The Tribune

With CHARLIE HARPER

YESTERDAY’S headlines reported that Russian military jets damaged an American spy drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday. Two words immediately came to mind: casus belli. That’s Latin for “cause or justification for war”.

The American unmanned drone was an MQ-9 Reaper that looks like the powerful stealth killer that it is. The aircraft is powered by a 950-horsepower engine, with a maximum speed of about 300mph and a cruising speed of 170–200mph.

With a 66ft wingspan and a maximum payload of 3,800 pounds, the MQ-9 can be armed with a variety of weaponry, including missiles ominously named ‘Hellfire’ and 500lb bombs. The MQ-9 can stay aloft for 30 hours when conducting purely intelligence missions, which drops to 23 hours if it is carrying a full weapons load. The Reaper has a range of 1,150 miles and an operational altitude of 50,000ft.

This “Reaper” drone is clearly capable of both military intelligence and operational missions. The US has been deploying them for 15 years in various roles. In response to Tuesday’s incident, US officials said the incident was “part of a pattern of dangerous actions by Russian pilots during encounters with American and allied aircraft in international airspace”.

The officials warned that “provocations of this type could lead to miscalculations and unintended escalation” between Russia and the West.

The US and its allies are edging ever closer to a situation where an incident like Tuesday’s one becomes a justification for escalation if not declared war. Such a situation might conjure memories of the Korean War that was fought three-quarters of a century ago.

The Korean War of 1950-53 was sparked when North Korea pushed across its 38th parallel boundary with South Korea and tried to conquer the south. It is officially called the Korean “conflict”, since there was never a formal declaration of war by the UN forces led by the US against North Korea and its Russian and Chinese patrons. (The United Nations, under whose aegis the war was fought by the Americans and their allies, is proscribed by its charter from declaring war. Hence the use of “conflict”).

Whether you call it a war or not, 36,000 American troops died and 2.5 million civilians were killed.

The result of the Korean War was the present stalemate, after North Korean, Russian and Chinese forces were finally pushed back to the pre-invasion border.

Sound familiar?

‘NOTHING LEFT TO LOSE’ BEHIND MAGA AND RUSSIA SUPPORT?

RUTH and Alison are sisters. They have both spent much of their time in the US, but each has also lived in The Bahamas. Like many sisters, they have had their ups and downs with each other over the five-plus decades of their successful lives. While they say they mostly bond over and chat about day-to-day issues, they’re also interested in more weighty issues of the day.

Sometimes they get deep into those issues, and this conversation was one of those occasions.

“Hey, Ruthie, remember how we were talking the other day about the haves and the have nots of the world?”

“Sure, Ali. What about it?”

“Well, I have an idea. Let’s see what you think.”

Alison took a sip of her tea, and began. “I was thinking about what you said the other day, when you mentioned that an awful lot of MAGA Republicans and Trump supporters continue to express allegiance to the former president. This comes in the face of the January 6 riot at the US capitol, Trump’s real legal vulnerability on several fronts, and the fact that he did actually lose the 2020 election and probably subverted the Republicans’ chances at major legislative gains last year.”

“Yeah, I’ve heard that before,” Ruth replied. “Whatcha got that’s new?”

“Give me another minute to speak,” her sister said. “We have also discussed how a surprising number of third-world countries have refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, right?”

“Yesss, Ali. Get to the point.”

“Hey! OK, listen. Here’s my idea. It doesn’t make sense to either of us that MAGA Republicans would stick with Trump, who’s already lost to Biden and would do so again. It doesn’t make sense that other countries would refuse to condemn an outright, brazen, unprovoked invasion. Except for one thing.

“That thing is this: Neither the Trump die-hards nor the third-worlders may feel they have anything further to lose at this point. For the MAGAers, they already feel the current “system” in the US is stacked against them. They see educational opportunities, jobs and cultural trends all moving away from them. For them, ‘woke’ imperatives lead Democrats and many Republicans to tilt the scale in favour of immigrants, minorities, even women!

“Trump, flawed as he doubtless is, nevertheless speaks to them and for them. The forces of globalisation, the financial and other influence of Jews in the society, suspicious-looking immigrants, the coddling of ‘Antifa mobs’: these things all rankle, and lead to a feeling of hopelessness. It erodes their faith in the American dream. Things aren’t fair or based on merit any more. What do they have to lose by supporting people who have shown a willingness to burn the house down to change things?”

Alison paused, expecting her older sister to reply sarcastically. But Ruth just seemed lost in thought. “Go on,” she said finally.

“OK. These countries that won’t condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: China, North Korea, Iran. I get that. They are seeking tactical and maybe even strategic advantages in such a policy, even though they all border Russia or, like Iran, almost do. And as neighbours, they could be next if Putin succeeds in Ukraine. But India was also hesitant to condemn Russia at first. Turkey and Hungary may have practical as well as ideological reasons for their reserve on this issue.

“But what about African nations,” Ruth continued. “Remember earlier this month, that resolution at the United Nations condemning the Russians?” She put on her reading glasses. “Here’s what the resolution said: ‘We deplore in the strongest terms the aggression by the Russian Federation against Ukraine; demand that the Russian Federation immediately cease its use of force against Ukraine and to refrain from any further unlawful threat or use of force against any Member State, and demand that the Russian Federation immediately, completely and unconditionally withdraw all of its military forces from the territory of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders’.”

Alison said “What does that have to do with Africa?”

Ruth smiled. “Did you know that only 28 out of the 54 African countries represented in the UN voted in favour of the resolution? Overall, 81 percent of non- African member countries voted in favour of the resolution. And furthermore, it says here that of the 35 countries that voted to abstain, 17 were African — including Algeria, Angola, and South Africa. Eight other African countries, including Cameroon, Ethiopia, and Morocco, did not submit a vote. What do you think of that, Ali?”

“So let me get this straight,” her sister replied. “You think that half of the African countries did not support a fairly straightforward UN resolution because they feel they have nothing to lose?”

“Well,” Ruth replied, “I have been reading that many Africans feel that the industrialized Western world only pays attention to them when a UN vote or something is needed. On issues like climate change, for instance, the big economies contribute most of the carbon to the atmosphere, and then they get together and try to squeeze the smaller nations.

“And what about these various financial action task forces in Washington, London, Brussels and elsewhere in Europe? You’re always complaining that they are such hypocrites, imposing black lists and warnings on smaller nations like The Bahamas while profiting themselves from notorious money laundering sites in the Caribbean and elsewhere.”

“True enough,” said Alison. “You are saying that lots of African nations feel as left behind as the MAGA Republicans? That they feel they might just as well burn down the international order because the current one isn’t benefiting them enough?”

“Well,” Ruth replied. “It’s something to think about, isn’t it? And what if we weren’t so dependent on American tourism and trade? How would our perspective be any different than the Africans’?”

“You might have something there, little sister,” said Alison. “Now then, I’m hungry. Let’s get lunch.”