Low growth causes ‘major brain drain’

As of Friday, April 28, 2017

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The Bahamian economy’s inability to grow over the last four years is exacerbating the “brain drain” of this nation’s brightest minds and talents, the Democratic National Alliance’s (DNA) leader warned yesterday.

Branville McCartney told Tribune Business that increasing numbers of Bahamians studying abroad were choosing to remain overseas after graduating, due to a lack of opportunities at home and quality of life issues.

Linking the lack of job and entrepreneurial opportunities directly to the Bahamas’ low to no GDP growth, the DNA leader said gifted Bahamians “have no choice” but to stay abroad “unless things change drastically”.

Mr McCartney told Tribune Business: “I was talking to my daughter this morning. More and more students are staying abroad, and have made their minds up not to come home unless things change drastically.

“This is because of lack of opportunity and they feel unsafe. How can they have these opportunities if there’s no economic growth in four years? Four years!

“It’s causing a significant brain drain. They have no choice but to stay elsewhere. It’s not happening in the Bahamas. That’s the reality.”

Mr McCartney’s comments highlight another dimension to the Bahamas’ GDP growth crisis, namely the disincentives provided for many of its most talented products to return home after completing their studies.

With college and university-educated Bahamians increasingly ‘staying away’, this nation is denied the talented managers and entrepreneurs that can drive the economy and society, exacerbating the ‘low growth’ outlook.

Tribune Business revealed earlier this week how the Bahamas had just suffered its fourth consecutive year with no economic growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projecting that this nation endured zero GDP expansion in 2016.

While this represented an ‘improvement’ upon the prior two years of recession, the Bahamian economy having contracted by 0.5 per cent and 1.7 per cent in 2014 and 2015, respectively, the 2016 performance was still below the Government’s own 0.5 per cent growth projection.

And, given that IMF data shows the Bahamas also enjoyed 0 per cent GDP growth in 2013, this nation has gone four years - most of the Christie administration’s term in office - without positive economic growth.

“The bottom line is that we need to change the way this country is governed and make sure there is fiscal responsibility, that the wastage and mismanagement in government comes to a stop,and we cut out the corruption that is costing the country millions and millions of dollars,” Mr McCartney told Tribune Business.

“It’s going to take more than Baha Mar, and there’s nothing on the horizon for this economy to grow under this administration. There’s hardly any significant foreign investment. It’s rare you see local investors investing in their own economy because doing business in this country is terrible.

“The bureaucracy and red tape is a deterrent, and the corruption again.... This Government has to be removed in order for us to grow, or I can see our economy continue to be downgraded.”

Mr McCartney said that in sharp contrast to the Bahamas, Caribbean rivals such as the Dominican Republic, Haiti and Cuba had all produced economic growth during the 2012-2015 period.

“It was bad under the FNM and got worse under the PLP,” Mr McCartney said of the economy, linking the lack of growth and jobs directly to persistently high crime levels. “Perry Christie should put his head down in shame.”

The IMF’s World Economic Outlook provided no explanation for the Bahamas’s failure to meet initial 2016 GDP growth projections, although this is likely to have been caused by Hurricane Matthew’s initial impact.

The immediate outlook for the Bahamas, though, is brighter, with the IMF forecasting GDP growth of 1.4 per cent and 2.2 per cent for this year and 2018, respectively. The former is higher than the 1 per cent estimated by the Government in its May Budget.

Much of the return to growth is likely connected to Baha Mar’s opening, with the property’s full impact set to be felt next year when it becomes fully operational, in line with the IMF’s forecast.

However, the Fund is also predicting that Bahamian GDP growth rates will slacken off following Baha Mar’s first year unless new sources of impetus are found, with this nation’s economy forecast to expand by just 1.3 per cent in 2022.

Even at the Baha Mar post-opening ‘peak’, such growth rates remain woefully short of the 5.5 per cent that the Fund said was needed to both absorb all new entrants into the Bahamian workforce and cut existing jobless rates in half.

Porcupine 6 years, 11 months ago

Even if we had stellar economic growth, thinking people who have a reasonable choice would stay away from this intellectual backwater. The social collapse we are experiencing is fairly evident to those who pick up a book from time to time. Sadly, that does not appear to be a significant percentage of the population here.

banker 6 years, 11 months ago

I don't think folks realise how dire the times are and how precarious our situation is. Hence it will come as a big shock to the unprepared. I do know that a fair number of Bahamians (mostly business people) have been making contingency plans since 2007.

