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Society a ‘write-off’ if no middle class ‘reboot’

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Bahamian society will be a “write-off” if it fails to “reboot” its middle class, a trade union leader warning that this nation will suffer a devalued dollar if it fails to rapidly address its numerous challenges.

Obie Ferguson, the Trades Union Congress (TUC) president, told Tribune Business that the Bahamas still has to deliver true economic empowerment and opportunity despite being an independent nation for 42 years.

He added that the country had to “come to grips quickly” with the dearth of leadership in politics, the church and the trade union movement, otherwise it would be “literally in a mess” and unable to deal with its many problems.

And the TUC leader also called for labour and the private sector to get “in sync”, reiterating that increased productivity and performance-related pay should be at the forefront of all industrial agreements.

Mr Ferguson, speaking after his Thursday night address to workers at St Gregory’s Anglican Church Hall, told Tribune Business that policymakers needed to have a “brainstorming session” on how to relieve pressure on the Bahamian middle class.

Recalling a recent conversation with a banking executive, he added: “The bank manager told me that every day someone is losing their home, and these are middle class Bahamians.

“You can almost write-off the society if you don’t have a vibrant, buoyant middle class. If you don’t have that, nothing will happen.”

The Bahamian middle class has been caught in an ever-tightening squeeze following the 2008-2009 recession, as the introduction of Value-Added Tax (VAT) and increased living costs have outpaced any rise in incomes.

Mr Ferguson said the middle class’s plight was one of the many challenges facing the Bahamas, ranging from crime and high unemployment to a $6.2 billion national debt and threat of a further credit rating downgrade.

Asked what would happen if the Bahamas failed to respond properly, and promptly, the TUC leader replied: “The country will be in a mess.

“If we don’t economically empower people, if we don’t deal with crime, if we don’t empower the middle class, if we don’t curtail expenditure and collect government revenue on a consistent basis, the country will literally be in a mess.

“The dollar will be devalued. It can have a very serious effect on the country. These things go right to the root of your country.”

Mr Ferguson said the next threat could come as early as January 2016, given that Standard & Poor’s (S&P) had indicated it could downgrade the Bahamas’ credit rating to so-called ‘junk’ status as early as that date.

And, subsequent to the prior downgrade, the Bahamas was having to deal with the unexpected impact of Hurricane Joaquin, which will extra unplanned spending on the Government’s part and further throw the Budget projections out-of-line.

Mr Ferguson, in his speech on Thursday night, warned that the Bahamas was “in crisis”, and urged workers and union members to set aside political differences in becoming part of the solution.

In a wide-ranging address that challenged Bahamian workers to wake-up, and shake-off their complacency and the status quo, Mr Ferguson likened the country’s response to its predicament to ‘the frog in a pot of boiling water’.

“A frog was placed in a pot of water,” the TUC leader said. “The stove was turned on real low. The frog got really comfortable; he loved it.

“Over time the heat was turned up more and more. It seems to me the frog became immune to the heat. I believe the frog was so comfortable that he laid back crossed his legs and relaxed with his hands under his head.

“It is easy for us to say the frog was stupid. I see some similarities in our attitudes towards crime and ownership for Bahamians in our country.”

Mr Ferguson said he could recall when one murder was a shock to Bahamians, and the complacency of politicians who argued that it was “the inner city boys killing themselves” as the rate increased.

“No worries, over 100 murders in one year was not a thought. It was a nightmare in the world of impossibilities,” the TUC leader added.

“The middle class, home for thousands of union members is decreasing rather than increasing. Going backwards is not a good thing. It happens when we lose sight of the vision and plan for our country.”

Mr Ferguson argued that “confusion, crime, joblessness and hopelessness have been allowed to take centre stage in our country”, and suggested that little changed in terms of economic equality and opportunity since Majority Rule in 1967.

The TUC leader argued that the Bahamas was still being run by an ‘elite’, albeit one whose composition had changed since 1967 to include more black families, and that a true meritocracy has still to emerge in this nation.

“The attitude of leaders towards industrial agreements, access to ownership opportunities for Bahamians, seems to suggest that there is not much difference between pre-majority rule elites than the post-majority rule elites,” Mr Ferguson said.

