The Tribune

AFTER a year in office, the Progressive Liberal Party is facing a similar political gravity that befalls many new governments as their term in office continues and any honeymoon period fades.

Much of the support for the current government was generated by exhaustion with pandemic restrictions. The opening of the economy and the country engendered a collective sigh of relief, hugely benefitting the PLP in its first year in office.

Yet the incumbent administration should recall a basic lesson. Over time, voters become increasingly less angry and annoyed by the previous government, repositioning their criticisms, perennial frustrations and sometimes venom toward current office holders.

Voters tire of listening to incumbents still blaming the last government for most of the nation’s ills. The majority of voters already rendered their judgment on those they sent packing. They are now forming new judgments on the government of the day that will harden over time.

The Philip “Brave” Davis administration is making a number of the similar missteps and mistakes of the former government of Dr Hubert Minnis and other governments at home and abroad in recent history.

Whether the incumbent administration will learn both from its mistakes and those of previous governments is an open question.

At a certain point, a new government owns the issues of the day and is held responsible by voters, the media and others for addressing them in a timely, coherent, intelligent and sustained manner.

The country and the government are beset by a host of complex structural issues that require more than public relations or spin, a default mechanism employed by some governments. While government communications are vital, they are no substitute for sound policy and good governance.

LESSON

This is a lesson the new British Prime Minister, Liz Truss, and her Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, had to relearn over the past several weeks as they were forced to reverse and explain various fiscal decisions.

To their credit, they did promote a big package in an attempt to tackle the structural economic and productivity problems stymieing growth in the UK. They understand the need for urgent and large-scale action. Sir Kier Starmer and Labour will face the same historic challenges if they are elected.

Glossy videos, press conferences and speeches that lack a clear policy direction are no substitute for good political and policy judgment.

When a government is hobbled by policy difficulties, the refrain, “We need to fix communications,” is akin to the captain of a ship exhorting his crew to make sure the boat is beautifully bedecked even as the ship is quickly taking on water after colliding with a deadly reef.

A perennial problem in Bahamas government is a lack of direction from policymakers, including politicians and public officers, who often lean too heavily on their communications staff for policy advice.

ERRORS

With the Oban debacle, the Minnis administration hit a reef, one of several unforced errors that damaged the government, calling into question its competence and credibility. The BPL saga is a policy and political reef of this government’s own making.

One journal described it as “an ill-advised decision that would predictably backfire in all our faces when it deferred the fuel charge increase Bahamas Power & Light sought to implement in March”.

“We will now be faced with the consequences of that decision and the inaction on continuing the hedge strategy left in place by the former administration. The ripple effects of increased energy prices cannot be overstated.”

This is worse than Oban because it will affect every consumer and business. It will be an ongoing story, with myriad economic fallouts.

As reported by NPR within an approximately 24-hour period after the announcement of the BPL price hikes: “The OPEC+ alliance announced a two million barrels a day cut in oil production — an amount that could drive oil and gas prices back up after weeks on a downward trend.”

The exogenous shocks to domestic energy prices will continue, especially because of the war in Ukraine, exponentially driving up food and energy costs in The Bahamas, which produces no energy and imports most of its food.

The IMF is now warning of a global slowdown and recession, with Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva advising: “Things are more likely to get worse before it gets better.”

In reporting on the IMF’s forecast, the Associated Press noted: “Additionally, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation and worsening climate conditions are also impacting world economies and exacerbating other crises, like high debt levels held by lower-income countries.”

CRISIS

We are in the midst of a structural economic crisis that continues to worsen. With two troubling downgrades, one last year and the other one last week, The Bahamas is facing medium - and long-term debt challenges.

Some international lending agencies may be more worried about the credit worthiness of The Bahamas than they are letting on.

This journal’s business editor recently noted: “Moody’s has doubled down on concerns that the Government’s Budget revenue forecasts are ‘overly optimistic’ and that its debt servicing payments will be higher than projected due to the rise in global interest rates.

“The credit rating agency, fresh from downgrading The Bahamas deeper into so-called ‘junk’ status over concerns the Government may be unable to access the debt financing it requires, also suggested that the Davis administration’s plans to restrain public spending ‘will weigh on growth’ and thus slowdown economic expansion.”

In addition to our economic difficulties are entrenched social dysfunction and high crime. This past weekend, the government’s communications and messaging on crime resembled the shambolic messaging by previous governments, with officials contradicting each other as to whether or not there is a crime crisis.

There is a crime crisis on New Providence, with many residents feeling unsafe, afraid, frustrated and anxious at the level of various crimes especially violence. What will be the domestic and international fallout if a visitor is killed as was recently the case in the Turks and Caicos?

LOSE CONFIDENCE

Citizens gradually lose confidence in a government if they believe that officials are not proposing and implementing serious and sustained policies to respond to the issues that matter most. Governments lose credibility if they do not seem to be levelling with the public. Credibility lost is difficult to regain.

As noted in many previous columns, Bahamian governments have not proposed the medium - and long-term social interventions that may reduce violent crime and entrenched social dysfunction.

Kicking deficit and debt problems and social problems down the road may seemingly benefit a government in the short term. But the country will eventually pay quite heavily.

Barbados was one of the best managed countries in the region until things went terribly wrong, in part because of unaddressed structural problems.

As it enters its second year in office, the PLP should remember the tendency by detractors or supporters of a government to comfortably reside in bubbles, bunkers and narrow mindsets.

With The Bahamas facing grave economic and social challenges, it would be politically immature and churlish to root for the government’s failure. We are all in the proverbial ship together.

Meanwhile, there are the often uncritical cheerleaders of a government living inside a rarified atmosphere. There are those who see any criticism as negative and as a kind of “scoffing” at the government, while failing to realise that their comfortable circumstances and defensive crouch are like an impenetrable bubble that will eventually burst.

Most governments succumb to a bubble mentality because its leadership lives in a rarified environment with nice salaries, government vehicles, luxury travel and other perquisites.

Moreover, no Bahamian leader is likely to have a 70 percent approval rating in a country with both parties having a near equal share of the vote, and especially after a historically low voter turnout last year.

Every prime minister needs advisors outside of the bubble who will give him or her honest and unvarnished advice and feedback, especially what leaders may not want to hear, including time-honoured lessons of good governance.

Next Week: Lessons on public policy and good governance.