The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

Bahamian stopover arrivals rebounded to 90 percent of pre-COVID levels for July as the tourism recovery maintained its momentum by attracting some 3.677m visitors during the first seven months of 2022.

The Central Bank, in its report on August’s monthly economic developments that was released yesterday, added that total foreign departures via Lynden Pindling International Airport (LPIA) rose by 30 percent year-over-year for that month as tourism continued to revive following the global pandemic.

“Official data provided by the Ministry of Tourism showed that total visitor arrivals by first port of entry expanded to 678,273 in July from 183,580 visitors in the corresponding period of 2021,” the Central Bank said. “Leading this outturn, the dominant sea traffic advanced to 520,511 from just 49,651 visitors in the previous year. In addition, air traffic increased to 157,762 from 133,929 in the prior year, representing 89.7 percent of the volumes registered in 2019.

“Disaggregated by major port of entry, total arrivals to New Providence more than doubled to 315,244 visitors in July from 118,797 in the comparative period of 2021. Contributing to this development, the air and sea segments both advanced to 121,032 and 194,212 visitors, respectively.

“Similarly, traffic to the Family Islands rose to 319,703 from 53,145 a year earlier, as respective air and sea passengers measured 32,941 and 286,762. Further, foreign arrivals to Grand Bahama amounted to 43,326 vis-à-vis 11,638 in the prior year, attributed to gains in the air and sea components of 3,789 and 39,537, respectively.”

Turning to the performance over the first seven months of 2022, the Central Bank added: “On a year-to-date basis, total arrivals recovered to 3.677m compared to just 597,233 in the comparative 2021 period, when a 65.5 percent contraction was registered.

“Supporting this outcome, air arrivals rose to 892,738 passengers, relative to the 34.6 percent expansion in the preceding year, reflecting gains in all major markets. Further, sea arrivals increased to 2.784m visitors, a turnaround from a 92.2 percent decline in 2021.”

The regulator continued: “More recent data provided by the Nassau Airport Development Company (NAD) indicated that for the month of August, total departures - net of domestic passengers - grew to 132,347 from 101,530 in the corresponding month of 2021. Specifically, US departures rose to 116,335 from 94,166 in the previous year, while non-US departures advanced to 16,012 from 7,364 in the preceding year.

“On a year-to-date basis, total outbound traffic expanded to 908,199 from 475,317 passengers in the prior year, extending the 24 percent recovery a year earlier. Reflecting this outturn, US departures rose to 787,527 visitors following a 41.1 percent increase in the corresponding 2021 period. Similarly, non-US departures rebounded to 120,672, a switch from a 63.4 percent decline in 2021.

“In the short-term vacation rental market, data provided by AirDNA for August revealed positive trends. In particular, total room nights sold advanced to 140,512 from 93,635 in the corresponding 2021 period. Reflective of this outturn, the occupancy rates for both entire place and hotel comparable listings increased to 55.1 percent and 51.9 percent, respectively, from 49.9 percent and 46.5 percent in the prior year.

“Further, price indicators showed that year-over-year, the average daily room rate (ADR) for entire place listings rose by 4.6 percent to $506.85, while hotel comparable listings firmed by 2.4 percent to $178.90.” As a result, the Central Bank’s economic outlook was little changed from prior months, with the external reserves forecast to remain healthy despite a $63.3m decline in August to $3.268bn.

The prior year had been boosted by the receipt of $140.3m in special drawing rights (SDRs) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the Central Bank added: “Notwithstanding some anticipated seasonal drawdowns over the remainder of the 2022, external reserve balances are forecasted to remain robust, supported by expected foreign currency inflows from tourism and other net private sector receipts, thus ending the year above international benchmarks.

“Consequently, external balances are poised to remain more than adequate to sustain the Bahamian dollar currency peg...... In the labour market, the unemployment rate, while declining, is projected to remain above pre-pandemic levels.

“Job gains are likely to be concentrated in the construction sector and the full rehiring of tourism sector employees. As it relates to prices, inflation is forecasted to stay elevated, underpinned by the rise in international oil prices, higher costs for other imported goods and supply chain shortages, associated with geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe.”

The Central Bank said “new and ongoing foreign investment-led projects, along with post-hurricane reconstruction works, are anticipated to provide impetus to the construction sector, and by extension economic growth” to help counter the downside risks of higher inflation and increases in global interest rates as a consequence.