The Tribune

By YOURI KEMP

Tribune Business Reporter

ykemp@tribunemedia.net

The former deputy prime minister yesterday backed the Central Bank’s assessment that the Bahamian economy will not fully recover from COVID-19 until 2023, with much depending on how the latest case surge is handled.

K Peter Turnquest, also ex-minister for finance, told Tribune Business yesterday the Central Bank’s forecast that “very near-term risks” have increased is a “reasonable statement” given the potential ramifications for tourism of the recent spike in COVID-19 infections.

He added: “Persons may lose confidence in the jurisdiction’s ability to contain the spread” if it is not brought under control. While praising the Ministry of Tourism for “handling the situation very well”, Mr Turnquest said: “We must continue to commit to pre-testing and continuous testing. While guests are here, we haven’t heard of any major outbreak.”

While incidents such as the six passengers who tested positive for COVID-19 on board Royal Caribbean Cruise Line’s Adventure of the Seas late last month is “something to watch out for”, Mr Turnquest said The Bahamas can “mitigate some of the risks”.

“But make no mistake: There is a risk of our COVID-19 cases continuing to be elevated and, almost as importantly, South Florida is a major gateway into the country. Their rates have yet to start to moderate,” the former deputy prime minister added.

Florida broke its state record for COVID-19 infection ratea this past Sunday with 21,683 new cases, surpassing its previous January 7, 2021, peak of 19,334 cases. Mr Turnquest added that Texas, another major gateway and tourism market, is encountering the same issues. “We’ve been doing fairly well with Houston, and now Texas is also elevated,” he said.

With all this outside The Bahamas’ control, Mr Turnquest said it is unlikely that a full economic rebound will occur sooner than 2023. “I don’t see it,” he added. “I think a rebound by 2023 is a reasonable statement. The fact of the matter is that tourism, while coming back, is not going to likely approach 2019 levels within the next six to eight months, and then it’s always a lag.

“In addition to that, as the Central Bank governor would have mentioned, there are still delays in reconstruction following Hurricane Dorian. Meaning that not only are we not benefiting from the construction that can happen with the reconstruction efforts, but also it means that some of those assets are offline and not able to produce for us and help.”