The Tribune

With CHARLIE HARPER

“The Cuban Missile Crisis of October 1962 was a direct and dangerous confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War and was the moment when the two superpowers came closest to nuclear conflict,” according to the US State Department’s historical office.

Few would argue. Now, Cuba’s continuing dalliances with America’s most important rivals seem poised to trigger new tensions – but this time with China.

China’s clandestine flirtation with perpetually economically-depressed Cuba was just shown in much clearer focus when the well-respected Wall Street Journal reported that China and Cuba had reached an agreement in principle to build an electronic eavesdropping station on the island. China planned to pay to the Cuban government billions of dollars as part of the negotiations.

Current American National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters that “we have been concerned since day one of this administration about China’s influence activities around the world, certainly in this hemisphere and in this region; we’re watching this very, very closely”.

Another White House source, speaking anonymously, said US intelligence agencies have decided that Chinese spying from Cuba has been an “ongoing” matter and is “not a new development”.

President Joe Biden’s national security team was reportedly briefed by the intelligence community soon after he took office in January 2021 about a number of sensitive Chinese efforts around the globe. Supposedly, these initiatives were in nations where Beijing was weighing expanding logistics, basing and collection infrastructure as part of the People’s Liberation Army’s attempt to further its influence, the official said.

So we in The Bahamas find ourselves, through the accident of geography and the reality of obdurate Cuban economic depression under decades of Communist mismanagement, once again potentially at the nexus of superpower competition.

Since the end of World War II and the successful revolution led by Mao Zedong (once known simply as Chairman Mao), US-China relations have been fraught, to say the least. While the most visible symbol of these tensions has long been the US support for an independent, democratic Taiwan (also called “the republic of China”), a broader geopolitical rivalry has dwarfed that regional issue. In truth, and especially as the reality of Russia’s stunning military unpreparedness and incompetence has been revealed by its misbegotten campaign in Ukraine, China has emerged as the clear counterpoint to the US in the world’s current duopoly.

Still, Taiwan persists as a sore point. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year obviously infuriated Beijing and the Chinese soon thereafter launched extensive, threatening military exercises around Taiwan. Pelosi’s visit was the first in 25 years by the most senior official in the American Congress.

Beijing also was angered by Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen’s stopover in the US last month that included a brief meeting with current House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in southern California.

Still, despite what Washington well realizes are serious provocations by politicians of both parties, the Americans are not passively allowing relations with China to deteriorate.

CIA Director William Burns met in Beijing with his counterpart in May. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan also has met recently with high-ranking Chinese officials.

Furthermore, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has announced plans for a visit to Beijing, though timing has proven to be problematical. And US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin recently spoke briefly with China’s minister of national defense at a security forum in Singapore.

India recently replaced China as the world’s most populous nation. But the Chinese are right up there with America at the apex of world economics and military might now.

Becoming significantly less a factor – except for its massive nuclear arsenal and extensive mineral wealth deposits, of course – is Russia, against whom the US and its NATO allies creep inexorably closer to engaging in an active shooting war. There figures to be much posturing and saber-rattling by the Western allies in the next month in advance of the July 11 NATO summit meeting in former Soviet province Lithuania. The drumbeat has already begun.

In connection with a visit this week to Washington by the NATO secretary-general, Blinken said “I think we can say with conviction that you’ll see at the summit the Alliance reaffirm its commitment – of course, the shared commitment to Article Five and to defending every inch of NATO territory.

“You will see us following up on our commitment to reinforce our defense investments, to strengthening even more the Alliance’s deterrent and defense capacity, and to operationalize many of the plans and programs that were put in place in the Strategic Concept and that continue to be elaborated right now in advance of the summit.”

At almost the same time, as if to support Blinken’s promise, the State Department said that “pursuant to a delegation of authority from President Biden, we are authorizing our 40th drawdown (of an existing Congressionally-approved military and economic aid package) for Ukraine, which will provide $325m more worth of US arms and equipment.

“This security assistance package includes critical air defense capabilities, additional munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, artillery rounds, anti-tank weapons, armored vehicles, and other equipment essential to strengthening Ukraine’s forces on the battlefield.”

Preparedness for and determination to defeat Russia were also on display last weekend. 24 NATO countries, including newest member Finland, took part in combined air force drills in Germany. This was reportedly the biggest single deployment of air assets in NATO’s history, as more than 250 aircraft and 10,000 military personnel were participating. The New York Times said “this was a war game that was supposed to look exactly like the response should be if a NATO member were attacked.”

If Putin and his allies remain in control in Moscow, it looks ever more likely that some very unsettling developments lie ahead in Europe, with implications far beyond the immediate ravaged war zone in Ukraine.

Despite indictment, Trump says ‘I will not drop out of the race’

You could hardly avoid it on cable TV Tuesday afternoon or on network TV that evening. Former US A Donald Trump flew down to Florida from his northern New Jersey golf club to appear in a Miami federal courtroom to subject himself, however briefly, to the American criminal justice system he once oversaw and that now threatens his freedom.

Indicted by a grand jury on 37 federal charges in connection with alleged improper handling – theft, actually – of super-sensitive, highly classified documents revealing national security secrets, Trump had to begin the probably lengthy process of facing criminal charges and defending himself.

There is much speculation about how long this trial will drag on, but it could easily take a year or more. A DC law professor said Trump could die in jail if convicted.

Such a prospect might persuade others to get out of the race. Not Trump. He thrives, as always, on controversy. And it certainly seems as if his GOP base remains solidly behind him. In fact, according to a recent CBS News poll, eighty percent of likely Republican primary voters in a new poll think Trump should still be able to get back to the Oval Office even if he’s convicted in the classified documents case.

76 percent of those same voters told pollsters they’re more concerned that the indictment against Trump was politically motivated than about any national security risk that might have been involved in the ex-president’s decision to retain some very sensitive material. 61 percent of that group also said the indictment won’t change their view of the former president.

After his brief court appearance on Tuesday, Trump was seen waving and giving his familiar thumbs-up to a crowd who had gathered in downtown Miami to catch a glimpse of their hero. He reportedly went straight from the courtroom to hold an impromptu rally in Miami’s famous Cuban exile “Little Havana” neighborhood.

In an interview published in the American political gazette The Hill, Trump was asked the following question by his longtime crony Roger Stone: “Are there any circumstances under which you could see yourself dropping out of the 2024 presidential election?”

“No. None whatsoever,” Trump said. He called the indictment “a disgrace.” “No, I see no case in which I would do that. I just wouldn’t do it. I had opportunities in 2016 to do it. And I didn’t do it,” Trump said. “I will not drop out of the race.”