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‘Make the switch’: 2.6% growth below forecasts

THE Bahamas must “make the switch” to focus on medium to long-term economic goals after it was revealed yesterday that 2023’s 2.6 percent real GDP growth came in below expectations.

‘Just have to trust’ gov’t over deficit

BAHAMIANS “just have to trust” the Government’s assertion that the public finances are still on track to meet their full-year targets despite the early outturn, a governance reformer says.

Gov’ts $131m deficit goal ‘already out the window’

The Government’s projected $131m deficit for the current fiscal year is “already out the window” given the performance for the first four months, a financial analyst asserted yesterday.

HUBERT EDWARDS: The Bahamas performance for 2023 and outlook for 2024

It is beyond doubt that the reported performance of the country for the last fiscal, 2022-23, has been noteworthy. Following two years of deep decline, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and an intervening “bounce back” year, 2023 has seen positive economic performance for the country but unfortunately lacking in sufficient potency to seriously start to change our fortunes.

Don’t leave fiscal change until ‘things getting dicey’

The Bahamas must not leave the need for any fiscal adjustments to the stage where “things get a bit dicey”, a governance reformer advocated yesterday in backing the IDB.

No ‘rush of blood’ on corporate income tax

The Bahamas was yesterday urged “not to have a rush of blood” in moving too swiftly on corporate income tax as the Government inches towards issuing a ‘white paper’ on the subject.

Rating agencies set ‘true north’ on Bahamas reform

International credit rating agencies have set “almost a true north” for The Bahamas to reach when it comes to key economic and fiscal reforms, a governance reformer argued yesterday.

‘Don’t get tied down’ to 50% debt-to-GDP goal

The Bahamas must move away from its 50 percent debt-to-GDP target and instead prioritise achieving economic growth rates “north of 3.5 percent” to get back on track, a governance reformer is arguing.

Inflation trend ‘positive’ as rate shows minimal change

THE trend for inflation has been hailed as "positive" by a campaigner for good governance.

‘Get fiscal house in order’ before $2.3bn debt repay

The Government has a narrow window to “get its fiscal house in order” and refinance $2.36bn in external bonds maturing over an eight-year period without challenges, a governance reformer warned yesterday.

Inflation’s high but ‘not as frightening’

Inflation “may not be as frightening as it was a year to 18 months ago”, a governance reformer argued yesterday, despite food and beverage costs rising by almost 13 percent during the year to April 2023.

Economy stabilisation after pandemic ‘a huge positive’

The economy has stabilised “significantly” since the COVID-19 pandemic, a governance reformer said.

HUBERT EDWARDS – Reform Series: ‘Immigration’

Immigration reform stands as an urgent imperative for The Bahamas, a nation grappling with the complex challenges presented by both legal and illegal immigration. With a firm resolve, it is essential to address the pressing issues arising from the influx of undocumented migrants, particularly from neighboring countries like Haiti.

HUBERT EDWARDS: Moving The Bahamas from ‘good’ to ‘great’ at 50 years

Some observers refer to The Bahamas as the “greatest little country in the world”. Others have used variations on this theme. An objective and honest assessment, taking into account all the circumstances facing The Bahamas, should readily lead to a conclusion that this is largely an aspirational statement. However, I believe there is no reason why this need remain so. From an economic and social development perspective, I am convinced The Bahamas has had, and continues to have, the potential to more significantly outpace others in the Caribbean and match much larger countries around the world stride for stride.

Bahamas ‘not tapped out’: FDI inflows at $1.3bn high

The Bahamas is “nowhere near to tapping out” its ability to attract greater foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, it was argued yesterday, after these increased by 6 percent to near-$1.3bn in 2022.

Bahamas can’t escape making hard decisions

In his second and final article, Hubert Edwards says the country cannot ignore warning signs despite there being cause for cautious optimism

My first article encompassed an assessment of the opening Budget communication by the Prime Minister, arguing that the numbers are positive but necessarily rest on confirmation of the 2022-2023 fiscal year's last quarter performance. It also went beyond the numbers to look at the issues which hold significance for the fiscal year ahead. This article continues with a consideration of emerging themes.

HUBERT EDWARDS: Bahamas can’t afford for fiscal forecast miss

The Davis administration has delivered a Budget which, while leaving room for discussion and debate on many fronts, gives numbers which are very positive and welcoming news from a fiscal and debt management perspective. The projections suggest that The Bahamas is on the path to a turnaround in its fortunes, providing international and domestic investors with a level of certainty that would not have been anticipated two years ago. But every aspect of this turns on what the final outturn of the 2022-23 fiscal year will be.

