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RICARDO'S NFL PICKS: Conference Championship

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Ricardo Wells

By RICARDO WELLS

rwells@tribunemedia.net

TRENDING on trends seems to be the newest trend.

Yes, beyond being a tongue twister, my awkward arrangement of words might be the best way to describe what the NFL playoffs have been about.

The wildcard round was all about the “road warrior” trend. Tough defensive-minded teams envying the opposing teams’ building with one focus - win no matter what.

The divisional round was the complete opposite: last week was all about top seeds delivering tough, home wins against teams that could have easily taken them out.

This is championship week and some trends can be easily identified. We have the top two seeds on both sides and the final four will do battle with a trip to Super Bowl 50 on the line.

A couple of house keeping notes: I was 3-1 on the picks last week, 6-2 in the post-season.

New England Patriots

(12-4) @ Denver

Broncos (12-4)

1) The New England Patriots find themselves in the AFC Championship for the fifth consecutive year and the tenth time in the last 15 years - winning six of those nine appearances. Their three loses came against a Peyton Manning-led Broncos team in 2014, the 2013 Baltimore Ravens and a 2007 loss to a Peyton Manning-led Colts team.

2) Manning is 2-1 against Brady in conference title games, his only loss coming in 2004.

3) Manning is 3-1 in conference title games overall and 3-0 at home (the Broncos are home this weekend).

4) Brady is 11-5 against Manning over the course of their careers, 2-2 in the post-season.

5) Of the six times Tom has travelled to Peyton’s stadium for a game he has beaten him three times.

6) Through Week 16 of the regular season the Broncos allowed 882 receiving yards to tight ends on 75 receptions for six touchdowns. Rob Gronkowski scored 11 touchdowns and caught 72 passes for a total of 1,176 yards.

In the regular season match-up the Broncos targeted the knees of ‘Gronk’ in an effort to slow him down. He was injured and unable to finish the game.

With the trends pointed out, here are the picks:

HEART: PATRIOTS

MIND: PATRIOTS

PICK: PATRIOTS

Arizona Cardinals

(13-3) @ Carolina

Panthers (15-1)

1) Low-tier fantasy defence (Arizona) versus top-tier fantasy quarterback (Cam Newton).

2) Panthers’ last home loss came on November 16, 2014, against the Atlanta Falcons.

3) Carson Palmer is 1-2 in post-season play, Cam Newton is 2-2. Neither has ever made it this far.

4) Larry Fitzgerald is 5-3 in the post-season, with 53 catches, 912 yards and 10 touchdowns.

5) Both the Panthers and Cardinals have made only one trip to the Super Bowl.

Cardinals lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2008 while Panthers lost to the New England Patriots in 2003.

HEART: CARDINALS

MIND: PANTHERS

PICK: CARDINALS

My trend - road teams and second seeds rule supreme this week.

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