The Tribune

By RASHAD ROLLE

Tribune Senior Reporter

rrolle@tribunemedia.net

ELIZABETH residents are weighing the costs and benefits of choosing stability over change in one of the most closely watched races of the 2021 election cycle.

Pundits agree their socio-economically diverse constituency is among several seats that may indicate which party will win the general election, having voted for the victorious party in three of the last four cycles.

The constituency is attracting further interest because of the outsized presence of former Health Minister Dr Duane Sands, a maverick candidate with leadership aspirations and the full-throated backing of former Prime Minister Hubert Ingraham who has publicly endorsed him and only one other Free National Movement candidate: Pineridge’s Welbourne Bootle.

Dr Sands won 61 percent of the vote in 2017 compared to the Progressive Liberal Party’s candidate, Henry Storr, who won only 30 percent of the vote. He won all but one of Elizabeth’s polling divisions, losing the second division, home to Elizabeth Estates, by just 16 points.

To win the seat, the Progressive Liberal Party’s candidate, Senator Jobeth Colbey-Davis, will need to boost her margins in Elizabeth Estates and mirror or exceed what former PLP MP Ryan Pinder achieved in 2017 when he carried the division by 93 votes over Dr Sands.

Both parties hope to lose little ground in the typically close first polling division, which stretches from Barrine Close in the west to Fox Hill Road in the east. Dr Sands carried the division by just 11 votes in 2017 and only two votes in 2012.

Yesterday, a number of residents in that division appeared willing to give the FNM another chance, though some leaned toward the PLP or a third party.

Faithful party supporters like 80-year-old Mary Wright, who consistently supports the FNM after voting for the PLP in the days of the United Bahamian Party, and Paris Edwards, a longtime PLP supporter, said they see no reason to switch allegiances now.

Meanwhile, frustrated Barrine Close resident Gloria made clear her vote will come with a price.

“I’m not voting unless someone gives me some money because I don’t never see them. I need me at least $1,000, nothing less than $500,” she said with no hint of humour. “I ain’ never get nothing from them, I just does go and vote but I mean you does vote every (five years) and after election you don’t see nobody, you don’t hear nobody, you can’t even make an appointment with anybody.”

Some PLP supporters have complained in recent days that the Minnis administration’s decision to let those in quarantine vote alongside others is an effort to drive a low voter turnout.

No evidence suggests, however, that low voter turnout will affect one party more than the other. J Williams, a 29-year-old Barrine Close resident, is leaning towards the FNM but is unsure she will vote at all because of COVID-19 and the possibility that protocols will not be followed on Election Day.

“I saw videos of the lines at the advanced polls and there wasn’t any social distancing,” she said. “I’m still thinking about it and it’s likely that I will (vote) but I’m not sure. The three times I’ve voted I haven’t voted for the same party. I don’t attach to the party.”

Ms Williams said if she votes at all, she will likely vote for the same party on Thursday that she did in 2017.

“The reason being for that is how the people in the parties reacted when certain decisions were being made to get through the pandemic,” she said. “That was a big thing for me because it really showed how they valued the lives of Bahamians. That’s a big factor because we’re still in the pandemic. For now, I prefer stability. I don’t think a drastic change is best right now.”

Scientific research this cycle has suggested that a high number of undecided voters have entered the final quarter of the political season. In 2017, such voters appeared to break big for the FNM, and PLP insiders are betting that they will benefit from a similar boost this time as the opposition party.

Some undecided Bahamians like first-time voter Terron Musgrove are still unclear who they will support.

“I’m seriously scared for my country,” Mr Musgrove said, “even though Minnis did his best and no other prime minister faced what he faced. How they go about on these big floats like we having Carnival and we having big COVID and they doing that. I most likely gon’ vote but I don’t think it makes sense to vote because it ain’ like even if you change government it gon’ be any different. Governments will continue doing what they always do, bettering themselves rather than bettering the people.”

As many as 15 parties will have candidates contesting seats in the general election. Thirty-one other candidates are running as independents.

Chabince Lane resident Pauline, 53, said she supported the PLP in 2017 but is strongly considering a third party or an independent candidate this time.

“Both the Free National Movement and the Progressive Liberal Party, both of those parties were already given chances so I’m trying to look at a third party to see if I could support one of those candidates. It’s still a question mark but I would have preferred for election to be next year where you could get more time to meet more of the new candidates from the other parties,” she said.

For some political observers, the sometimes uneasy relationship between Dr Sands and Dr Minnis is another reason to pay close attention to the constituency.

Gatewood Lane resident Britney Ferguson is an enthusiastic supporter of Dr Sands, but she said she won’t vote for him because of the way Dr Minnis has treated him.

“I will support Duane Sands until he stops being Duane Sands,” she said. “Duane Sands is my member of Parliament, my prime minister, my minister of health. . .and everything else from he came into office until today. He saved my husband’s life two weeks ago moments before Nomination Day against advice of people who felt he should’ve been in whatever meeting after my husband completely severed his radial artery. I reached out to Dr Sands to get assistance. He operated on my husband.

“I can’t support the FNM because what I can say is that at the end of the day Dr Sands is a man of his word and he is very accountable. The prime minister is not accountable. The way he called election, my cousins who were excited to vote can’t even vote. And while you want to vote for the best representative, the reality of it is you know it’s about party so if the prime minister can’t respect someone like that?”