Economist warns reserves issues 'loom' long-term

As of Thursday, August 6, 2020

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

The Bahamas faces a "looming problem" over the "lifeblood" of its economy if it is unable to swiftly attract significant foreign currency inflows, an economics lecturer warned yesterday.

Rupert Pinder, who lectures at the University of The Bahamas, told Tribune Business that the Central Bank-imposed restrictions on Bahamian portfolio (real estate and securities) investments abroad and the repatriation of profits (dividends) by the Canadian-owned banks had merely delayed - not prevented - these outflows from occurring.

Voicing concern that The Bahamas' external reserves, which are critical to supporting the one:one fixed exchange rate peg with the US dollar, could face a sudden "tide" of pressure once the economy is reopened, Mr Pinder echoed Central Bank governor, John Rolle's, call for "urgency" to find an alternative source of foreign exchange earnings as the tourism shutdown persists.

"In my view, they're still a claim against the foreign reserves," Mr Pinder said of the investment and profit repatriation deferrals. "As the economy opens back up, how much can you hold the tide on the repatriation of profits? At some point someone is going to want to cash in."

Mr Rolle on Tuesday said the external reserves "remain adequate to fully support the value of the Bahamian dollar fixed exchange rate, even with a sizeable reduction still expected over the remainder of 2020".

The reserves, which have hovered around the $2bn mark since the first COVID-19 lockdown was imposed in mid-March, are projected to be drawn down to around $1bn by year-end 2020 to finance The Bahamas' continued demand for imports amid the absence of replenishing foreign exchange inflows from tourism.

However, Mr Pinder expressed scepticism over the foreign reserves remaining relatively stable at around $2bn. While foreign currency outflows have been trimmed by the COVID-19 lockdown and reduced economic activity, he pointed out that The Bahamas still has to finance fuel and food imports with minimal inflows coming in.

"What it says to me is that there's still very much a level of concern over the foreign reserves," Mr Pinder. "While it's at a healthy level, a lot of it really has to do with the fact we have suspended a lot of the outflows, and a lot of it is what I call deferrals.

"The National Insurance Board repatriation of overseas investments, all of that helps to boost the reserves. But the reality is we have growing debt problems, all this deficit spending, money that has to service those debts, and even if some is denominated in local currency that is going to place some pressure on the reserves."

Mr Rolle on Tuesday hinted that the external reserves could come under significant pressure over the medium-term, especially going into 2021, if tourism did not rebound and an alternative foreign currency earnings replacement was not found.

"Monetary and fiscal policies must stay protective of the Bahamian dollar currency peg, ensuring that the external reserves are stabilised or incrementally improved during 2021," Mr Rolle said. "There is therefore an ongoing urgency to expand other foreign currency earning activity, with foreign direct investments being at the top of this list."

In response, Mr Pinder told Tribune Business: "The long and short of it all is he's doing the best he can given the climate we're in in terms of short-term measures, but what he's [Mr Rolle] saying is this problem looms in the long-run in the absence of any significant foreign exchange earnings.

"Everything he's doing right now is geared to the short and medium-term. These are just short-term measures..... We need to find a way to earn foreign exchange. We can talk about opening up the domestic economy, but the lifeblood of this economy is those foreign reserves. The domestic economy cannot function in any sustainable way in the absence of those foreign exchange earnings."

Mr Rolle disclosed on Tuesday that restrictions imposed on capital outflows had boosted the external reserves by $200m to-date, as he pledged: "Losing control of the peg is not an option.

He said the National Insurance Board's (NIB) liquidation of its overseas investment holdings, and their repatriation, had brought "in excess of $100m" in foreign currency back to The Bahamas. And the bar on dividend/profit repatriation by the Canadian-owned banks, coupled with the block on foreign portfolio investments by Bahamians, was likely to conserve up to a further $180m.

Bahamas-based commercial banks had also been given "at least $100m of excess space" to obtain foreign currency from alternative sources to the Central Bank, reducing reliance on its foreign currency reserves and its recycling of US dollar government debt issues.

tribanon 3 years, 8 months ago

The situation is even much more dire than Rupert Pinder and John Rolle make it out to be. And this mainly because of Minnis and Turnquest's very foolish decision to ring-fence the civil workforce from the effects of our devastating economic collapse.

Meanwhile Minnis and Turnquest are quite content to just sit back and watch the private business sector shrivel up and die, with the resulting unemployed having to pray for help from the National Insurance Board while joining the evergrowing lines for government and NPO food handouts.

Economist 3 years, 8 months ago

With our current immigration policy it will be impossible to attract any foreign currency investment.

The Bahamas has a very bad reputation amoung investors and the statements made by the Minister of Immigration in the House of Assembly, earlier this week, is sealing our fate to become economically just like Haiti.

mrsmith 3 years, 8 months ago

Foreign investors don’t need to be present to have foreign currency. They don’t need to immigrate or take up residence to make investment. How do you figure this is about immigration?

tribanon 3 years, 8 months ago

Are you for real?

mrsmith 3 years, 8 months ago

Absolutely. But I see you are a traditional thinker, as you can’t imagine the possibilities of my statement. So, carry on.

happyfly 3 years, 8 months ago

It's your bad imagination Trib. What we expect is for foreign investors to just send us bucket loads of money and f... off and not ask any questions or expect to ever see their money again. It's a s simple as that :P

tribanon 3 years, 8 months ago

Many thanks for putting it all in the right perspective. For a moment there I was clueless as to where @mrsmith was coming from. LOL

TalRussell 3 years, 8 months ago

Remarkably the hotels and tourists, don't have to abide by Mr. Thordore Minnis's military imposed lockdown laws but all others face a possible stiff jail sentence. Nod Once for Yeah, Twice for No?

