The Tribune

By YOURI KEMP

Tribune Business Reporter

ykemp@tribunemedia.net

The Department of Statistics may not undertake a survey of Grand Bahama's jobless levels until May 2021, its acting director revealed yesterday.

Leona Wilson explained that a combination of post-Hurricane Dorian fall-out, with the Department's Grand Bahama office still not fully functional, and next year's national "census" were likely to prevent any Labour Force Survey being conducted on that island until then.

She also revealed that the extent of Dorian's devastation has made it impossible to conduct the November Labour Force Survey, which determines both the national unemployment rate and those for individual islands, for Grand Bahama and Abaco.

Ms Wilson said: "The Department of Statistics is in the midst of collecting data for its semi-annual Labour Force Survey during the month of December. This survey is usually conducted in November in New Providence, Grand Bahama and Abaco, but because of Hurricane Dorian it had to be delayed. Additionally, we are not able to survey the islands of Grand Bahama and Abaco at this time."

With the department's Grand Bahama office still not fully functioning, Ms Wilson added that any Labour Force survey on that island would also "be a challenge because next year we are conducting our census where we got to every single island.

"Usually, the practice in the Department of Statistics since the last 40 years has been that we don't conduct a Labour Force Survey at the same time we conduct a census," she said. "Because we only have so much resources, and all of the resources go towards conducting the census.

"Additionally, it would be challenging going back to the householder so many times. So we more than likely are not going to have a Labour Force Survey next year. The earliest may be in May 2021."

Many observers are likely to question how The Bahamas will be able to obtain accurate data on unemployment, and its breakdown by island, gender and age, as well as the number of persons who have given up looking for work, without the bi-annual Labour Force Survey.

Such data is especially critical in Hurricane Dorian's aftermath, as New Providence's workforce is likely to have swelled as a result of storm evacuees relocating and searching for work, while Grand Bahama and Abaco have both depopulated due to both the devastation and absence of economic activity.

Marlon Johnson, the Ministry of Finance's acting financial secretary, previously predicted that the national unemployment rate will rise from 9.5 percent in May 2019 to hit a peak of around 13.5 percent next year as a result of Dorian. This makes it vital that both government policymakers and the private sector gain access to speedy information on workforce trends.

Ms Wilson, meanwhile, the findings of a survey conducted by the Bahamas Shelter Cluster (BSC) which found the unemployment rate in Freeport post-Dorian was around 47 percent. She said: "I really cannot comment on that. I didn't know there was a survey done.

"The first time I heard about that was in the news. The only information I got on that was from the news. I don't know anything about the survey. I don't even know if it was survey. I don't know what the questionnaire looked like or how the study was conducted."

Acknowledging that this is the first time in the Department's history that a Labour Force Survey will not include Grand Bahama or Abaco, Ms Wilson said the major population shifts in the latter as a result of Hurricane Dorian meant it would need the latest information to develop a representative sample.

Cyprianna Winters, senior statistician in charge of conducting the Labour Force Survey, warned Bahamians about a Whatsapp voice note suggesting that persons may have been impersonating researchers from the department.

Ms Wilson said such persons are equipped with identification and markings such as a highly visible vest with the department's name on the back; a blue and black bag with the department's name engraved on it; picture identification cards signed by the director; and a tablet on which the data is being collected, in addition to a letter signed by her as the acting director of statistics.