The Tribune

With CHARLIE HARPER

YOU may revere him. You may revile him. You may just yearn for his disappearance from American public life. But to deny that ex-President Donald Trump was uncannily wise at anticipating emotionally-charged socio-political trends in the thinking of voters in the US is to overlook an important aspect of recent American political life.

He may have just scored another bulls-eye. More about that in a moment.

Trump had a very public political apprenticeship. He was for many of his New York City socialite years a Democrat, pro-choice and a gun control advocate. All of these positions changed when he identified subliminal American resistance to a newly-elected black President and a yearning for the imposition of more conservative, even libertarian values.

He realised his clearest path to power was via the Republican Party. And as his candidacy for President began to gather momentum in 2015, he foresaw the forces at work in Britain that led in June 2016 to the dramatic “Brexit” vote that led to the UK’s departure from the European Union. He correctly judged that the isolationism and nationalism at work in the Brexit vote were also widely present in the American electorate.

Trump masterfully identified weaknesses in his Republican primary opponents in 2016 and emphasised them in campaign speeches and debates. Remember “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz? How about “Little Marco” Rubio? Tall, imposing and full of swagger, Trump dispatched over a dozen 2016 challengers. In the general election, Trump recognized voters in the US were weary of family political dynasties, from the Kennedys and Rockefellers to the Bushes and Clintons. He was able to overcome the reluctance of voters who focused on the content of his diatribes by winning over those who concentrated on their emotional content.

Trump’s 2016 triumph unleashed and legitimised long-suppressed stirrings in the American body politic. There’s little public evidence that he actually cared about most issues like Second Amendment gun rights or a woman’s freedom of choice to make the wrenching choice to abort a pregnancy. But he was a clever opportunist and largely delivered on campaign promises in such areas of contentious social policy.

Trump also foresaw, fatefully, that his only really dangerous opponent in his 2020 re-election bid would be Joe Biden. Who is to say Trump’s repeated public declarations of this belief did not contribute to the startling transformation of Biden’s flagging campaign in March 2020 into the powerful, irresistible juggernaut that carried “Sleepy Joe” to the Democratic nomination and then to the White House.

Now Trump has done it again. When the activist conservative justices who now control the US Supreme Court delivered their widely-anticipated but much-dreaded decision overturning federal protection for abortion rights in the US and handing management of the issue back to the states, they may have given the Democrats hope for the coming November elections. Before the court’s decision, it was frankly difficult to see the Dems not at least losing control of the US House of Representatives and even more state legislatures and governorships around the country. Maintaining control of the Senate was no sure thing either.

After a draft copy of the court’s decision on Roe v Wade was leaked to the press on May 2, Trump reportedly began telling friends and advisers that it would certainly alienate suburban women, a group whose support undeniably helped to elect Biden two years ago. Trump also told allies this defection from his 2016 successful coalition would lead to a backlash against Republicans in the November midterm elections, and seriously imperil their expected triumph.

A Gallup survey this month revealed the share of Americans identifying as “pro-choice” had jumped to 55 percent after hovering between 45 percent and 50 percent for a decade. That sentiment was “the highest Gallup has measured since 1995, while the 39 percent who identified as ‘pro-life’ was “the lowest since 1996,” the famed polling firm reported.

Furthermore, a May survey conducted for CNN found that 66 percent of the people questioned said they believed Roe v Wade should not be overturned. Even allowing for the hypocritical prevarications of politicians like Senator Susan Collins of Maine and her dubious claims about having been misled by Justices Gorsuch and Cavanagh during pre-confirmation meetings, it does seem that a distinct majority of American women are outraged by the Supreme Court action.

And, of course, everyone in politics is trying to raise money on passions surrounding the issue. Here is but a brief sample:

From House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi: “This is our once-in-a-lifetime shot to build the biggest Democratic Majorities in HISTORY -- but only if I launch an immediate response. I need an OVERWHELMING surge of support to thwart their plans and make sure Republicans NEVER hold power again. I will do everything I can to stop Republicans from stripping women across the nation of their fundamental reproductive rights. But I can’t do this without you, not when Republicans are flushed with $90 MILLION to destroy our Majorities. Is there any way I could count on you to confirm your 2022 Democratic Membership with $15 to help me launch my response?“

Here’s part of a fundraising missive from the Florida Christian Family Coalition, based in Miami: “Today’s decision is almost 50 years in the making. It’s an incredible victory for life and a great day in American history. All of us in the pro-life movement have been working and praying for this moment for nearly half a century. Elections have consequences, and the 2016 presidential election results in Florida helped elect President Trump, which made the difference in the appointment of three pro-life justices. The Supreme Court has righted a terrible wrong by overturning the most egregious example of judicial overreach in the nation’s history,” said Christian Family Coalition (CFC) Florida Founder and Executive Director Anthony Verdugo.”

And finally, here are some excerpts from Texas gubernatorial candidate Beto O’Rourke, who’s trying to unseat hard-right incumbent Greg Abbot: “Just two days ago, the Supreme Court stripped women of the right to an abortion. In Texas, Governor Abbott already has an automatic trigger law in place that will now be able to outlaw abortion at any point with no exception for rape or incest.

“Our only option moving forward is to elect Beto as the next governor of Texas. We have to get really serious about political power and what it’s going to take to win this race.

“We set a goal of raising $4,000,000 by the end of this month. It’s ambitious but it matches the urgent moment we’re in right now. Every single dollar we raise helps us reach more voters across all 254 counties so we can win this race and protect reproductive freedom for Texas women.”

The Democrats are latching onto the abortion rights issue as their best hope to cling to power in Washington and overcome the significant disadvantages facing Biden and the national Democratic party. Those issues continue to include persistent inflation epitomised by stubbornly high gasoline prices at the pump; rising gun violence across the country and heightened sensational media coverage of that violence, and a general sense that Biden seems to act old enough, often enough, to make people genuinely wonder about his capabilities to continue to lead the country.

The Democrats are still facing long odds to avoid a November rout. But as he has done before, Donald Trump could be pointing the way.

Just when you thought there was light ahead . . .

While most of the nation’s legal attention is focused on Roe v Wade, the highest US court has been handing down other decisions that appear to further blur the once-clear lines of separation of church and state that were famously enunciated by Thomas Jefferson in 1802. In the ensuing 220 years, US courts have generally ruled that Jefferson’s reference to the “establishment clause” of the First Amendment to the American constitution basically enshrined the separation of church and state.

The present conservative supermajority on the Supreme Court is now challenging that concept, and some politicians are in strong support. Radical-right congresswoman Lauren Boebert of Colorado recently proclaimed that “the church is supposed to direct the government. The government is not supposed to direct the church.”

For some, the door to American theocracy is open wider than ever. And no one knows what will now pass through that door.