Economist 3 years, 8 months ago

To mrsmith Take a look at the competitors to The Bahamas. The ones who have low unemployment and, I might add, much lower COVID-19 because they did more, much more testing.

Look at their hospital facilities as well.

They don't suffer from your phobia ("I scared") with respect to foreigners and they are benefiting from their more educated and secure attitude.

mrsmith 3 years, 8 months ago

I AM a foreigner, idiot. How does your idiotic statement of flooding a country with ‘more educated and secure‘ foreigners automatically translate to more foreign money in your pocket? Just give them all the quick easy right to live and work in your country and be done with it, so long as you get whatever foreign currency they decide to drip into your economy? They conduct their foreign business in foreign currency, and their local business in local currency. I should know. And you call yourself Economist. Jesus.

ThisIsOurs 3 years, 8 months ago

I also dont believe an influx of wealthy foreigners will be a good thing. Im almost positive it will be a continuation, even an acceleration of what we've seen so far, prices will rise as businesses price goods and services to those who have money. Bahamians will be squeezed into lower and lower economic status. Im no economist but thats what Ive seen as a result of Atlantis, Bahamar, Albany. Bahamians with maid jobs at market rate. In the 90's the market was paying well, now... not so much. but prices continue to rise.

I've always believed the way out of this is investing in Bahamians. Investing in skills development, investing in the tech sector. If we had just 5 Bahamians develop cutting edge solutions it would be more than enough to revitalize the country. Added to that there are a host of digital services that Bahamians could provide the world. I was absolutely shocked when they passed the CEB bill and gave the farm away to foreign mom and pop IT shops. It was a complete lack of understanding of the local potential. And again maid and landscaping jobs for Bahamians in exchange for million dollar govt contract money straight to a US account.

Economist 3 years, 8 months ago

You are not referring to foreigners who are working here. Had you ever wondered why one of the most reputable Swiss banks pulled out of The Bahamas? Remember the immigration round up where they picked someone up because he did not have his work permit on him, even though he told them he had one. They didn't check with headquarters, they just bundled him into the van.

Think of how many good paying jobs that Bahamains lost over that. Look at others that have pulled out. Look at how the Bahamian middle class has shrunk over the last 10 years.

We do have a number of very bright Bahamians who can do cutting edge solutions but they have looked and decided that they are better off in the country they are working in. Very few power failures, people who show up when they say they will (might have something to do with competition which we don't have here, it's called protectionism).

ThisIsOurs 3 years, 8 months ago

"Had you ever wondered why one of the most reputable Swiss banks pulled out of The Bahamas? Remember the immigration round up"

I do! I made a comment about it and speculated that that detention must have been the final straw for the bank.

I'm not advocating for protectionism. My position is open, but do it sensibly. It makes sense to me to empower bahamians before you push them off in the deep end to be gobbled up by sharks. Isnt the goal to see bahamians participating? Well do the things that will ensure that happens.

Economist 3 years, 8 months ago

I was referring to our competitors being more secure and they don't have a grade D average either.

Then explain how you get this to work me foreigner.

I am looking at places that had, before COVID 19 unemployment rates of 4.5%, 5.8%, and 6% while we have a rate of 10%-12%.

They do not have a huge national debet like we do. Their schools have clases nearly half the size of The Bahamas. The FDI is much more than ours, nearly tripple in one case.

They have cross fertilization of ideas and have much more sucesful economies.

So tell everyone how you are going to do the same thing without their type of immigration policy.

Economist 3 years, 8 months ago

First, I was referring to our competitors as being better educated and secure.

Secondly, I was referring to economies with, before COVID 19, unemployment of 4.5% and 5.8% and 6.7% when ours was 10%-12% or more.

I am referring to economies which have attracted much more FDI, indeed one has had three times ours in the last 10 years.

I am referring to economies with better education for its people, better health facilities.

Explain, realistically, how we are to get what you suggest.

BTW, I am well aware of the expenditures of the foreigners, especially in the more successful economies.

Economist 3 years, 8 months ago

I am quite happy to debate this till the cows come home.

The fact is Bahamians are as good as anyone else, but we don't demand it of them. There are tens of thousands of Bahamians working around the world and they didn't need Bahamas Immigration to protect them to get the job.

No business, foreign or Bahamian wants to spend thousands of dollars on work permits if they don't have to. They are in business to make money, not to hire expensive foreigners.

In the past (40 -50 years ago) foreigners, who worked here, brought numerous businesses to The Bahamas; that has dried up now. Those businesses created thousands of jobs for Bahamians and paid millions into the Public Treasury.

That business has gone to our compeditors. You may want ask yourselves what they are doing that we are not.

ThisIsOurs 3 years, 8 months ago

Some of us can pull ourselves up. the truth is some need help. Some need more help than others. Some just don't know how. All of us will benefit the more of us that succeed.

tribanon 3 years, 8 months ago

Many, sadly, now need much more help than you or I could ever imagine. And it's going to get much worse before things begin to turn around, assuming they will ever turn around for our generation or the next one.

InformedBahamian 3 years, 8 months ago

I don't agree that Bahamians are as good as anyone else, and we need to stop blindly believing that if we want to make progress. Graduating D average students do not result in a working-class that is "just as good as anyone", it results in a working-class suitable for tourism service jobs.

The Tribune