Forecast 78% deficit slash 'significant ask'

Achieving current projections of a 78 percent year-over-year cut in the Government's fiscal deficit will be "a significant ask" based on existing trends, a governance reformer warned ahead of today's 2023-2024 Budget.

Capitalise on improved 2023 GDP growth to avoid 'bother'

The Bahamas was yesterday urged to "capitalise on the momentum" created by the IMF's increased 2023 economic growth projections otherwise it could face "bother" in the medium to long-term.

Pre-COVID ‘comeback’ still $3bn off GDP target

The Bahamas must focus on “how we grow from here” because returning to pre-COVID’s $13bn economic output is “not sufficient to take the ship of state forward”, a governance reformer argued yesterday.

HUBERT EDWARDS: Create environment private sector ‘can sink teeth into’

There are two important points in time to reflect on. First, the 2022 Fiscal Strategy Report (FSR) emerged after the half-way point of the current fiscal year.

Positive but cautious over COVID recovery

Based on reports to-date, The Bahamas’ economic recovery, performance and fiscal consolidation is trending well. While largely driven by the post-COVID recovery, the current administration is to be commended for marshalling the improvement. It appears to be getting a number of things right, especially in the tourism and investment portfolio led by deputy prime minister, Chester Cooper.

‘Wary’ over deficit rise, $76m spend increase

Bahamians should be “wary” but not alarmed after the Government yesterday revealed a modest $11.4m increase to its forecast 2022-2023 fiscal deficit along with a similar-sized capital spending cut-back.

Fiscal Strategy provokes ‘credibility’ and ‘love’ mix

The Government’s latest fiscal forecasts yesterday provoked contrasting reaction, with a governance reformer saying he “truly loves” the growth focus but the Opposition’s finance spokesman pointing to “credibility problems”.

Reformer predicts 'great year' for economy

The New Year is expected to “crystalise the reconsolidation of the economy", says a governance reformer as 2023 foretells a year of “great performance” for the economy.

S&P’s ‘shot in the arm’ exposes growth fears

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has given The Bahamas “a shot in the arm” while further exposing that “additional taxation” will almost certainly be needed to hit the Government’s fiscal targets, a governance reformer warned yesterday.

HUBERT EDWARDS: Is PM’s ‘economic dignity’ focus the clue to reform?

In the first article of this series, I raised the question as to whether “economic dignity” is an emerging philosophy with potential for spillover into the wider Caribbean. Here I raise another question as to whether there are leaders who have the conviction to act in this direction. Both, I believe, are important questions to contemplate.

HUBERT EDWARDS: Missing the mark on our economic dignity

From a regional perspective, the mission of getting Caribbean countries to a position of economic sustainability and resilience will demand national innovation, productive creativity and a herculean effort on prudent fiscal management. It will also require an unfailing commitment to delivering value across the broadest socio-economic divides that these countries have ever experienced, and a radical cultural shift at multiple levels.

Hubert Edwards: Is economic dignity the Bahamas’ new direction?

Is there a new economic philosophy emerging in The Bahamas? With a relatively new administration, a first-time prime minister and a decidedly tough task ahead in coping with the economic fall-out from COVID-19 and Hurricane Dorian, there could be very fertile ground for such out-of-the-box thinking.

HUBERT EDWARDS: Governance of SOEs critical to ‘end game’

I have consistently argued that Bahamian policymakers must move urgently to implement structural reforms so as to influence the country’s economic fortunes.

Hubert Edwards: Executive chairs at SOEs are a ‘no go’

Corporate governance, which rests on the principles of accountability, transparency, fairness, responsibility and risk management, is essential to well-run companies.

HUBERT EDWARDS: The future of debt

AS well thinking individuals, we are routing for the success of the country.

Bahamas among most exposed to Ukraine war

The Bahamas must brace for multiple economic “uncertainties” over the next 12-18 months, a governance reformer warned yesterday, after it was named among the eight Western Hemisphere states most vulnerable to the Ukraine war.

‘Still among leaders’: But Bahamas’ FDI down 60%

The Bahamas is “still among the leaders” despite a United Nations (UN) agency yesterday revealing that foreign direct investment inflows to this nation declined by 60 percent year-over-year in 2021 to $360m.

Managing the Budget’s perils

The 2022-2023 Budget has generated vibrant, robust discussion in certain quarters and an uncanny level of silence in others.

HUBERT EDWARDS: Today’s Budget for a better tomorrow

We previously considered The Bahamas’ debt sustainability, and looked at the challenges faced from a Caribbean context.

