The Tribune

By JADE RUSSELL

Tribune Staff Reporter

jrussell@tribunemedia.net

THE country faces the threat of intensified tropical cyclones, sea level rise and declining freshwater resources if global temperatures exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, a new report has warned.

The report, “Adapting to climate change challenging for The Bahamas if 1.5 (degrees) C limit crossed,” released by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 funded Provide project, has dire predictions for The Bahamas in the face of climate change.

A key threat to The Bahamas if the global threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius is crossed is intensified tropical cyclones; the report noted wind speed and rainfall are projected to increase.

“Projections of increased intensity of tropical cyclones due to climate change are a major hazard for the country. Climate modelling of projected changes in tropical storms suggest that rainfall associated with tropical cyclones could increase by 20-30 percent and that maximum wind speeds could increase by 2-11 percent,” the report said.

Sea level rise was another hazard mentioned in the report, due to more than 80 percent of The Bahamas’ land surface area being less than one metre above sea level.

The sea level rise was described as an “existential threat” for coastal communities.

“Sea level rise projections for the Caribbean by 2100 relative to the 1980- 1999 mean span a large range, from an increase of 0.13 metres to 1.45 metres.”

In terms of changes in precipitation, it is projected for The Bahamas to have longer dry seasons and shorter wet seasons. However, the report explained the change in rainfall could have a serious impact on the water sector.

The impact can be felt due to the country being dependent on the replenishment of groundwater aquifers through precipitation, since there is a lack of sources for surface water.

Additionally, ocean acidification and warming are also potential worries, which the report noted are a threat for coastal ecosystems.

The Bahamas especially is at risk with five percent of the world’s coral being found in the country and having the world’s third longest barrier reef.

“Projections indicate that if global temperatures exceed 1.5 C of warming, approximately 99 percent of coral reefs will be at risk of destruction,” the report said.

The report said these potential outcomes can have an effect on water security and tourism as well.

“As a result of several hazards, including changes to precipitation patterns and sea level rise, The Bahamas is expected to face significant risks to water security. Freshwater resources are already finite and inadequate, requiring seawater reverse osmosis which currently supplies more than 50 percent of The Bahamas’ potable water supply (The Government of The Bahamas 2018).

“Declining freshwater availability and drought are significant risks with particularly high risks for the southernmost islands where reverse osmosis technologies are less feasible due to small economies of scale,” the report noted.

The report also showed sea level rise is projected to increase the risk of the contamination of freshwater because of its effect on the island’s groundwater lenses.

Intense weather events have a risk of damaging wastewater treatment and collection systems and flood septic tanks and increase the likelihood of contaminating groundwater.

Additionally, the report outlined the projected impact of different category hurricanes on tourism infrastructure such as Category 1 having 34 percent impact, Category 3 having a 69 percent impact, and a Category 5 storm having an 83 percent impact.

“Tourism, the main economic sector for The Bahamas, is also projected to be at high risk. Most tourism properties currently lie in a storm surge zone and the extent of properties within the zone increases as sea levels rise.”

The report continued: “With 1m of sea level rise, a Category 1 hurricane is projected to impact 34 percent of the tourism infrastructure on New Providence. A Category 3 hurricane will affect 69 percent of infrastructure and a Category 5 storm will affect 83 percent of tourism infrastructure.

“Additionally, properties are also at risk of coastal erosion with over 60 percent of infrastructure being located within 100 metres of the coastline. Given the economic importance of tourism for The Bahamas, and for New Providence in particular, the risks of climate change have far-reaching implications for economic development.”