The Tribune

With CHARLIE HARPER

A THOUGHTFUL friend was musing the other day about the parlous state of security in the world. “Two weeks ago,” he said ruefully, “I was worried about climate change. It’s so obvious that the world is heating up and that we’re all guilty of participating in overcooking planet earth. Rising sea levels threaten The Bahamas and other places I cherish, including South Florida. The large economies of the world lack the skill or will to curb their carbon emissions. We seemed to be on an inexorable conveyor belt to oblivion.”

Then Putin invaded Ukraine. “I hardly think about the climate anymore,” my friend said. “Now it’s non-stop Russia, all the time. It seems like more people are psychoanalyzing Putin than were looking for clues to Trump’s bizarre behaviour, even at his most mystifying. Climate change is terrifying, but at least its most calamitous effects are probably decades down the road. This war between Russia as invader and Ukraine as victim could easily get out of control and lead to World War III. The unimaginable effects of that would be felt, in all probability, this year.”

Albert Einstein may or may not have been the smartest man of the modern age, but he is certainly one of the most widely quoted. One often-attributed citation making the rounds these days is the following: “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” In other words, the World War III antagonists, long assumed to be the US and Russia, would reflexively bomb each other back into the stone age. Sticks and stones would then be the only remaining weapons for any surviving future combatants.

As the world contemplates the dreadful prospect of the West and Russia stumbling into a prospective thermonuclear exchange for the first time in the history of our world, what’s the way out of this morass?

Perhaps it’s not too surprising that a currently popular theory is that China is the way out of the mess the world is in.

How’s that? Didn’t the two most renowned autocrats in the world today, Presidents Xi of China and Putin of Russia, just conclude amiable talks on the eve of the China-hosted Winter Olympic Games? Less than a month ago, according to the Guardian, Xi and Putin called on the West to “abandon the ideologized approaches of the cold war”.

 They also said the bonds between the two countries had “no limits. There are no forbidden areas of cooperation.” It was the 38th time Xi and Putin had met in the past nine years.

In the joint statement released by the Kremlin, Putin and Xi called on NATO to rule out expansion in eastern Europe, denounced the formation of security blocs in the Asian Pacific region, and specifically criticized the trilateral security pact between the US, UK and Australia.

 That was then. Now, the Chinese seem as baffled as the rest of the world by the inspired resilience of Ukrainians and their TV star-turned-President Volodymyr Zelensky. Defiant in the face of overwhelming Russian force – and by the way, still alive – Zelensky has become the world’s hero. Lashing themselves even more closely to the world’s present pariah Putin cannot be a path the Chinese will embrace, inasmuch as the hallmark of their foreign policy - at least outside their own backyard - has been to seek political influence with generous gifts to small nations like The Bahamas while eschewing military predominance.

Equally, if not more important though, is the Chinese drive for economic dominion. Already with the world’s second-largest economy and by far its largest population, China likely has little interest in the upheaval that a major Russia-West conflict would surely produce. And part of the Chinese game plan is almost certainly not to be Russia’s only friend in the world, particularly in the present circumstances.

Many observers feel if Xi were to whisper to Putin that he should abandon his conquest and occupation of Ukraine, the Russian leader would have to take it seriously. What if, for instance, China mentioned that it would otherwise no longer be prepared to buy as much now-boycotted Russian oil as may have been committed. What if the two nations’ significant bilateral trade started to decline even as Russia was cut off from the commerce of much of the rest of the world?

There’s an old fable about three fighting fish placed in the same tank for the amusement of their human owners. Two of them immediately set upon each other, battling to an exhausting finish while the third looks on from a remote spot. Eventually, one of the combatants prevails, but is exhausted from the fight. The well-rested third fish promptly kills the victor and eats both of the others.

Some observers think China may be the third, clever fish waiting for the US and Russia to wear each other down and then take over world leadership. But this ignores the Chinese roadmap for world predominance, which is not presently military.

The Chinese have already been modifying their message to increasingly loudly condemn the fighting and tragedy unfolding in Ukraine following the Russian invasion. Beijing has even offered to mediate the war.

Meantime, it’s March in Ukraine. While many fields and verges are still frozen, and snow is still falling, a spring thaw is in prospect. There are reports that one of the reasons for the lengthy delay in forward progress by a 40-mile-long Russian force headed for Kyiv is the transformation of ground along the route from frozen tundra to mud.

 Every “thoughtful” talking head is predicting the eventual military collapse of the Ukrainian resistance. But their sober, reflexive guesses have often been wrong so far. We’ll see if the Russian juggernaut materializes or continues to stall. The Russian invaders are reportedly doing better along the Black Sea coast, and are advancing toward the critical port city of Odessa.

Critics, even some of the obdurate Biden opponents in the American Congress, are beginning to fall in line behind the President, as was customary in many such situations in the past, though not all. For instance, many Republicans fought President Franklin Roosevelt for years as his administration tried to provide support to Britain and other Western Allies against Adolf Hitler and the Nazis.

 Biden’s popularity in the polls is on the rise as Americans seem to generally approve of his administration’s handling of this war which represents such an enormous threat to a world order that has essentially existed since 1945. There are reports of some Americans seeking to volunteer to fight along with Ukrainians on the battlefield.

 At the same time, hundreds of disaffected US truckers remain assembled just outside Washington in an effort to raise awareness of their pandemic-related grievances. They are also wasting gasoline even as fuel prices threaten to drive further inflation and mask mandates have almost all been dropped.

One of the American administration’s initiatives could have important repercussions in the months ahead. A US group is presently in Venezuela, reportedly to discuss oil options with the Maduro government. Some are calling for Biden to replace recently sanctioned oil from Russia with oil from Venezuela.

Before Washington broke ties with Venezuela in 2019, most Venezuelan crude was shipped to Gulf of Mexico refineries in the US. Now that practice could resume. But Biden must beware: An estimated 200,000 Venezuelan refugees now reside in South Florida. They may not support US trading with Maduro any more than the powerful Cuban exile community there appreciated President Obama’s dealings with the Havana government.

Earlier this week came a corporate announcement that should convince any remaining sceptics of the seriousness of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. McDonalds revealed it has suspended operations in all of its 850 restaurants in Russia and 100 more in Ukraine. McDonalds has generously offered to continue paying its 70,000 employees in the two countries during this hiatus, at least for the near term.

McDonalds golden arches in the US now boast of 99 billion meals served. This giant worldwide concern is now forfeiting nine percent of its estimated annual revenue by closing its Russian and Ukrainian operations. McDonalds will take a hit to its bottom line of roughly $2 billion if the closures remain in effect for the rest of this year.