The Tribune

By DENISE MAYCOCK

Tribune Freeport Reporter

dmaycock@tribunemedia.net

A STORM surge model project for inundation mapping over The Bahamas will start in 2021 and will be developed over two years by the National Hurricane Centre, it was revealed yesterday at the Sustainable Grand Bahama Conference.

Kenneth Graham, National Hurricane Centre Director for NOAA's National Weather Service (NWS), said it is the first time the project is being announced, and that the model will allow for storm surge watches to be issued for the Bahamas by 2023/2024.

He said it is very critical because storm surge is the "leading" cause of deaths associated with hurricanes and tropical systems.

"I wanted to announce for The Bahamas today we will start the project in 2021 and hope to be done in 2023," he told persons gathered at the Pelican Bay Resort for the three-day conference hosted by the University of the Bahamas North.

"We will have storm surge capability inundation and the ability to issue storm surge watch for The Bahamas. The vision is to go all way across the entire region. It is really important because it is the leading cause of fatalities.

"So, this model will allow us to see some inundation mapping over The Bahamas in a hurricane. It will take us years to get there, but I want to let everybody know that we are working on that."

Last September, The Bahamas recorded the highest ever storm surge casualty during Hurricane Dorian, particularly in Grand Bahama and Abaco. The official hurricane death toll is 74.

Mr Graham has been with the NHC for some 26 years and has gained experience during some of the most catastrophic storms, including Hurricane Katrina and Floyd which triggered the largest storm evacuation of some 2.6 million people in US history.

He indicated that evidence supports that water is a more deadly factor than heavy wind. "From 2012 back to 1963, water is the result of 90 percent of the fatalities, we have the evidence," he added.

In light of this, the NHC had undertaken and completed an extensive storm surge model project of the entire US coastline.

According to Mr Graham, it has taken 10 years for them to get to the point where they can issue storm surge watches and warning and inundation mapping in the US.

He noted that extensive work is required, which includes understanding the symmetry, the depth of the water, the land underneath, and the elevation.

"We just finished storm surge watch and warnings in the US with inundation mapping. We have only been doing it for a year. For Puerto Rico we got it done for the 2019 season and Southern California for this season - this is the first place I told anybody."

They are now are expanding the project to other areas. They have a pilot project in the Dominican Republic and are looking at Haiti, and the Yucatan.

Mr Graham said they will start building the model for the Bahamas in 2021. "The model itself takes a long time and it is very complicated - it took us 10 years to do the US coastline. So, we are hoping by 2023, or at least by the hurricane season 2024, we will have that complete."

He explained that it will provide information about how high the storm surge could be and what areas are going to flood before the storm makes landfall.

"To be able to do that days in advance allows for a lot of preparation. It is interesting because storm surge is so dependent on the size and speed of the storm. It's not just wind, it is the forward speed of the storm.

"This model will take 1,000 different scenarios, and build them in so no matter if that hurricane turns a little to the left or right, if it gets bigger or smaller, or slows down a bit, the model is not going to change. That is why it is so important that people see the value and you can plan on those values."

The conference ends on March 7.