‘NO WAY’ TO PAY BILLS WITHOUT NEW TAXES: Reformer says Budget is most important in history of The Bahamas

A governance reformer yesterday said he was “confident” some tax increases will be unveiled in tomorrow’s Budget, which he branded as the “most important” in Bahamian history to-date.

HUBERT EDWARDS: The low growth, high debt trap

In the first article we assessed some of the consequences from a high, and growing, national debt. With The Bahamas’ debt-to-GDP ratio expected to remain above 80 percent over the mid-term at least, the question that dominates is the extent to which this is sustainable.

‘Be ready for international attacks over digital role’

A financial analyst warns that international “attacks” on the financial services sector should be expected as the country’s involvement in the digital assets and cryptocurrencies business develops.

‘No time to celebrate’ on better fiscal signs

While the better-than-expected fiscal performance gives the Davis administration “something to hang their hat on” heading into the upcoming 2022-2023 Budget, it was yesterday warned: “It’s not time to celebrate yet.”

SOE reforms critical to economic revival

For those who pay attention to The Bahamas’ affairs, it is clear the challenges we face today could be with us for a while yet.

The Moody’s verdict on the state of The Bahamas

Any endeavour that does not seek answers and direction for improvement is but a frolic.

Gas station shut down to ‘bring country to halt’

A gas station shut down would “bring the country to a halt” and threaten the “nascent recovery” from COVID-19, a governance reformer warned yesterday, adding that such a move would be “ill-advised”.

HUBERT EDWARDS: The Moody’s verdict on state of The Bahamas

In the first of a two-part series, Hubert Edwards examines the implications of the rating agency's assessment for the country's economic and fiscal outlook.

HUBERT EDWARDS: The IMF’s ‘inconclusive’ concluding statements

This article concludes my assessment of The Bad points in the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) recent Article IV statement on The Bahamas, starting with the recommendation for increased interest rates and then considering The Concerning issues.

The IMF’s “Inconclusive” Concluding Statement – PART II

Part II concludes assessment of “The Bad” (see Part I) points in the IMF statement starting with the paradox of the recommendation for increased interest rates and then consider the “The Concerning” issues.

‘Don’t imperil’ citizens over taxation reforms

Tax reform must “not imperil” the Bahamian private sector and citizens, a governance reformer is warning, adding that income taxation is not a cure-all for the country’s fiscal and economic woes by itself.

IMF interest rate fears dampened

Bahamian financial analysts yesterday dampened fears of near-term interest rate hikes after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested such increases may be necessary to protect the US dollar exchange rate peg.

A perilous state of affairs

In a second article, Hubert Edwards writes that The Bahamas must enact 'the greatest set of reforms the country has ever seen' to set it on the right economic and fiscal track . . .

‘Comfort’ as PM pledges tax increases last resort

Businesses and Bahamians can take “comfort” from the Prime Minister’s repeated assertion that new and/or increased taxes will be “a last resort”, a governance reformer said yesterday.

Bahamas to ‘feel brunt’ of Russian sanctions shock

The Bahamas will “feel the brunt” of the fall-out from Russia’s Ukraine invasion, a governance reformer warned yesterday, with hyper-inflation threatening to plunge the world into a depression.

HUBERT EDWARDS: Reigniting the debate on Bahamian taxation

Commenting on public policy issues requires careful and determined effort given that these are always fluid and dynamic, while positions taken often draw scrutiny. Over this series of articles looking at the Bahamian tax regime, I am always mindful there are things I do not know, but with careful analysis there are important matters that can be explored. This, the final of four pieces, looks at developing issues that have the potential to move the needle while sharing a few cautionary points.

HUBERT EDWARDS: Reigniting the debate on Bahamian taxation

This will be a very interesting year economically. Continued COVID-19 headwinds, the first true Budget from the new administration and, consequently, the change in “ownership” of prevailing policy positions will definitely cause a shift in perspective.

HUBERT EDWARDS: Reigniting the debate on Bahamian taxation

The Bahamian taxation debate is reigniting. The country faces a narrow, and not so clear, path, but will have to confront its taxation regime soon.

HUBERT EDWARDS: Bahamas requires open reckoning on challenges

The economic recovery for The Bahamas must be urgent, broad-based, strategic and focused on multiple areas at the same time. Every effort must take on a holistic approach, designed to secure fundamental and sustainable fixes for the issues that have plagued the country for decades, and create economic growth but not just for the initial recovery. Anything that is otherwise will be detrimental to the long-term well-being of the nation. In this piece, I look at some select areas of the recent Speech from the Throne.