and give the party lift-off?

On Monday, Mrs Butler-Turner announced that she would challenge Dr Minnis for the leadership in order to “unite, reignite and lead the opposition to defeat a failed government. I believe there are very distinct differences between the major parties. The FNM must be clear about those differences and consistent in our positions and convictions”.

Meanwhile, the race for deputy leadership has attracted a broad range of candidates – from Dr Sands to Carl Bethel to Darron Cash to Frederick McAlpine to Michael Pintard.

Ironically, like Ed Miliband in the UK, if Dr Minnis does win power, it could be due to a third party splitting the vote. In Britain, that party is UKIP, which is to the right of the Conservatives. In the Bahamas, it is of course the Democratic National Alliance, which cannibalised the FNM in 2012 but seems more likely to do the same to the incumbent PLP this time around.

As for the PLP itself, “Brave” Davis has finally given up on his inscrutable comments and issued a clear backhanded slap to the prime minister over the letter of intent controversy: “The prime minister has asked Wells to resign and Wells has not

resigned. How does that make the prime minister

weak? I am waiting for the prime minister to act. He marches to his own drum so let us see that drum roll.”

There is a feeling amongst some in the FNM that if Dr Minnis’ position strengthens over the coming months, Mr Christie may indeed face a revolt in his own party to push him out. But for the moment he is viewed as both an asset and a liability.

As for the DNA, there is no question of a leadership contest there. Bran McCartney was anointed before the last election and he remains the chief advert for the party. Although young and attractive, few are convinced he has the right stuff to be prime minister. Critics describe him as an opportunist who “picks at the raw sores of Bahamian society without any attempt to uplift us”.

Perhaps the biggest wild card of all is not former prime minister Ingraham (who is said to be testing the waters) but Brent Symonette, who may well run for deputy leader of the FNM. According to one insider, “we don’t want to repeat history in terms of alternate leaders and splits. Brent could alleviate that problem. The big question is whether he has the alligator hide to suffer the vicious personal attacks that would surely follow”.

The goals of the FNM’s November 21 convention are clear – to maintain party unity, avoid an Ingraham comeback and confirm a viable leader. In short, it’s crunch time for Dr Hubert Minnis.

• What do you think? Send comments to lsmith@tribunemedia.net or visit www.bahamapundit.com.