The Tribune

ACTIVTRADES WEEKLY

By Ricardo Evangelista

www.activtrades.bs

Thucydides was one of the greatest Greek historians of the classical era. He wrote The History of the Peloponnesian War, an eight-volume treaty recounting the conflict between Athens and Sparta, in the 5th Century BC. Sparta, the dominating power at the time, felt threatened by the rise of Athens, which led to growing disagreement and ended up in an all-out war which was eventually won by the Spartans.

More recently, in 2018, the author Graham T Allison published a book called Destined for War, in which he coined the expression “Thucydides Trap”, referring to the theory that when the established power is threatened by an emerging competitor, war is almost always the result. The author scanned the last 500 years and found 16 such situations, with only three not ending in war. Examples include the rise of Germany during the late 19th and early 20th century, challenging the, then, supremacy of the United Kingdom and culminating in World War 1.

Interestingly, in these scenarios, armed conflict tends to be triggered by a third country (as was the case in WW1).

In our age, the United States of America are indisputably the established power and China the up-and-coming rival. The past 100 years have, in many ways, been the American century, during which the US were the main architect and guardian of the International order; the impact of China’s rise is seen by many in Washington as a threat to that supremacy.

In 1948, nine out of every ten Chinese citizens lived in extreme poverty, it was then that, under the leadership of Mao Zedong, China started a march that brought it to where it is today.

In 2020 more than 99 percent of the country’s population live above the line marking extreme deprivation, in what is surely one of the greatest ever achievements in governing. However, the Asian giant’s plans for further advancement haven’t yet reached an end; by 2035 Beijing aims to be the leader in all technologies and, by 2049, to be the dominant global power, in every field, including militarily.

One can understand how to many in Washington this represents an assault on American hegemony.

The Sino-American issue is the most important challenge of our time. Will this “Thucydides Trap” end in armed conflict or, like the “cold war” between the USA and the USSR, the international order will allow for a “peaceful” coexistence?

After World War 2, a strong set of international institutions was put in place, including the United Nations, World Bank and NATO. Today, unfortunately, many of these bodies appear tired and increasingly irrelevant. Avoiding the complete decoupling of the two economies, that could lead to the polarisation of global power and two rivals with their backs turned to each other, requires the establishment of a new world order based on co-operation and focused on solving common challenges like climate change, income inequality, migration and pandemics.

As we follow the footsteps of history, the words of George Santayana come to mind: those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.