The Tribune

By RODERICK A. SIMMS II

Advocate for Family Island growth

E-mail: RASII@ME.com

The COVID-19 pandemic has generated uncertainty around the fate of economic and social development in The Bahamas. While these uncertainties present unique opportunities for growth, having growth plans already in place is be one of the most effective ways to help countries recover from the pandemic’s devastating fall-out. There is no doubt that the newly-elected Davis administration has its work cut out, but one silver lining is the National Development Plan’s (NDP) existence. The plan was originally crafted under the Christie administration, and each inhabited island has its own version. But little has been said in recent years about the execution of the plan’s recommended actions. As the global economy struggles to recover, the Bahamas’ NDP is an essential tool in helping to get a grip on the present - and upcoming - challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. It is also time for the plan to perhaps be improved given the lessons learnt from various industry responses. The plan is a sound starting point, and provides methods and targets to improve areas such as food sovereignty, education, healthcare, tourism and digital services.

Commitment to the Bahamian people

The NDP shows a true form of commitment to the Bahamian people. Knee-jerk decisions are often made in response to crises. While some crises can be predicted, the magnitude is often unforeseeable. As a result of Hurricane Dorian and COVID-19, thousands of Bahamians were forced to work reduced hours or became unemployed. The magnitude of these events was not foreseen by governments and policymakers. In response, the former Minnis administration distributed millions of dollars in food assistance, housing and benefits to assist many families through these difficult times. However, there is no simple answer to how a government should respond, and these types of solutions often put a strain on resources - especially when it is not planned. In bigger economies such as the US, the distribution of stimulus cheques has proven just that. While its intent was to increase consumption and stimulate the economy (grow GDP), economists have estimated there would only be a slight output gap, translating to a mild rise in inflation.

The answer is never clear, and we do not expect governments to know and do everything. But at least we can expect a commitment from our government to do its very best. Implementing and finalising the working draft of the NDP’s policies would help to diversify the economy, appropriately manage public debt, and ensure accountability. By sticking with the NDP, the Davis administration has an opportunity to show they are dedicated to meeting the needs of the Bahamian people regardless of unpredictable events.

Pivot and Grow

In previous segments, we spoke about how economic diversification plays a key role in how The Bahamas and other Caribbean countries will survive in the future. Industries such as tourism, along with other service sectors (banking, insurance etc.), have always provided jobs to Bahamians and, as a result, play a crucial role in keeping the domestic economy functioning. However, we have seen that unprecedented disasters, even the ones we can prepare for, will have an impact on the services sector, particularly tourism. A plan should include steps towards a sustainable tourism sector with the expansion of Bahamian-owned boutique hotels, eco-tourism activities on the Family Islands, and a service-led industry that allows for human resources to be exported rather than imported. This pandemic should have warned policymakers that The Bahamas’ heavy reliance on tourism is simply not sustainable, and that while improving the industry is beneficial, looking outside to more innovative sectors would be better to build on for future economic and social development.

Risk Management

The NDP provides the Government with a road map for making informed decisions and, crucially, reduces potential risks ahead of unforeseen events and crises. For instance, the NDP points out that “new technologies, procedures and medicines are brought on to the market every year, which Bahamians rightfully expect to access”. The plan has identified that there is a need to meet this commitment through alternative revenue generation, deferring other priorities and by generating more efficiencies within the system. If the plan is followed carefully to meet its healthcare targets, it would help to us to have the funds and resources needed to at least provide sufficient care in a crisis.

The right team

For the NDP’s policies to produce measurable outcomes, a leader with vision is needed to achieve this. In the past, we were fortunate to have Nicola Virgill-Rolle lead the creation of The Bahamas’ NDP. Her departure from the National Development Plan committee left many unanswered questions regarding leadership. The Davis administration has not yet indicated any plans to continue with the NDP or announced a leader, unit or committee to complete its work. One person that comes to mind as a good fit is Allyson Maynard Gibson QC, former attorney general and minister of legal affairs. In her former post, Mrs Maynard-Gibson showed a keen interest in ensuring The Bahamas became a smart island nation along with using information and communications technology (ICT to drive growth and development.

Conclusion

Most of the hard work is already done. The NDP is a tool that governments around the world have committed to reaching sustainable goals. These sustainable goals not only provide a road map for a better future, but keep countries on track with what the global economy requires to meet the demands of the fourth industrial revolution (digital era). COVID is just one of many global crises that can arise. We must observe and learn the trends, mistakes and changes that are occurring. Using the NDP to prepare The Bahamas as a competitive nation is a great first step.