The Tribune

EDITOR, The Tribune

It goes without saying that we should minimize the loss of life where we can with challenges like Covid-19. But we must be careful to balance what feels good, with actually doing good. Parliament’s most recent response to the Covid-19 dilemma appears to be largely based on emotions and fear, for which neither forms the best framework for developing robust policy or effective measures. We must as a society recognize the fact that there are trade-offs to every policy pursued and no one factor supersedes all others. There must be a considered balancing of sometimes competing interests and an understanding of the outcomes all the various trade-offs entail. Every decision the government makes in response to Covid-19 imposes costs in terms of time, money and lives, as well as, creating a host of new problems and issues, both in the short and long term. It is a balancing act fraught with risks, known and unknown, recognized and ignored. Knee jerk solutions almost always end with a hard kick you didn’t intend to deliver.

Take the implementation of grocery shopping time allotments by last name (a form of rationing). It seemed like an expedient move to limit the number of people visiting grocers. But it was a superficial and ineffective measure. In the first instance, the distribution of last names is not equal across the alphabet, this is especially true where populations are smaller and closely related. The result: an imbalance of people assigned to short windows of time for shopping. This increases the number of people visiting a shop during a short period of time rather than alleviating the numbers of people shopping at any given time. This constriction of available shopping time was made worse by the Government’s arbitrary reduction in grocers’ daily operating hours. If the objective was to reduce the formation of crowds, the government quite literally achieved the opposite, putting vastly more people in danger.

Likewise, the Government announced arbitrary extended closures of grocers. Not only will this definitely result in tremendous food wastage as fresh goods rot on shelves during extended shutdowns, but it will also result later in food shortages as responsible grocers will wisely decline to order and bring in food that will go to waste during unpredictable and extensive mandatory closure windows. Both of these conditions are not helpful and both negatively affect the general health of the population. However, the most egregious outcome of the grocer closures is the inducement it creates to have even more people gather to wait in long lines to buy groceries in constricted time-frames. Because food is a necessity and people must have it, this single act may in fact prove to be the very catalyst for an explosive increase in Covid-19 that the government wanted to avoid.

So what should be done? It is clear that one stage thinking won’t benefit anybody (not the public, not grocers and not the battle against Covid-19). And in fact, if the Government doesn’t get serious about taking effective measures to slow the spread of Covid-19, then the situation will quickly spiral out of control. Here is a strategy that will work to slow the spread of Covid-19, while not creating panic, riots, food shortages or economic hardship greater than is absolutely necessary.

Step 1: Return grocer operating hours to pre-Covid conditions. Ideally, ask grocers to extend their operating hours during this crisis even more to at least 7 am until 9 pm, 7 days a week.

Step 2: Mandate and then support all grocers with implementation of Point of Sale plastic barriers, PPE (gloves/masks) for working staff (especially cashiers), hand sanitizer at each check out and each store entrance, 100% sanitization of all shopping carts and baskets after each customer use, termination of packing services in store. To be in place prior to re-opening to the public.

Step 3: Remove time allotments for grocery shopping, but strictly limit the number of persons in store based on the facilities overall square footage, with the social distancing queue markers in place. With the extended shopping hours the restriction on number of shoppers in store at any given time can easily service the general public without attracting large crowds. People will naturally avoid crowding and queuing when they know they can come back at other times when queues are shorter or non-existent. For any customer entering a grocery store have a Greeter (wearing PPE) who will ensure each customer immediately uses hand sanitizer upon entry.

Step 4: Whether or not open shopping is allowed or if shopping allotment is maintained based on last name, assign Saturday and Sunday as a shopping day for ONLY those segments of society that are the most potent asymptomatic Covid-19 vectors, including medical staff, bank tellers, police, army, grocery employees, gas attendants and any other position(s) construed as high risk given the number of people they come into contact with on a daily basis. This will contain the risk posed by “Super Spreaders”, as the drastically lower numbers of people in grocery stores on Saturday and Sunday will minimize the chance of spread to other shoppers. Likewise those people designated as being able to shop on Saturday/Sunday, will be barred from shopping during the weekdays.

Step 5: As more PPE (masks, gloves) becomes available exceeding the needs of the primary services, grocery cashiers, gas attendants, etc, re-direct the excess to grocery stores first, then banks and gas stations, for distribution to each visiting customer entering the facility. This will enhance the precautionary measures taken on the employee side, by extending them to the customer side.

With this plan in place the government can then direct some of its focus on these concrete initiatives that will garner positive results by reducing actual systemic risk.

1. Harden the vector interfaces (install grocery plastic barriers, enhanced sanitization protocols).

2. Spread the hours of operation of grocers and assign shopping days by Essential service description (more hours open, means less shopper density, high risk shoppers limited to Saturday/Sunday)

3. Procure mass quantities of PPE for allotment as outlined above (roll out the PPE in stages depending on the amount of PPE available – first to medical staff, then grocery cashiers, then police/army, and so on),

4. Enhance testing of the High Risk category of essential personnel who come into contact with large numbers of the public (medical staff, police, grocery cashiers, gas attendants, army and so on).

5. Immediately remove folks working in the Essential industries who are found to be positive for Covid-19 so that they don’t act as Super Spreaders.

6. Move to general PPE distribution at store level upon entry.

If this course of action is taken, the Bahamas will be better off. Fewer people will gather at any one time. Food shortages will be avoided. Public nutrition will be maintained. Food inflation will be avoided. Panic and rioting will be minimized. Business on the grocery side can continue as normal. Other essential sectors that have a high number of public contact points will receive greater focus and improved disease mitigation protocols. As well, we will have an effective and sustainable action plan implemented with definable targets and verifiable outcomes. As it stands today we are flying blind, we have action, but it is not sustainable, sensible or effective. If it feels like we are tumbling down the mountain in the middle of the night and at any moment will hit a tree, it is because this is exactly what is happening. Time for change. Time to actually do good, not just feel good about having done something.

ANONYMOUS

Nassau,

April 7, 2020.