“Most of them covet having a small community. Forty-two years later we still want an ‘opportunity economy’. An opportunity economy is still eluding us.”

He even suggested that the United Bahamian Party (UBP) had done the most to empower Bahamian entertainers such as Freddie Munnings Jnr and Peanuts Taylor through linking small businesses with the hotel/tourism industry.

“It was the mindset of majority rule governance that shut down the businesses of our local entertainers. Today we have to search high and low to hire a limbo dancer, fire dancer or local bands,” Mr Ferguson said.

Crediting the Progressive Liberal Party’s (PLP) ‘Bahamianisation’ policy with helping to create a middle class, Mr Ferguson said that unlike the ‘frog in the pot’, the Bahamas had the ability to escape from its current position provided its citizens focused more on what was good for the country as opposed to ‘self’.

“Whether we like it or not, whether we accept it or not, the clock is ticking,” he added. “We cannot continue to be like the frog, placing all bets that Baha Mar will come through in the nick of time for a good Christmas.

“Instead, we should be resolved like the warriors of the quiet revolution, that never again in the history of our country should the strength of our economy depend on one project. Quite frankly it is disgraceful. It is the residue of slavery when can only look to foreigners for leadership in economic growth.

“We will reboot the middle class, expand it, and make wealth common when we buy into a common vision.”

Calling for employers to buy into his call for increased workforce productivity, Mr Ferguson again urged that all industrial agreements contain such clauses.

“It is unacceptable that the Bahamas has the lowest productivity levels among 30 Caribbean and Latin American countries. We cannot increase ownership and prosperity with low productivity levels,” he said.

The TUC leader also recommended that the Government empower small businesses and Bahamian entrepreneurs via Crown Land grants, thus providing them with much-needed collateral.

Urging Bahamians to spend at home, Mr Ferguson called on the Bahamas Electricity Corporation (BEC) to discount power bills for small businesses in the run-up to Christmas.

He added that all too often, Bahamian politicians only listened to the trade unions and ordinary citizens when they needed them - at election time.

“You and I are made to feel very special when silly season starts. Well, silly season is upon us but this is no time for us to be ‘silly’,” Mr Ferguson said.

Comments

banker 8 years, 6 months ago

The Bahamian middle class was largely artificial in the first place. It was based on unionised workers in the service industry, in a monolithic economy dominated by large foreign companies with deep pockets operating the resorts.

This worked well when the tourism product was in heavy demand. It was the engine that drove the economy, and elevated the middle class. That engine is sputtering and dying, and no amount of brainstorming, as Obie suggests, is going to reboot the middle class.

The "middle class" is defined economically in various ways. One metric is that one is a member of the middle class if they make between 67% and 200% of the national average, and do not spend more than 30% of their income on housing and have enough money to live. Another measure is to divide the population and subtract the top 20% of incomes and the bottom 20% of incomes and what is left is the middle class. All of these measures are predicated on a diverse economy.

If you know anything about math, you can see the issues here. If in fact you do make between 67% and 200% of the average, and the average is so low, that you cannot live decently, you are not really middle class in the semantic sense that you do not have enough money to live on.

Or, suppose that the the bulk of the population resides in the lowest 20% of the income distribution, because the range of income distribution is low (meaning that the top wage is not very high amongst the ordinary people), then being in the middle class isn't saying much, and it doesn't take much to drop you in the lower classes.

The middle class has been in a ten year decline in most developed countries. This is part of a trend where the upper income classes are going with the knowledge industries populated by educated people. People with no specialised education and skills are dropping into the lower income classes.

I'm afraid that because of the level of education and the lack of economic diversity, nothing can stop the slide of the "middle class" in the Bahamas. Consumer debt is at stratospheric levels, incomes are not rising, unemployment is rising, and tourism which drives the whole engine, is flat.

There is economic good news on the horizon, and nothing can reboot it. The only method to save the Bahamas economy, is to diversify as fast as possible, while improving education for the next generations. These generations are doomed, as well as those in the education system today.

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