The Tribune

By YOURI KEMP

Tribune Business Reporter

ykemp@tribunemedia.net

Food store retailers yesterday said they expect sales to drop by 20 percent between now and September.

Atwell Ferguson, Golden Gates Supermarket's general manager, told Tribune Business: "Sales have dropped for sure since the pandemic, and basically things are back to normal.

"I think we are on the level for last year right now. It's like it's going down, and we are down by about 20 percent. By the way things look, I think it will go down another 20 percent between now and September."

Cyril Carey, general manager of Kenneth's Food store on Prince Charles Drive, said: "It's still been pretty good. I can't say off-hand how things look compared to last year, I don't have those figures in my head.

"Hearing what's going on, things may drop off, but I'm hoping that it's not going to happen. Not as easy as that."

Asked to estimate his sales forecast in the short-term, Mr Carey said: "I know a lot of people are out of work, and a lot of them are going back to work next week, so I really can't comment on what to expect."

Shoshana Davis, general manager of Lucky Food Store on Market Street, said: "For the most part sales did slow down. The panic buying was a boost in sales, but right now there are lulls.

"We do see an increase in the evenings, particularly closer to closing time. But for the most part it is pretty much back to normal, where you have lulls in the middle of the day. But I don't anticipate sales to dip in the foreseeable future for my location."

Their comments came after Rupert Roberts, Super Value's president, revealed he is bracing for a "below normal" sales decline as the post-COVID lockdown reality bites.

He added that the supermarket chain is preparing for "a tapering off" in groceries demand that could happen as early as this week as high unemployment and reduced incomes as a result of the economic lockdown shrink consumer spending.

"There hasn't been any major tapering off yet," Mr Roberts said, "but we know that as the hotels open the staff will be eating in the hotels, and as the restaurants people will be eating out instead of at home. We expect a drop-off. First, it'll go back to normal and then go below normal.

"The lack of money, we expect to encounter that in weeks to come. It may be sudden rather than a gradual drop-off. The sudden may start this week. I don't know. There's going to be a shortage of money to shop, and people will want to be in by dark. It hasn't happened yet, but we all now it's going to happen. It may have started this week, and we really don't know. I haven't looked.

"If we start falling ten percent below last year we'll be in trouble. Our expectation is that it will not go below ten percent below last year before we catch ourselves, tourism kicks back in and the economy catches itself. It's wait, watch and see."

That was echoed by one of Super Value's major competitors, BISX-listed AML Foods, which revealed that it, too, is expecting top-line volumes to start declining by the end of its 2021 first quarter.

That period ends on July 31, meaning that the fall-off is likely to be occurring now. The Solomon's and Cost Right owner, unveiling its full-year and fourth quarter results for the period to end-April 2020, also exposed the boost that COVID-19 panic buying and stocking up gave to its top-line and those of other food stores as those figures also contained the pandemic's first six weeks.

AML Foods saw its fourth quarter sales increase by more than $5.7m or 13.3 percent year-over-year, jumping from $43.66m in the same period in 2019 to $49.382m during the three months to end-April 2020.

Franklyn Butler, AML Foods' chairman, told shareholders: "The COVID-19 pandemic has had a positive impact on sales for the quarter. However, the expectation is that with increased unemployment and the prolonged closure of the tourism industry, sales volumes will begin to decline by the end of the 2021 first quarter.

"Increased sales during the quarter were single-handedly from our food distribution segment... Consumer purchasing behaviours shifted during the quarter, and sales of higher margin departments such as deli and clothing were down, negatively impacting our gross margin dollars. During the quarter, our gross margin percentage dropped to 30.3 percent from 31.8 percent."