The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The Bahamas could enjoy a $300m boost to annual economic growth if murder rates were reduced to world average levels, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected.

The Fund, in its latest Western Hemisphere economic outlook, also found that between 60 - 70 per cent of Bahamian university graduates and highly skilled workers continued to emigrate, resulting in a significant "brain drain" of this nation's best and brightest.

These findings were disclosed as the IMF's GDP growth projections revealed that, after a temporary "blip" this year, The Bahamas' annual expansion rate will again dip between the Latin American region's average in 2019.

Aided by Baha Mar's full opening, and other tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in 2018, the IMF expects Bahamian GDP to grow by 2.5 per cent this year - the highest rate in a decade, and exceeding the region's average two per cent expansion.

However, The Bahamas' GDP growth rate is forecast to fall slightly in 2019 to 2.2 per cent, dropping below a regional average that is projected to increase to 2.8 per cent.

K P Turnquest, deputy prime minister, told Tribune Business that GDP growth rates in the three to 3.5 per cent range would be ideal, but the Government had to avoid "overselling" this following a decade where economic output had increased by an average one per cent.

"We would love to see growth in the range of three to 3.5 per cent," he said, "but we understand our reality. We're already working hard to attract investment, both domestic and foreign, and we'll se some of the incentives we're putting in the upcoming Budget to stimulate domestic growth.

"We will try to be innovative in our approach to attracting foreign direct investment and growth. We'll continue to seek niche opportunities, both in the financial services sectors and industrial sectors, and the technology industry. Hopefully the tourism engine and investment planned for that sector will result in the kind of growth we need."

Mr Turnquest acknowledged that a three to 3.5 per cent growth rate would be "ideal", but added: "We don't want to be overly optimistic or oversell what's realistic. The average growth for the last ten years has been about one per cent.

"We don't want to oversell any growth projections. The IMF says 2.5 per cent and we'll go for that, and hopefully do better. We've got a lot of work to do to make that happen. That's our focus."

While crime was still "unacceptably high", Mr Turnquest said the Government was "committed to seeing a turnaround" through deploying the necessary resources and strategies to "get that under control and realise more economic potential".