OMG 6 years, 11 months ago

Don't keep Bahamian dollars get USD like Shane. All the recently and past talented Bahamian students consider working abroad where your political persuasion doesn't matter, wages are better, prices are cheaper and your working environment better. Mind you I am told that the 52 week government employment program is about to start next week. If true what a coincidence ?

Gotoutintime 6 years, 11 months ago

Anyone who could afford to leave the Bahamas has done so!

John 6 years, 11 months ago

The biggest problem with the economy is The government has been so fatally obsessed with Bah Mar since they came to office that they let many other opportunities to grow the economy slip and slide away. And on top of that they failed to address the problem of crime in the country, murders especially. Beyond that many traditional jobs have become obsolete because of the advancement of electronic technology and the retail sector and banking has been extremely hard hit by this. The tourism numbers have also been lackluster and we continue to give our natural resources away including our Human Resources. And on top of that we continue to rely on the foreign element to invest in and grow our economy. Unfortunately many of the foreigners who come here to 'invest ' and selfish and greedy and many are racist who tend to exclude Bahamians from their business plan, especially when then discover "our labor ain't for free no more." But yes our government continues to have faith in the foreign investors and continue to get disappointed by them. There are so many opportunities for Bahamians to grow this country to the point where it will hundreds of brain drainers back home. If government would only give them half the incentives and support they give the foreign opportunists. The US is the country that consumes most of our immigrants. And sometimes you meet second and third generations of Bahamians. Some who have never been to the Bahamas. Others who have only visited a few times. Many are well educated and have high skilled, high powered and high paying jobs. Call them experts and professionals. But the thing they have in common is they want to return home. They don't want to always be a foreigner in another country. And one day this is going to happen. It will change the face of the Bahamas. And we will no longer have these people coming from half way around the world exploiting us and abusing our people.

BMW 6 years, 11 months ago

John you sound like an excuse machine. Stop blaming our own slacknees, our own laziness, our own corrupt practices on other people, look in the mirror dude! My kids grew up here and were college educated in the U.S. and stayed there after graduating, there is nothing and I mean NOTHING here for them. Until Bahamians completely understand that it takes immigrants from all walks of life to build a country we are doomed.

Economist 6 years, 11 months ago

BMW, you speak blasphemy. "Immigration" You have spoken of the unspeakable, God forbid.

You speak of what the educated know must happen to build this Country.

But we have so many unenlightened citizens who have been listening to the garbage spewed out by the politicians for the last 40 years. How do we turn such a morass around?

When and only when we open immigration to other educated persons will we see the country turn around and the return of our expatriate Bahamians.

Our expatriate Bahamians are not afraid of immigration, they know how to compete. They know what is required.

Our Country is totally un-competitive, even against Turks and Caicos, Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the DR and so on. Once we led them all.

We must open immigration to survive.

Bonefishpete 6 years, 11 months ago

John, keep blaming Bahamas troubles on the Foreigners and Whitey. Maybe if both were kicked out I'm sure everything would be dandy.

John 6 years, 11 months ago

BMW how can you call me slack, lazy and corrupt when you don't know me.? Make your mother proud and continue to spew your racial bullsh!t. You with your dirty brains want us to think that of Bahamians while you come here and rape our country. Nothing more dangerous than a self serving hypocrite.

John 6 years, 11 months ago

Under the Pindling regime not only did the PLP government control the job market and ensure jobs went mostly to PLP supporters and their families but they did the same thing with scholarships. So for two decades mostly PLP's were going off on scholarships and were guaranteed jobs when they return. Today many young people are going off on private scholarships including athletics. The biggest setback when they return home and wanting to start a business is financing.

BMW 6 years, 11 months ago

John you paint me with a broad brush. I will answer so that you fully understand where I am coming from. My Mother was very proud of her B. B.& B.B. son God rest her ever Loving soul. Let me make myself perfectly clear to you John This writer was BRED, BORN and BROUGHTUP BAHAMIAN so don't come at me with YOUR racist xenophobic bullshit my friend. I am educated enough to know what we need to do to get ahead as a nation. Now to answer the second part of your comment, slack and lazy, go to any department of government and you will get your answer, corrupt , shame Gibson, nose fitzgerald, witch maynard. and we as Bahamians allow this to happen!

Your second post hits the nail on the head SLOP did control the job market and like you say he saw to it that jobs went mostly to plunder loot and pillage supporters, as for jobs on returning home, what jobs????? Our biggest set back are politicians that feel it is necessary to take care of friends family and lovers by using BOB like it was their own bank too plunder loot and pillage. Other banks see the writing on the wall and make it much more difficult to source loans. Why does the plunder loot and pillage not lend these people the money they need?

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