The Tribune

By NEIL HARTNELL

Tribune Business Editor

nhartnell@tribunemedia.net

A Cabinet minister yesterday predicted stopover visitor arrivals will hit a 45,000 post-COVID re-opening peak for March - albeit they remain up to 90 percent down on pre-pandemic levels.

Dionisio D'Aguilar, minister of tourism and aviation, told the House of Assembly during the mid-year Budget debate that tourism's revival - and that of the wider economy and government finances - hinge on the speed and success of vaccination roll-outs in The Bahamas and its key visitor source markets.

Arguing that tourism's rebound remains the only viable recovery option for The Bahamas, Mr D'Aguilar - in what could be interpreted as a warning to his fellow MPs and Cabinet ministers not to consider new and/or increased taxes - warned that "the taxpayer has no more to give".

Acknowledging that the 2020-2021 Budget deficit is "unsustainable", and that "you can’t keep borrowing $1.3bn year-after-year and not run yourself up on rocks", Mr D'Aguilar argued that "growing back the economy" was the only sustainable way to eliminate the vast quantities of 'red ink' covering the Government's balance sheet.

Noting that the instinctive reaction of politicians is to seek increased revenue, he said: "The cry from Rawson Square is always for more. We want more. The taxpayer needs to give us more. With spending already at $3bn, I can realistically say that the taxpayer has no more to give. That is the reality. We can kid ourselves that there is more. But Mr Speaker, there is no more."

With stopover visitors currently at just 10-12 percent of the 1.8m that The Bahamas attracted pre-COVID in 2019, Mr D'Aguilar argued: "No matter what the pundits say, there is absolutely nothing that can replace tourism in the short-term..... Our tourism industry has received billions upon billions upon billions of investment, employs two out of every three Bahamians and generates at least 50 percent of our GDP.

"Given the significance of tourism, given our dependency on tourism, our recovery and the subsequent reduction of this massive $1.3bn annual deficit is contingent on the revival of tourism. Plain and simple. Our economy will improve when tourism improves.

"And tourism will improve when persons feel safe to travel here. And tourism will improve when the current health situation improves in our core markets such that they don’t need to go through the current riga-ma-roll of COVID testing and getting a health visa in order to travel to The Bahamas.

"So, I encourage all Bahamians to get vaccinated as quickly as they can, especially those employed in the tourism sector. If our visitors are vaccinated and we are vaccinated, then we will be in a good position to blow open the borders and let the good times roll again."

Mr D'Aguilar said the Ministry of Tourism was receiving calls from Americans every day asking if they can visit The Bahamas without producing a COVID-19 negative PCR test because they have been vaccinated. This, he argued, underscored the need for this nation to rapidly roll-out its vaccination initiative as tourism's rebound is becoming increasingly dependent on it.

Pointing to research by the United Nations' World Tourism Organisation that shows tourism losses related to COVID-19 are 11 times' those of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, Mr D'Aguilar said the pandemic last year sent international travel back to 1990 levels.

While total visitor arrivals to The Bahamas were down 74 percent year-over-year in 2020, which was a greater plunge than the Caribbean's 67 percent average, the minister added: "For the past four months, we have received over 125,000 travel applications from both visitors and returning residents. Since the New Year, we are averaging over 2,000 each day.

"And, each month, Mr Speaker, the number of visitors applying for health visas is slowly increasing. In November, our first month of re-opening, there were 14,000 visitors who applied. In December, there were 32,000 visitors who applied. In January, there were 21,000 who applied - a decrease caused by President Biden’s announcement that quarantining for persons returning to the US from travel abroad was being contemplated....an idea that was later dismissed.

"In February, there were over 28,000 that applied. And for March, I estimate that close to 45,000 visitors will apply for a health visa given that Easter falls at the end of this month and the hotels are reporting healthier bookings. So, as you can see, Mr. Speaker, the visitors are slowly returning, still a far cry from the 150,000 per month we were receiving pre-COVID, but increasing every month."

With The Bahamas receiving 125,000 total visitors since its November re-opening, Mr D'Aguilar predicted that arrivals will steadily improve throughout 2021 to result in a positive Christmas for the tourism industry.

Pointing to pent-up travel demand, with all Americans predicted to be vaccinated by the end of May, Mr D'Aguilar warned that "a delayed vaccine roll-out will prove another costly setback; one we cannot afford".

Turning to the challenges for The Bahamas' niche tourism markets, he added that "Bahamas Bridal Association members cited almost a 99 percent cancellation or postponement trend across the board" due to COVID-19.

"The Bahamas virtual romance expo was in some way part of the Ministry’s rescue and restoration plan for The Bahamas’ very lucrative romance business which netted more than $400m in revenue in 2019 and over 182,000 visitors," Mr D'Aguilar said.