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The statistics of crime

EDITOR, The Tribune.

Thank you for lending your ear to my concern.

Let us think about our society as it relates to crime.

During the year there are a number of serious crimes. According to the IDB’s (International Development Bank) report on crime and violence dated June 2016 a number of statistics were revealed. In this report there were statistics concerning violent crimes in 2013. Per one hundred thousand there were 787.8 assaults, 270.8 arm robberies, 31.5 murders and 27.6 rapes.

For the sake of my opinion, let us work on the unrealistic (assumption) that 80 percent of those crimes were solved across the board. That would mean that in 2014 there would have been 157.56 assaulters, 54.16 armed robbers, 6.3 murderers and 5.52 rapists who would have evaded capture (per one hundred thousand).

To solidify my opinion, we will also assume that in 2018 there would be a flat 20 percent decrease in all crimes (another optimistic assumption) since 2014. That gives us approximately, 126.046 assaulters, 43.32 armed robbers, 5.04 murderers and 4.41 rapists, per one hundred thousand, who will avoid capture this year. They will be circulating among us until capture or a decision to change their ways.

Now without further elaborate calculations, it is quite reasonable to suspect that in a randomly rounded up group of 50,000 people their will be a guarantee that some criminals will be in attendance. It is a numbers game.

The people charged with avoiding ordinary citizen getting in the cross-hairs of these criminals can only advise on how not to become a target of crime. Because, crime will continue for at least the foreseeable future.

To avoid murders and assaults, people are asked to watch how they deal with misunderstandings.

To avoid robbers, people are asked to not to be flashy.

Criminals are not reasonable people. If they were reasonable, they would not be criminals.

... But it is my right to walk in the crowd during junkanoo with my big gold chain around my neck, diamond bracelet, Rolex watch, Jordan tennis, Fendi bag, polo shirt and my pockets bulging with money.

CHARLES FORBES

Nassau,

January 11, 2018.

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