The Tribune

THE news that crime has dropped is always to be welcomed – even if a close look at the detail raises some questions.

When looking at the statistics, sometimes the percentage numbers can be misleading – a small number of cases can mean a large swing in percentage terms from a small change.

So there is a rise of ten percent in the number of rapes, for example, though that translates to a difference of two cases in the year so far. That kind of statistical swing can easily even out over the year. It is a concern of course, every rise in cases is, and every single case is regrettable.

Equally, while there is a drop in the number of murder cases of 16 percent, we are still at a total of 41 murders this year so far according to the statistics – and we have just experienced a violent week that has pushed the numbers higher. Police Commissioner Clayton Fernander has previously set a goal of fewer than 100 murders this year. We missed that target last year by a distance, and with 41 murders so far this year and we are still in April, there is a long haul ahead of us if we are to avoid reaching three digits in the murder tally.

Some categories make us scratch our heads too. We have 128 armed robberies, 20 robberies and just two attempted robberies. Evidently, the robbers in our society succeed more than they fail in the attempt.

And other categories make us raise an eyebrow – the 60 percent drop in stealing from vehicles, for example. Have we really seen criminals just stop deciding to snatch things from cars?

We should also bear in mind that the police can only record what is reported to them – so if there is an increase in victims reporting crimes, that is positive news in terms of feeling they can approach police for a resolution, but it causes a change in figures that may not actually mean more crimes are being committed, merely more being reported. The reverse is also true – if people feel there is no point reporting a crime to the police, that doesn’t change the number of crimes taking place on our streets, just the total number the police know about.

So we should not place absolute faith in the statistics being a total reflection of our society – nor undervalue them as a sign of our progress.

Reduced numbers are a good thing, and we commend Commissioner Fernander for the direction those numbers are going.

We hope beyond hope that he is successful, not least of all in reaching his stated goal in the number of murders this year.

Every reduction in a category of crime is a step closer to a safer society – and are we not all aching for that? Do we not all long for a world where we do not hear gunshots echoing at night, where we can walk the streets without fear?

If that is so, then we must hope and pray for the success of the police in their mission.

This good news is a glimmer of light. We hope that soon our nation will shine.