The Tribune

The COVID-19 pandemic’s jolt to speed-up digitisation, and the growth of online e-commerce activity, will ensure they both have a role in economic recovery, a Bahamian financial analyst believes.

Brian Jones, Leno’s managing director of wealth solutions, said that while the COVID-19 shutdown is a voluntary and temporary halt for the economy, it demonstrates how critical operating in an environment other than “person-to-person” can be.

Mr Jones, who stopped short of describing the sudden recognition of how important e-commerce and alternative payment solutions have become as a silver lining amid temporary business closures and rising unemployment, said there is reason for optimism moving forward.

“While there is tremendous cause for concern, this was a voluntary economic shutdown caused by a temporary health crisis,” said Mr Jones. “But it is just that; temporary. These are unprecedented times, but folks will get back to business. While COVID-19 has seemingly brought most things to a halt, it will also jump start many new initiatives out of the disruption we are currently facing.”

Mr Jones projected a series of changes, many of them altering a Bahamian economic model that is so heavily dependent upon tourism. Among the most promising overall changes, he argued, is speeding up digitisation so that commerce does not stop because a door is closed.

“The Bahamas, like many other countries around the world, must accelerate our national digitisation agenda, which can allow us to push the pedal and move with speed when global economic conditions return to normal. The resiliency of the economies in countries such as Estonia are proving that throughout this crisis, digitisation is more crucial now than ever,” said Mr Jones.

“New Fintech and e-commerce businesses, along with the coming national launch of the Sand Dollar, provide platforms and tools for the economy to function more efficiently as all sorts of business functions and activities can be carried out in a completely virtual environmen.”

Mr Jones also predicted an increased focus on building infrastructure, ranging from physical plants including hospitals and other medical facilities to creating secure platforms for trade and the ease of doing business.

He believes COVID-19, like no other crisis before it, has demonstrated the need for greater food security, local production of essential goods and parallel streams for conducting commerce. Maintaining health insurance will assume a more prominent role, and those who can afford it may resume saving for “a rainy-day fund.”

The Government, Mr Jones added, will need to work more closely than ever with the private sector to ensure funds are available for jump-starting the economy and acting as a shock absorber. He foresees more attention on fixing the skills gap between available jobs and labour, and believes this is an ideal time to look at an ongoing virtual education programme.

“We see from looking at history, this is not the first time something like this has happened, and it’s also likely that it will not be the last,” Mr Jones added. “Growth lies in ingenuity, and we will also see many start-ups emerge to solve some of the new problems that have arisen due to the crisis. Several of the top unicorn companies in the world today were started during the last major economic downturn over one decade ago.”

Sectors likely to hold their own over the long-term, even if there is a temporary halt, said Mr Jones, are prime residential real estate in The Bahamas; precious metals including gold and silver; biotechnology; pharmaceuticals; and certain medical companies and digital asset and payment solutions.